Matchup Analysis – SportsEthos

Week 6 Fantasy Preview: Broncos @ Chiefs

Shane McCormick — Thu, 12 Oct 2023 01:40:51 +0000

Denver Broncos (1-4) @ Kansas City Chiefs (4-1)

ML Broncos (+400) @ Chiefs (-535): O/U 47.5
Broncos +10.5 (-110), Chiefs -10.5 (-110)

Writer’s Record:
Bet: 3-4
Lean: 7-4

The 4-1 Kansas City Chiefs start a stretch where they will take on the Denver Broncos (1-4) two out of the next three weeks. It’s been a rough stretch for the Broncos against the Chiefs, as they haven’t beaten them since 2015.

Main Storylines to Watch

What does the return of Javonte Williams do to the RB rotation? In the last two weeks, Jaleel McLaughlin has averaged 10.3 and 7.6 yards per carry. Last week, Samaje Perine had 10 touches. In his first three games, Javonte Williams had 13, 12, and 11 carries.

Is Travis Kelce going to be a safe start? Kelce battled through an ankle injury in last week’s win at Minnesota. He is officially listed as questionable for this game. The team played it safe in Week 1 and held him out. Will they do it again this week?

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Week 5 Monday Night Football Fantasy Preview: Packers @ Raiders

Keith Cork — Mon, 09 Oct 2023 17:01:03 +0000

Green Bay Packers (2-2) @ Las Vegas Raiders (1-3) Best Lines Available

Packers (+116) @ Raiders (-130): O/U 45.5
Packers +2.5 (-110), Raiders -2.5 (-105)

Writer’s Record:
Bet: 8-13 -5.39u
Lean: 9-6 +3.05u

Another Monday night football game is upon us! Let’s rally the troops and see what the Packers & Raiders have in store for us as the sole game on the slate. Some fantasy managers will be holding their collective breath as this one plays out, hoping for that big game to push them over the edge. I know I’m going against Jordan Love in a superflex league, so I’m hoping he throws up a dud, or at least less than 33 points (which is very likely).

Main Storylines to Watch

Packers Passing Attack: Jordan Love managed nearly 250 passing yards last week, but he also threw two interceptions and they did not look good, in general. The big storyline here is that everyone will be watching how the Packers utilize Christian Watson as he’s now back and in full action after an injury kept him out the first several weeks. Will Rome Doubs be dialed back or will he continue to be a target hog? Last week it seemed the latter would certainly be the case, but will one more week of building chemistry with his star receiver make Jordan Love trust Watson more?

Can the Raiders’ offense be at all competent? In the bottom five of the league in most metrics, this Raiders offense has struggled. We expected big things from Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs, and neither of those guys has come through for us at all. Jakobi Meyers has had big weeks, but Jimmy Garoppolo has yet to prove he can sustain any kind of offensive success for fantasy managers, and it’s hard to see that changing against a decent defense in the Packers.

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Week 5 Fantasy Preview: Saints @ Patriots

Keith Cork — Sun, 08 Oct 2023 05:05:30 +0000

New Orleans Saints (2-2) @ New England Patriots (1-3) Best Lines Available

Saints (-105) @ Patriots (-110): O/U 39
Saints +1 (-110), Patriots -1 (-105)

Writer’s Record:
Bet: 8-13 -5.39u
Lean: 9-6 +3.05u

Oh boy, a real barn burner? Not quite, but it’s always an interesting game when the Patriots, with Belichick at the helm, stare down a winnable game. This one should be circled as a winnable game, and the line for this game has been bouncing as much as we’ve seen in the past 24-48 hours. It’s truly a pick ’em at this point, which is exciting. There’s plenty of doubt for the Saints with a beaten-up Derek Carr or turnover-happy Jameis Winston as the two choices at quarterback at the moment. This Saints defense is slept on at this point and neither of these offenses is intimidating, to say the least. I expect a “muck-it-up” effort on both sides here.

Main Storylines to Watch

Derek Carr’s health: It was questionable to put him on the field last week, but will that have changed just a week later? Is their insistence on getting him out there some kind of indictment on how truly terrible Jameis Winston has been already this season? I have no faith whatsoever in this Saints team if they have to play with Winston under center, but he’s surprised me before. What’s more important to focus on for fantasy players are the weapons around the QBs and how they’re affected.

Can the Patriots put their faith in Mac Jones? The Mac Jones experience reached a new low last week as Mac Jones was benched in the third after a few costly turnovers. He was pretty good in Week 1, then he wasn’t again. He doesn’t have the holy grail of receiving rooms either, so this is really not a great offensive environment in any sense. Now Rhamondre Stevenson is questionable (though he’s expected to play.) Can the Patriots continue to place their trust in Mac Jones’s hands?

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Week 5 Fantasy Preview: Texans @ Falcons

Arnaldo Cadena — Sun, 08 Oct 2023 03:05:37 +0000

Houston Texans @ Atlanta Falcons Best Lines Available

Texans (+105) @ Falcons (-125): O/U 42.5 (-110)
Texans +1.5 (-110), Falcons -1.5 (-110)

Writer’s Record:
Leans: 1-5
BETS: 2-4

Main Storylines to Watch

Is CJ Stroud battle-tested? Stroud has been looking like one of the elite quarterbacks in the league. He’s gone up against a lot of great defenses and he’s been able to carve them up like a pumpkin, but is this just beginners luck? This week he’ll have the chance to play another defense that isn’t exactly elite but is strong. If Stroud is able to get past this defense with a solid fantasy performance, there would be no reason to assume that he isn’t battle-tested. I would even consider him a lock as a top-12 finishing QB. I know that sounds insane but if he can get it done again this week, that can very much be the outcome.

Can Desmond Ridder get past this Texans defense? This Texans defense is amongst the best at defending the pass. Desmond Ridder is amongst the worst at passing the ball. This may be a matchup made in hell, but this would be a great game to give Ridder the benefit of the doubt. They get to play at home, they get a weak rush defense (which should help with opening up the pass game for Ridder) and he made Jonnu Smith relevant again. I don’t know if he’ll have the greatest of days against this defense, but what we’re looking for is a serviceable performance. If we get it, that means that we can continue to start the pass catchers in Atlanta, but if not, we may begin to drift away from them.

Is the Texans best rush defense their offense? The quick answer is yes. The long answer is probably yes. The thing that the Texans have on their side is their strong pass defense and their offensive abilities. The Texans have been playing with the lead in the last two games which means that teams are passing the ball against them more often. If the Texans can continue to keep that up, we may see the running backs come out of this game without a great performance. It’s the Texans though, anything can happen, and with the running backs that the Falcons possess, we can’t rule them out.

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Week 5 Fantasy Preview: Panthers @ Lions

Jon Marsales — Sat, 07 Oct 2023 21:08:18 +0000

Carolina Panthers @ Detroit Lions

Panthers (+375) @ Lions (-500): O/U 44
Panthers +9.5 (-110), Lions -9.5 (-110)

Writer’s Record:
Bet: 4-7 -2.9u
Lean: 7-4 +2.11u

The world changes fast and nothing is more indicative of that than the Lions being nearly double-digits favorites at home. There is no doubt they are the real deal this season and the biggest reason why is the massive improvement on the defensive end. They were a joke on defense last season and teams routinely went up-and-down the field with ease. That is no longer the case as they are the number-four defense overall and potentially the best team against the run. The Panthers on the other hand are spiraling hard. They can’t seem to run the ball or stop the run or score the ball or stop opposing teams from scoring. Rookie Bryce Young looks flustered in the pocket and the only real bright spot is Adam Thielen. So far the Lions have been great at meeting expectations and rising to the challenge. Let’s see how they far when they are the heavy favorite and need to motivate themselves instead of using everyone else doubting them as fuel to their fire. This does seem like a nice matchup for them, but with Amon-Ra St. Brown unlikely to play, the Lions will need someone to step up. Paging TE phenom Sam LaPorta.

Main Storylines to Watch

Keep it Simple Stupid: The Lions love to pound the ball and the Panthers have so far proven they love to let teams gash them on the ground. The Lions don’t play mind games and you can bet they will come into this game with a plan to establish David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, which we all know will then open up the play-action game and all of the sudden the Panthers are down a TD and Aidan Hutchinson is on the prowl.

Is There No One Else?: The Panthers desperately need a hero and unless it’s a well bearded ginger, I don’t see their fortunes changing anytime soon. Miles Sanders has gotten worse with each game and Bryce Young isn’t looking like a surefire starter in this league. It’s still early for Young, but the Panthers are banged up on defense and pretty incompetent on offense. The Lion’s are a front-running team in a good way and they were born to play ahead and keep exploiting weaknesses. It’s a big number to cover, but the outcome of the game shouldn’t really be in doubt for this one,

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Week 5 Fantasy Preview: Jaguars @ Bills

Jon Marsales — Sat, 07 Oct 2023 21:07:00 +0000

Jaguars @ Bills

Jaguars(+215) @ Bills (-260): O/U 48.5
Jaguars +5.5 (-110), Bills -5.5 (-110)

Writer’s Record:
Bet: 4-7 -2.9u
Lean: 7-4 +2.11u

This is the second London game of the season, so first and foremost make sure you have your lineups properly set. Secondly, this has trap game written all over it. The Bills are coming off a massive stomping of the Dolphins and it’s going to be impossible to match that same energy arcos the pond. We just saw the Commanders go toe-to-toe with the Eagles and then get blown out by the Bears four days later. The NFL is a zig-zag league and you can never bank on the same thing happening once you change all the variables. Having said that, if the Jags weren’t playing such terrible ball, this could have been one of the most exciting games of the year. They beat the Falcons last week in London, but that’s not very impressive and their elite run D this season has them built for that matchup. It’s through the air where the Jags are vulnerable and I would expect Josh Allen to continue to let it fly often and early.

Main Storylines to Watch

Where’s the Leap?: I’m not sure anyone who talked about the Jags this offseason went more than two sentences before saying the words leap, ascension or elite when talking about Trevor Lawrence. So far this season he’s looked mediocre and consistently overthrown receivers, especially in the end zone. Nobody is selling any Lawrence stock yet, but the weapons are there and the offensive line should get better this week with Cam Robinson returning. This is a true test though after he no-showed vs. the Chiefs earlier in the season. The Bills will be without star corner Tre’Davious White and potentially Jordan Poyer. The are also getting back Von Miller so maybe it’s a wash in the end. If Lawrence is who we think he is, he should be stocked with gun powder for this cannon fight. Young QBs usually make their mark by raising their game when it matters most and that’s usually how we sort between the Kirk Cousins and Pat Mahomes of the league.. Some are built for this and some are built for garbage time.

Allen the Unstoppable: Everyone was gushing over the Dolphins and their 70 points all week and it seemed the Bills weren’t just listening, they also heard everyone jumping to crown the new shiny thing. Is it more impressive to put up 70 points vs. the worst D in the league who stopped trying early in the game or put up 48 points on the “it” team and throw for over 300 yards on only 25 passing attempts. Pat Mahomes is the best QB on the planet, but right now no one is touching Allen. He’s surrounded by weapons that all seem to fit perfectly into an offense that hasn’t really even been tested yet. Week 1 to the Jets we can just throw out, but otherwise it’s been three straight blowouts and Allen hasn’t had to do anything in the fourth quarter. If the Jags can keep this close, it will be nice to see these QBs raise their games and have to put it all on the line.

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Week 5 Fantasy Preview: Cowboys @ 49ers

Brian Shade — Sat, 07 Oct 2023 18:03:53 +0000

Dallas Cowboys (3-1) @ San Francisco 49ers (4-0)

Lines Available

Cowboys(+160) @ 49ers(-192): O/U 45.0
Cowboys +3.5(-108), 49ers -3.5(-112)

The San Francisco 49ers (4-0) host the Dallas Cowboys (3-1) on Sunday night in what is widely expected to be the game of the week. The Cowboys have been dominating their opponents other than the Week 3 slip-up against the Arizona Cardinals. The 49ers won all of their games by more than a touchdown other than the Rams’ last-second cover in Week 2 to make it a seven-point game.

Writer’s Record
Leans: 2-13 -8.85u
Bets: 9-7 +1.34u

Main Storylines to Watch

Can the 49ers stay undefeated against their hardest opponent yet? The 49ers are undefeated through four games but have yet to beat a team that has a winning record through four games. This is by far the best team the 49ers will have played. Sunday night should be an amazing matchup and one of the most hyped matchups of the season so far.

Will the Cowboys get revenge for their playoff loss from last season? The Cowboys lost to the 49ers 19 to 12 in the divisional round of the playoffs last season. The Cowboys are coming into this matchup making it known this is not just another game, while the 49ers are considering this to be just another game. Do the extra emotions on the Cowboys’ end give them an edge or be a burden?

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Week 5 Fantasy Preview: Eagles @ Rams

Brian Shade — Sat, 07 Oct 2023 15:18:38 +0000

Philadelphia Eagles (4-0) @ Los Angeles Rams (2-2)

Lines Available

Eagles(-205) @ Rams(+170): O/U 50.5
Eagles +4.0(-110), Rams -4.0(-110)

The undefeated Philadelphia Eagles (4-0) travel west to Los Angeles to play the Los Angeles Rams (2-2) on Sunday in the 4 PM EST slate of games. Both teams are coming off overtime wins in Week 4. The Eagles beat their division rival Washington Commanders and the Rams beat the Indianapolis Colts.

Writer’s Record
Leans: 2-13 -8.85u
Bets: 9-7 +1.34u

Main Storylines to Watch

How does this Rams offensive line hold up against the Eagles’ defense? The Rams have surprised many with their effectiveness on offense despite coming into the year starting many names unknown to the average fan. The Rams’ offensive line has let up nine sacks through the first four games. The running game has been pretty inefficient as well averaging below three yards per carry. The Eagles’ defensive line has been a bright spot for their defense. If they can dominate the Rams’ offensive line, it will be a long day for this Rams offense.

How does the Eagles’ secondary hold up against these Rams wide receivers? Through four weeks, the Philadelphia Eagles have been a top-five matchup for opposing wide receivers. They experimented with James Bradberry at slot, but the Eagles added veteran slot corner Bradley Roby during the past week. With Cooper Kupp expected to return, the secondary will have its hands full as Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell have shined in their increased roles.

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Week 5 Fantasy Preview: Bengals @ Cardinals

Sean Ryder — Sat, 07 Oct 2023 15:16:37 +0000

Cincinnati Bengals (1-3) @ Arizona Cardinals (1-3) Best Lines Available

Bengals (-160) @ Cardinals (+142): O/U 44.5 (-110)
Bengals -3.0 (-110), Cardinals +3 (-105)

Writer’s Record:
Bet: 6-6 +0.4u
Lean: 3-5 -1.27u

An unexpected, slow start from the Bengals due in no small part to QB Joe Burrow’s calf injury has left them in what feels like a must-win game early in the year. The team started slow last year, but the uphill climb is as daunting as ever for a team with back to back division wins and AFCCG visits. On the other hand, the Cardinals were expected to be one of the weakest links in the NFL this year and while the record still reflects that, they have been able to keep their games competitive and exciting, giving fans hope for the team’s next chapter.

Main Storylines to Watch

Will Ja’Marr Chase be able to survive as a fantasy asset if the Bengals continue to struggle? If not for his big name, Chase fits the bill as the ultimate buy-low target. The draft capital invested in Chase in this year’s fantasy drafts likely sees managers struggling and in need of a shakeup, but also viewing Chase’s inevitable turnaround as their biggest potential savior. It is not unheard of for good teams to have an off year due to injury and then restock in the draft, think 2020 49ers, but are the Bengals in that much danger or is this just a bump in the road for a star QB/WR duo?

Is Josh Dobbs a surefire start now, or will the film catch up with him? Every year there are surprise fantasy contributors who nobody saw coming and Josh Dobbs seems to be the man for the job this year. He has always had the rushing upside that is that helping him produce, but he looks sharp in the passing game as well. Will defensive coordinators catch on to what the Cardinals are up to and shut it down, or can he be trusted to keep things going all year?

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Arizona Cardinals

QB

Josh Dobbs: Dobbs has come through now against the two toughest opponents in the league in consecutive weeks, the Cowboys and 49ers respectively. He appears, for the moment, to be matchup proof for fantasy and I think everyone should be tired of missing out. The Bengals defense has limited QB scoring so far, but Dobbs has shown he can get the job done on his legs and through the air. This may be the last call for the hype train on Dobbs and missing the final opportunity could prove costly, especially in Superflex leagues.

RB

James Conner: Conner was slowed down a bit by the 49ers last week, but it was nothing much more than a bump in the road for a player who has returned great value for his draft position. The offense has been clicking lately and Conner is a big part of that. He carries huge TD upside as a strong bruiser back, with his only real competition being Dobbs’s ability to run one in at the goal line. I think we can start Conner with confidence here, especially with options limited in the first week of byes.

WR

Marquise Brown: Hollywood has produced outside of a slow Week 1 and has a safe volume floor now that even without a score last week, he provided a great fantasy line. If he continues to see around 10 targets like he has in half of his games, it will be hard to leave Hollywood on the bench. Dobbs clearly likes him, so as long as the connection is working, we can fire it up and feel pretty good.

Michael Wilson: The rookie WR got involved heavily in the loss to San Francisco. He possesses a different skillset compared to that of the other receivers for Arizona as the big bodied receiver he is, helping him to carve out his own role and not need to compete directly with some of the other names we have come to know in fantasy like Greg Dortch. He had not seen much volume outside of last week’s seven targets and it is tough to say whether that was due to a wildly negative game script that saw Dobbs throwing 41 passes, by far his most of the year. Wilson is certainly worth keeping an eye on and could be scooped up to see if he can continue to impress as he gets settled in for his rookie year.

TE

Zach Ertz: Ertz was productive against the 49ers and saw 10 targets in the blowout loss. His six receptions for 53 yards was similar to his Week 1 performance, which was great to see. It seems there is room in this offense for Ertz, especially when the Cardinals are playing catchup, and he is worth a roster spot. There was concern that an injury would keep him out of Week 4, but he made it back and produced. It would not be ideal to be forced into starting Ertz on a weekly basis, but it could certainly be worse.

Cincinnati Bengals

QB

Joe Burrow: Evaluation of Joey Franchise has been difficult as he looks to be clearly limited by the calf injury suffered during the offseason, but continues to claim it has not hampered his accuracy, but just his mobility. Burrow is not the type who likes to make excuses, but his deep ball has been off and the lack of movement has left him scared in the pocket on many occasions. It felt like he was trending in the right direction until last week the Titans held him to a mere 165 yards passing in a beatdown loss. We know Burrow is capable of being a top QB in fantasy, but for now it is going to be risky to trot him out there every week. Fantasy managers should exercise caution likely until after the Bengals Week 7 bye.

RB

Joe Mixon: Mixon was the only member of the offense who seemed to be capable of moving the ball during Titans game. Averaging 4.8 yards per carry was nice to see as the Bengals need to find some way to discourage pass rush on their hobbled QB. In weeks past as well, when the Bengals do not abandon the run game, the offense looks much better. Mixon has a floor value to him that makes him startable and with the Bengals feeling like they have their backs against the wall, I expect the offense to be more productive than last week.

WR

Ja’Marr Chase: The best game of the year for Cincinnati saw Ja’Marr Chase with 15 targets and 141 yards, perhaps the best option is to put the ball in their best player’s hands. Even in the bad games, Chase has been receiving enough volume to start, we have just only seen the overall WR2 type production the one time and he is yet to find the end zone. Nevertheless, Chase should be started and it is only a matter of time before he has another huge performance, especially while running-mate Tee Higgins deals with a rib injury.

Tee Higgins: Higgins is questionable to play on Sunday with a rib injury after a boom or bust start to the season that has seen many more busts. It would be just like him to have a monster performance this week when there is so much doubt circling, but that is part of the game we play as Higgins managers. Starting him feels riskier than ever with potentially rough QB play and an offense that desperately needs to get back on track. As far as lottery tickets go, he may be one of the best options and could help you recover if you had the displeasure of facing a Fields/Moore stack on Thursday night.

TE

Irv Smith Jr.: Smith Jr. has not been involved much in the offense and should not be considered a startable asset. The TE role has not been prioritized at all in the passing game for Cincinnati to start the year.

Betting Insight

PLEASE NOTE: This is intended for entertainment purposes. This is not intended as gambling advice. If you are looking for gambling advice from professionals, please sign up for the SportsEthos WagerPass. These are the thoughts of our fantasy football division experts, and some are sure to be better than others.

l know what I am getting myself into by diving all the way in on Joshua Dobbs this week, but it is a risk I am willing to live and die by. Dobbs will face, on paper, his easiest matchup in three weeks. I do, however think the Cardinals defense will be vulnerable and the do-or-die nature of the matchup for Cincinnati will push them to cover.

BET: Cincinnati Bengals MoneyLine (-160) (1.6u to win 1u) (Bet365)
BET: Joe Mixon Over 68.5 Rushing Yards (-114) (1.14u to win 1u) (FanDuel)
BET: Over 44.5 (-110) (1.1u to win 1u) (Bet365)
BET: Joshua Dobbs Anytime TD Scorer (+270) 1u to win 2.7u (FanDuel)
BET: Joshua Dobbs Over 214.5 Passing Yards (-114) 1.14u to win 1u (FanDuel)

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Week 5 Fantasy Preview: Ravens @ Steelers

Sean Ryder — Sat, 07 Oct 2023 15:14:21 +0000

Baltimore Ravens (3-1) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) Best Lines Available

Ravens (-200) @ Steelers (+176): O/U 38.5 (-110)
Ravens -4.0 (-110), Steelers +4 (-110)

Writer’s Record:
Bet: 6-6 +0.4u
Lean: 3-5 -1.27u

Steelers QB Kenny Pickett suffered a bone bruise in his knee during last week’s loss and their offense as a whole has been subpar. Meanwhile, Lamar Jackson is coming off a huge day in which he found Mark Andrews in the end zone twice as the Ravens put the hurt on the Browns. The next installment of a bitter rivalry is set for what could put the Ravens way ahead of the pack in the AFC North, or see the Steelers tied for the lead.

Main Storylines to Watch

Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews: A match made in heaven? Lamar Jackson is the fantasy QB4 on the year after the quarter point of the season and Mark Andrews is TE1. Andrews missed Week 1 and had a quiet Week 3, but still is ahead of pack. Will this stack continue to dominate and pay off for fantasy managers who took an early onesie stack?

Can we trust any Pittsburgh players? The Steelers offensive weapons have been lackluster so far to say the least. The QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs have all failed to produce up to ADP. Granted, Diontae Johnson has been on IR for an extended period and Pat Freiermuth just went down last week. It seems a weak offensive line and substandard QB play has held back all position groups so far, can they rebound and prove valuable for fantasy?

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