Buccaneers(+205) @ Vikings(-230): O/U 46.0
Buccaneers +5.5 (-110), Vikings -5.5 (-110)

Happy Week One Sunday to all!  Points Points Points.  I expect there to be a lot of disgusting games in week one.  That said, I could see this Vikings-Bucs matchup being the highest-scoring game of the slate.  Historically, you think of the Vikings having a scary defense in a tough home environment.  Do not have those expectations anymore because this is one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  Honestly, I don’t see the Bucs having one that is much better.  I see two gunslinger quarterbacks with great receiving corps and two turnover-dependent defenses that are going to ease into the season by giving up an easy 30 points.

Main Storylines to Watch

What Vikings team are we going to see this year? If you follow the Fantasy Road Show, then you how I feel about the Vikings this year.  I believe you are going to see a much different football team than the one we saw last season which won 11 one-score games.  Replacing Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook in your offense is going to experience a learning curve.  Thielen has been a Viking since 2014 and Dalvin Cook since 2017.  I do like the receiving pieces they have added in Addison and Hockenson but you cannot expect the rookie to step in for Thielen and not skip a beat.  Mattison to me is just not an impressive running back.  He is going to get you the yards given to him but he is by no means a playmaker in which you had in Dalvin Cook.  Combine all of that with the schedule to start the season for the Vikings and I am projecting them to finish last in the NFC North.  Bringing us back to this game, I think this is a sneaky must-win game for the Vikings whose next two games are at Philadelphia and home against the Chargers who I think could win the AFC this year.  You do not want to start the season 0-3 as we’ve seen teams fall into quicksand from there with their next two home games against the Chiefs and Niners.

How real is the Bucs rebuild?  Real enough that they brought in Baker Mayfield as their starting quarterback.  That said, I’m excited to see how he manages an offense consisting of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.  I am also excited to see if Mike Evans is a Buc this entire season.  If you’re the Bucs, you need to have a real conversation with Evans to see if he values retiring a Buccaneer or winning a championship more.  Then, you need to either trade him to a contender or pay him a respectful extension.  That is what Mike Evans and his nine straight 1000-yard seasons mean to the franchise.  You want to be known as a franchise that takes care of their Hall of Fame players, end of story.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

QB

Baker Mayfield (QB21): Baker Magic will be on full display against a bad defense in the Vikings.  Baker was on my GREEN LIGHT list this week as I think this will be one of those games where you hear the narrative from mainstream media “Is Baker back?” only to follow it up with a 3 interception game at Philadelphia in week 3.  If you are still in the age of streaming quarterbacks, put Baker on your shortlist but that is getting pretty desperate, in my opinion.

RB

Rachaad White (RB13):  Another Buccaneer sitting on my GREEN LIGHT list for this week.  Rachaad is going to benefit from Baker Mayfield checking down to his running back more than any other QB in the NFL.  Rachaad is arguably one of the best-receiving backs in the NFL so I truly think he has a chance to catch 80balls this year.  Expect him to eat early & often in this game and find himself in the endzone during this high-scoring game.

WR

Mike Evans (WR29) & Chris Godwin (WR17):  Mike Evans is professional enough to emotionally set aside contract negotiations to do what he does and ball out.  If Mike Evans extends his streak to 10 seasons with 1,000 yards receiving then he will need games where he goes off for 150+ and this could be one of them.  Godwin is a target hog and expect to see him have a huge game in Minnesota.  I am not a DFS expert but I imagine the Bucs stack has a low ownership percentage and has the potential to be a week winner.  There is a scenario where Baker throws for 300+ 3tds and the majority of that goes to Evans & Godwin.

TE

Cade Otton (not in top30): Irrelevant, he will live on your league’s waiver wire regardless of depth.

Vikings

QB

Kirk Cousins (QB10):  KirkCo cannot ask for a much better week one matchup to start the season.  The Bucs could easily be one of the worst teams in the NFL this year and you get them at home.  Time to step up and show off your new look offense and showcasing your new offensive weapons.

RB

Alexander Mattison (RB22): I am not the biggest Mattison guy in the world but the theme of this article is points.  If Mattison finds the endzone, he’s in store for a huge day.

WR

Justin Jefferson (WR1): Top receiver in the NFL gets a cupcake matchup in week one.

Jordan Addison (WR46): Addison is going to have the opportunity to start his NFL career off with a bang.  This is going to be one of the storylines I follow in this game. How does the rookie wide receiver fit into the offense early in what should be a relatively easy matchup for him?

K.J. Osborn (WR56): K.J. is the receiver (over Addison) that I think has the ability to catch his way into the top 5 this week.  I could easily see Osborn breaking free for two touchdowns 40+ and finding himself in a 8/150/2 type of opening game.

TE

T.J. Hockenson (TE1): Hock has now been paid and it’s time to show the world why you’re the most expensive TE in the league.  If Cousins continues to target Hockenson the way he did at the end of last season, then he will be a lock for a top 3 fantasy tight end.

Betting Insight

Hammer the over 46.  I could sit here and dig up potential prop bets for you but save yourself the time.  Take a look at yourself in the mirror and ask “how many units do I want to bet on the Vikings/Bucs week one?” then put that on the over.

BET: Game Total O46 points (-110) 1.1u to win 1u (available everywhere)

Recap

The Vikings exceeded all regular season expectations this year. They finished the season 13-4, smashing their preseason 9.5 win over/under. Kevin O’Connell took over a disappointing team with a lot of talent and completely turned them around. O’Connell preached situational awareness to his squad, which helped them set an NFL record by going 11-0 in one-score games. Although many think this is a fraudulent squad going into the playoffs, there is no denying this was a great first step in the new Kevin O’Connell era. 

Fantasy Star

It’s not very difficult to name the Vikings’ fantasy MVP for the season. Justin Jefferson somehow exceeded his 108 catch, 1,616 yard, and 10 touchdown sophomore season, with a year that is worthy of an Offensive Player of the Year award. Jefferson played all 17 games this season, catching 128 out of 184 targets for 1,809 yards and eight scores. This season was good enough to lead the NFL in targets, catches, yards, and receptions of 20-plus and 40-plus yards. Jefferson finished as the top-ranked receiver in standard scoring and PPR leagues, and he looks to be a consensus top-5 pick in redraft leagues next year. 

Fantasy Letdown

Adam Thielen came into the year with high expectations in this new, pass-heavy offense. Instead, Thielen caught just 70-of-107 targets for 716 yards and six touchdowns, which resulted in his lowest outputs in a full season since 2015. Thielen is on the wrong side of 30, and even though he’s still a great red zone threat, he has taken a backseat to Jefferson, TJ Hockenson, and sometimes KJ Osborn. Going into next year, Thielen can’t be looked at as anything more than a WR3 in fantasy, assuming he’s still with the Vikings. 

Burning Questions

Despite their 13-3 record, the Vikings were the most negatively-viewed team in the playoffs this year. The Vikings became the first 13-win team in NFL history to finish with a negative point differential, largely due to their three blowout losses to the hands of the Eagles, Packers, and Cowboys. The Giants were one of the most popular bets for Wild Card weekend (for good reason), as the Vikings came in as three-point favorites. If the Vikings are able to truly compete on the national stage, they’ll have major questions to answer on the defensive side of the ball this offseason as they were by far the worst defensive unit out of all postseason squads as we saw during their loss to the Giants.

Detroit Lions

Recap

The Lions came into the season fresh off of a 3-13-1 season and with Dan Campbell on the hot seat. They now leave the season as a 9-8 team, and one of the most trendy teams in the NFL. After starting out 1-6, the Lions’ offense caught fire, leading them to an 8-2 finish. This season was capped off with a 20-16 win in Lambeau Field to knock the Packers out of the playoffs. Jared Goff led this offense to a top-5 scoring season, which proved to be just enough to carry their defense to an above-.500 record. The future is very bright for Dan Campbell and this Lions franchise. 

Fantasy Star

Amon-Ra St. Brown followed up a great rookie year with an even better sophomore season. Despite missing two games, St. Brown caught 106-of-146 passes for 1,161 yards and six touchdowns while adding 95 rushing yards. St. Brown proved to be the top option in this passing game, and he put up huge numbers despite playing in one of the best rushing offenses in the league. St. Brown should only improve from here, and with his continuity with Jared Goff only improving, his fantasy ceiling is higher than his WR7 finish this year. 

Fantasy Letdown

Jameson Williams came into this season after the Lions traded up to take him 12th overall in the NFL Draft. Most NFL fans knew he likely would start the season on the PUP list, but he didn’t return until Week 13. Fantasy managers waited for Williams to return with sky-high expectations, but in reality, there was no need to hold him on a roster this year. Once he came back, Williams only saw nine targets in six games. He caught just one pass for 41 yards and a touchdown while adding a rush attempt for 40 yards. Williams’ speed is unreal, and he clearly wasn’t fully healthy this year. Despite this discouraging season, Williams still has a ton of upside once he can get healthy and learn this offense. 

Burning Questions

How will the Lions improve their defense this offseason? This Lions’ defense allowed 25.1 points per game, which tied for third-worst in the league behind only the Cardinals and Bears. The Lions have a ton of ammo to use this offseason, as they have both the sixth and 18th overall pick in the NFL Draft. The Lions project to have a little over $18 million in cap space in 2023, which is just outside of the top-10. The Lions will likely move on from some veterans with the potential to add two first-round picks to this already young defense. These draft picks, combined with efficient spending in free agency, could make the Lions a scary threat in the NFC as soon as next year. 

Green Bay Packers

Recap

After three straight 13-win seasons to start the Matt LaFleur era in Green Bay, things are starting to look dim. The Packers went 8-9, missing the playoffs for the first time under this administration. Part of the blame for this poor season can be placed on Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers threw for 3,695 yards which was his lowest output in a full season in his career, while he also threw for his lowest touchdown output (26) since 2019. Rodgers also threw 12 interceptions, his most since 2008, while having his lowest passer rating and quarterback rating as a full-time starter. Green Bay was around a league-average defense, but a poor rush defense and passing game led them to an 8-9 record in what could be Aaron Rodgers’ last season as a Packer.

Fantasy Star

Aaron Jones had an up-and-down season despite getting a lot of work. Jones got his production in different ways than in years past, as he set career-highs in rushing and receiving yards while having great efficiency metrics. Jones, however, has had great touchdown rates in his career, but he was only able to find the end zone twice on the ground and five times through the air this season. This was his lowest touchdown production since his rookie year in 2017 when he only started four games. Jones wasn’t healthy the whole season, but he didn’t miss a game. With average touchdown luck from his career, this could’ve been a league-winning year for Jones. Instead, he finished as the ninth-ranked back in fantasy, which is good enough to be the Packers’ team fantasy MVP.

Fantasy Letdown

Robert Tonyan came into this year after only starting five games in 2021, largely due to injuries. With Tonyan back and healthy, many fantasy managers thought Tonyan may return to his 2020 form. Instead, Tonyan was not involved in this offense, as he only started three games, despite playing in all 17. Tonyan caught 53-of-67 passes for 470 yards and two touchdowns, finishing as the TE20 on the year. There is not much hope for Tonyan in the future, as he is an impending free agent. There likely won’t be a big market for Tonyan, and he almost certainly won’t be the featured tight end if he leaves Green Bay. Even if he returns, the Packers clearly don’t see him as an integral part of their offense moving forward. 

Burning Questions

What will happen to Aaron Rodgers? The speculation began after the Packers’ loss to the Lions on Monday night. Rookie Jamison Williams asked Rodgers for his jersey, and he replied by saying he needed to hold onto that one. Then, cameras panned to Rodgers walking off the field, arm around Randall Cobb, as the two looked like they may have played their last game in their respective careers. Rodgers is coming off a poor season by his standards, and the Packers have to take a look a Jordan Love sooner rather than later. If Rodgers returns, the Packers will have to commit to either starting or trading Jordan Love, but so far, it seems as though Rodgers’ incredible career may have finally come to an end. 

Chicago Bears

Recap

There was very little reason for optimism for Chicago Bears fans coming into this year. Justin Fields was returning to a team with no surrounding cast after a horrendous rookie season, and they continued to lose defensive pieces. The Bears cleaned house, pairing new General Manager Ryan Pace with Matt Eberflus. They soon parted ways with franchise favorites Akeem Hicks, Roquan Smith, and Robert Quinn. This resulted in the Bears having arguably the worst defense in the NFL, and despite great moments from Justin Fields, their offense wasn’t good enough for them to be competitive. The Bears finished 3-14, giving them the first overall pick in the NFL Draft this upcoming April. 

Fantasy Star

Justin Fields had a very confusing season in 2022. Fields played in 15 games this year, and his passing numbers were horrendous. Fields completed just over 60% of passes for just 2,242 yards, 17 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. Fields looked lost throwing the ball for much of the year, as he struggled to set basic protections and failed to get the ball out early behind one of the worst offensive lines in football. Fields’ rushing production, however, was incredible. Fields carried the ball 160 times for 1,143 yards and eight touchdowns, falling just short of the single-season NFL rushing yard record for a quarterback. Fields showed flashes of being one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the NFL, but his future upside depends on his ability to improve in the passing game. If he can even become a league-average passer, Fields has MVP upside in his future. 

Fantasy Letdown

Darnell Mooney had a ton of offseason hype after catching 81 passes for 1,055 yards and four touchdowns a year ago. Mooney made the most out of a horrible offense in 2021, and a full offseason with Fields left fantasy managers excited about his upside. Mooney was taken around the turn of the fourth and fifth rounds in most drafts, and he wasn’t startable most weeks. Mooney only played 12 games due to injury, but he only caught 40 passes for 493 yards and two touchdowns in those games. Mooney’s poor production came from a confusing lack of targets in one of the most run-heavy offenses in football, as well as inaccuracy and poor reads from Justin Fields. A Darnell Mooney resurgence in 2023 largely depends on what steps Fields takes as a passer. 

Burning Questions

What will the Bears do with the first overall pick? Recent reports suggest the Bears will look at quarterbacks, but they would have to be absolutely blown away to take one. Teams will likely have an interest in leap-frogging the Texans at two to take Bryce Young, but the Bears will have the last call on what to do. It is very likely that the Bears will take a defensive player or trade the first pick away, but there is always a chance that they take a quarterback and trade Justin Fields. A trade could land the Bears a ridiculous amount of draft capital and set them up extremely well for the future since they also have the most cap space in football going into this offseason. The Bears may not factor into the postseason in 2022, but they’ll be in focus following the Super Bowl as one of the most interesting teams to monitor this offseason.