Jaguars @ Bills

Jaguars(+215) @ Bills (-260): O/U 48.5
Jaguars +5.5 (-110), Bills -5.5 (-110)

Writer’s Record:
Bet: 4-7 -2.9u
Lean: 7-4 +2.11u

This is the second London game of the season, so first and foremost make sure you have your lineups properly set.  Secondly, this has trap game written all over it.  The Bills are coming off a massive stomping of the Dolphins and it’s going to be impossible to match that same energy arcos the pond. We just saw the Commanders go toe-to-toe with the Eagles and then get blown out by the Bears four days later.  The NFL is a zig-zag league and you can never bank on the same thing happening once you change all the variables.  Having said that, if the Jags weren’t playing such terrible ball, this could have been one of the most exciting games of the year.  They beat the Falcons last week in London, but that’s not very impressive and their elite run D this season has them built for that matchup.  It’s through the air where the Jags are vulnerable and I would expect Josh Allen to continue to let it fly often and early.

Main Storylines to Watch

Where’s the Leap?: I’m not sure anyone who talked about the Jags this offseason went more than two sentences before saying the words leap, ascension or elite when talking about Trevor Lawrence.  So far this season he’s looked mediocre and consistently overthrown receivers, especially in the end zone.  Nobody is selling any Lawrence stock yet, but the weapons are there and the offensive line should get better this week with Cam Robinson returning.  This is a true test though after he no-showed vs. the Chiefs earlier in the season.  The Bills will be without star corner Tre’Davious White and potentially Jordan Poyer.  The are also getting back Von Miller so maybe it’s a wash in the end. If Lawrence is who we think he is, he should be stocked with gun powder for this cannon fight.   Young QBs usually make their mark by raising their game when it matters most and that’s usually how we sort between the Kirk Cousins and Pat Mahomes of the league.. Some are built for this and some are built for garbage time.

Allen the Unstoppable:  Everyone was gushing over the Dolphins and their 70 points all week and it seemed the Bills weren’t just listening, they also heard everyone jumping to crown the new shiny thing.  Is it more impressive to put up 70 points vs. the worst D in the league who stopped trying early in the game or put up 48 points on the “it” team and throw for over 300 yards on only 25 passing attempts.  Pat Mahomes is the best QB on the planet, but right now no one is touching Allen.  He’s surrounded by weapons that all seem to fit perfectly into an offense that hasn’t really even been tested yet.  Week 1 to the Jets we can just throw out, but otherwise it’s been three straight blowouts and Allen hasn’t had to do anything in the fourth quarter.  If the Jags can keep this close, it will be nice to see these QBs raise their games and have to put it all on the line.

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