Lions(+205) @ Chiefs(-250): O/U 53.0
Chiefs -5.0 (-110), Lions +5.0(-110)

Football is back! The Kansas City Chiefs begin their title defense at home against a Lions squad that barely missed the playoffs last year, but won five of their final six. The latest news surrounding a knee hyperextension for star TE Travis Kelce may leave Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes without his favorite target. Furthermore, Chiefs DT Chris Jones is currently holding out and his status is in doubt for the season opener, greatly hampering the KC defense. The Lions’ defense was horrendous in coverage a year ago but added DBs in the offseason to help remedy the situation. This game currently has the highest over/under point total of all Week 1 games. The point spread was as high as -6.5 in favor of the Chiefs, but has fallen 1.5 points mostly thanks to the Travis Kelce news.

Main Storylines to Watch

What do the Chiefs do without Travis Kelce? It’s looking like Kelce won’t suit up, though his MRI did come back clean, which is good news for him and Chiefs fans. It will be interesting to see how Noah Gray does trying to fill the Travis Kelce role. Blake Bell will also be there, but he’s not really on the fantasy radar in any way. It will be even more interesting to learn how the Chiefs wide receivers and starting running back Isaiah Pacheco operate without the focus Kelce demands. Will Kadarius Toney step into a larger role? Will Skyy Moore? Kelce gets such a large volume of targets from QB Patrick Mahomes, that there will be plenty of opportunities for others on the roster.

Lions Running Back Room. It’s rumored that Jahmyr Gibbs may be a deep threat for the Lions in the passing game, but the question remains how involved he’ll be in the rush game as the RB1. Who will operate as the goalline back, Gibbs or David Montgomery? The talent is undeniable with Gibbs, but we have to see what his workload looks like to see if he’ll live up to his lofty draft-day expectations.

Detroit Lions

QB

Jared Goff: The Lions QB has a chance to get off to a hot start against a KC defense that will likely be without centerpiece DT Chris Jones. Jones is disruptive to all facets of an opposing offense and without him, Goff will certainly see cleaner pockets and have more freedom to allow routes to develop. Goff was not drafted as a QB1 lock week in and out, but he will look to start hot by finding Amon-Ra St. Brown early and often while working in rookie TE Sam LaPorta and the rest of the Lions’ talented receivers. Chiefs CB L’Jarius Sneed is nursing a knee injury which can only further boost confidence in Goff’s season debut.

RB

Jahmyr Gibbs & David Montgomery: The timeshare at RB for the Lions remains a mystery until we see them in action. Detroit elected to use the twelfth overall pick on Gibbs, a rookie out of Alabama, and will likely give him a hefty dose of work in his debut. Gibbs profiles to be useful in the passing game, giving him a boost in value in PPR formats, but Montgomery is the bigger, power back who may receive the goal line work and take the top off what would otherwise be a tremendous ceiling for the rookie. Gibbs still has big play capability keeping his upside intact. Montgomery, on the other hand, should receive some carries but is likely a more risky play until we can confirm he has the TD upside currently projected. If DT Chris Jones does not elect to play, both RBs values rise drastically as the middle of the line of scrimmage opens up.

WR

Amon-Ra St. Brown: Coming off a WR7 finish in PPR a year ago, St. Brown is poised for another exciting year. With Jameson Williams suspended to begin the year, he remains the only elite target in the offense until another player can step forward and earn more targets. For now, Amon-Ra should be locked and loaded as a high-floor WR1 play week in and week out. If L’Jaruis Sneed, KC CB, is unable to go or is hampered on Thursday, the ceiling of ARSB will shoot through the roof. Start him comfortably and watch the points roll in.

TE

Sam LaPorta: Another rookie to the Lions offense, the Iowa product will look to make a statement to start his career. Iowa has produced great TEs in the past, George Kittle for example, and LaPorta is a quality prospect. Rookie TEs in general typically take a while to get moving, often not getting truly going for fantasy purposes until their second year, but LaPorta has the opportunity to demand targets immediately with WR Jameson Williams suspended to begin the year. The rookie represents a low-floor play with upside and has the biggest frame out of the team’s receiving options, perhaps giving him the opportunity to be a red-zone threat.

Chiefs

QB

Patrick Mahomes:  What more can be said of the two-time MVP, two-time Super Bowl champion and two-time Super Bowl MVP? Mahomes is the best at his position in the league and will continue to be consistent in fantasy. Facing a Lions secondary that struggled massively against the pass a year ago leaves Patrick ready to dice them up and put up a head-turning point total. The only issue coming down the pipe is the health of TE Travis Kelce. Mahomes is the type of QB who will create regardless of his weapons, but Kelce is special and certainly impacts the ceiling of Mahomes. He remains a high floor play, just know that if Kelce is unable to go, Mahomes may not finish as the QB1 this week. He is absolutely still startable and should be trusted until he flops.

RB

Isiah Pacheco: After a strong season last year, Pacheco has been nagged by minor injuries throughout the offseason but is ready to roll for Week 1. Pieces of the Chiefs’ offense are coveted in fantasy leagues due to the sheer output of points by this team in recent years. Pacheco could be a beneficiary of TE Travis Kelce’s injury as many targets would be vacated should he not suit up. The Chiefs’ offense will likely be pass-focused, but Pacheco will be a nice change of pace and should see a solid enough volume of work to finish as an RB2 on the week with TD upside.

WR

Kadarius Toney & Richie James: News broke recently of both Toney and James being limited in practice with knee injuries on Monday. With Thursday looming, it will be hard to trust either to be meaningful for fantasy purposes with the KC WR room having been a game of roulette for several years. The ceiling is always there for these players but no floor is safe. Trend away from these two if the news does not drastically improve before TNF.

Skyy Moore: After a lackluster rookie campaign, Moore has a chance to make a huge impact with injuries plaguing most of the receiving options in Kansas City. To start him this early in the season would surely be risky, but it could be his best chance to get comfortable with Mahomes and establish a rapport for his coming sophomore season.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling & Rashee Rice: Similarly to Moore, MVS and Rice have opportunities to shine while others are banged up. high ceiling, low floor is the name of the game for Chiefs WRs. Start them at your own risk, but most fantasy rosters should have better options in Week 1 with no players on bye and minimal injuries. MVS has the advantage of being the veteran and has worked with Mahomes before, while Rice is more of a wildcard as he makes his NFL debut and we have no idea what his snap count will look like.

TE

Travis Kelce: Trouble. Tuesday’s practice brought about a hyperextended knee for the quintessential TE1 of the NFL. The severity of the injury is not yet known, but reports lean towards Kelce being doubtful to suit up for the regular season opener on Thursday. Fans and managers alike will hope for the best, but with the game approaching rapidly it is time to pivot so you are not caught standing in the rain.

Noah Gray: While Gray is not normally considered an important fantasy asset, he may see a massive increase in volume if Kelce sits. With nearly no injury history for Kelce dating back to his rookie year, we can only infer how the Chiefs will alter their gameplan. While Gray is certainly not the player Kelce is, it is likely they will try to run a similar gameplan and Gray will be counted on to make some plays. Mahomes loves to look to the TE position in an offensive playbook that revolves around Kelce. Starting Gray would be risky but could pay off big for a week or longer if Kelce remains out.

Betting Insight

While the line has been fluctuating on this game due to the injury news, I find myself leaning Lions +5 (-110), with a strong temptation to throw down on the Lions moneyline for the plus money (+205). The Chiefs are still one of, if not the best team on paper again this year, but if both Chris Jones and Travis Kelce miss, the Lions have a great opportunity to win or keep within a field goal to cash against the spread. Detroit was 12-5 against the spread in 2022, covering over 70% of the time. While they were a bit of a dark horse last year compared to being division favorites this season, there is still money to be made on what should be a powerful offense and improved defense after the addition of DBs CJ Gardner-Johnson, Cameron Sutton and Emmanuel Moseley. The only factor holding me back from declaring a lock for the Lions ATS is one man: Patrick Mahomes.

Lean: Lions +5 (-110) – DraftKings
Lean: Lions ML (+205) – FanDuel

Recap

The Vikings exceeded all regular season expectations this year. They finished the season 13-4, smashing their preseason 9.5 win over/under. Kevin O’Connell took over a disappointing team with a lot of talent and completely turned them around. O’Connell preached situational awareness to his squad, which helped them set an NFL record by going 11-0 in one-score games. Although many think this is a fraudulent squad going into the playoffs, there is no denying this was a great first step in the new Kevin O’Connell era. 

Fantasy Star

It’s not very difficult to name the Vikings’ fantasy MVP for the season. Justin Jefferson somehow exceeded his 108 catch, 1,616 yard, and 10 touchdown sophomore season, with a year that is worthy of an Offensive Player of the Year award. Jefferson played all 17 games this season, catching 128 out of 184 targets for 1,809 yards and eight scores. This season was good enough to lead the NFL in targets, catches, yards, and receptions of 20-plus and 40-plus yards. Jefferson finished as the top-ranked receiver in standard scoring and PPR leagues, and he looks to be a consensus top-5 pick in redraft leagues next year. 

Fantasy Letdown

Adam Thielen came into the year with high expectations in this new, pass-heavy offense. Instead, Thielen caught just 70-of-107 targets for 716 yards and six touchdowns, which resulted in his lowest outputs in a full season since 2015. Thielen is on the wrong side of 30, and even though he’s still a great red zone threat, he has taken a backseat to Jefferson, TJ Hockenson, and sometimes KJ Osborn. Going into next year, Thielen can’t be looked at as anything more than a WR3 in fantasy, assuming he’s still with the Vikings. 

Burning Questions

Despite their 13-3 record, the Vikings were the most negatively-viewed team in the playoffs this year. The Vikings became the first 13-win team in NFL history to finish with a negative point differential, largely due to their three blowout losses to the hands of the Eagles, Packers, and Cowboys. The Giants were one of the most popular bets for Wild Card weekend (for good reason), as the Vikings came in as three-point favorites. If the Vikings are able to truly compete on the national stage, they’ll have major questions to answer on the defensive side of the ball this offseason as they were by far the worst defensive unit out of all postseason squads as we saw during their loss to the Giants.

Detroit Lions

Recap

The Lions came into the season fresh off of a 3-13-1 season and with Dan Campbell on the hot seat. They now leave the season as a 9-8 team, and one of the most trendy teams in the NFL. After starting out 1-6, the Lions’ offense caught fire, leading them to an 8-2 finish. This season was capped off with a 20-16 win in Lambeau Field to knock the Packers out of the playoffs. Jared Goff led this offense to a top-5 scoring season, which proved to be just enough to carry their defense to an above-.500 record. The future is very bright for Dan Campbell and this Lions franchise. 

Fantasy Star

Amon-Ra St. Brown followed up a great rookie year with an even better sophomore season. Despite missing two games, St. Brown caught 106-of-146 passes for 1,161 yards and six touchdowns while adding 95 rushing yards. St. Brown proved to be the top option in this passing game, and he put up huge numbers despite playing in one of the best rushing offenses in the league. St. Brown should only improve from here, and with his continuity with Jared Goff only improving, his fantasy ceiling is higher than his WR7 finish this year. 

Fantasy Letdown

Jameson Williams came into this season after the Lions traded up to take him 12th overall in the NFL Draft. Most NFL fans knew he likely would start the season on the PUP list, but he didn’t return until Week 13. Fantasy managers waited for Williams to return with sky-high expectations, but in reality, there was no need to hold him on a roster this year. Once he came back, Williams only saw nine targets in six games. He caught just one pass for 41 yards and a touchdown while adding a rush attempt for 40 yards. Williams’ speed is unreal, and he clearly wasn’t fully healthy this year. Despite this discouraging season, Williams still has a ton of upside once he can get healthy and learn this offense. 

Burning Questions

How will the Lions improve their defense this offseason? This Lions’ defense allowed 25.1 points per game, which tied for third-worst in the league behind only the Cardinals and Bears. The Lions have a ton of ammo to use this offseason, as they have both the sixth and 18th overall pick in the NFL Draft. The Lions project to have a little over $18 million in cap space in 2023, which is just outside of the top-10. The Lions will likely move on from some veterans with the potential to add two first-round picks to this already young defense. These draft picks, combined with efficient spending in free agency, could make the Lions a scary threat in the NFC as soon as next year. 

Green Bay Packers

Recap

After three straight 13-win seasons to start the Matt LaFleur era in Green Bay, things are starting to look dim. The Packers went 8-9, missing the playoffs for the first time under this administration. Part of the blame for this poor season can be placed on Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers threw for 3,695 yards which was his lowest output in a full season in his career, while he also threw for his lowest touchdown output (26) since 2019. Rodgers also threw 12 interceptions, his most since 2008, while having his lowest passer rating and quarterback rating as a full-time starter. Green Bay was around a league-average defense, but a poor rush defense and passing game led them to an 8-9 record in what could be Aaron Rodgers’ last season as a Packer.

Fantasy Star

Aaron Jones had an up-and-down season despite getting a lot of work. Jones got his production in different ways than in years past, as he set career-highs in rushing and receiving yards while having great efficiency metrics. Jones, however, has had great touchdown rates in his career, but he was only able to find the end zone twice on the ground and five times through the air this season. This was his lowest touchdown production since his rookie year in 2017 when he only started four games. Jones wasn’t healthy the whole season, but he didn’t miss a game. With average touchdown luck from his career, this could’ve been a league-winning year for Jones. Instead, he finished as the ninth-ranked back in fantasy, which is good enough to be the Packers’ team fantasy MVP.

Fantasy Letdown

Robert Tonyan came into this year after only starting five games in 2021, largely due to injuries. With Tonyan back and healthy, many fantasy managers thought Tonyan may return to his 2020 form. Instead, Tonyan was not involved in this offense, as he only started three games, despite playing in all 17. Tonyan caught 53-of-67 passes for 470 yards and two touchdowns, finishing as the TE20 on the year. There is not much hope for Tonyan in the future, as he is an impending free agent. There likely won’t be a big market for Tonyan, and he almost certainly won’t be the featured tight end if he leaves Green Bay. Even if he returns, the Packers clearly don’t see him as an integral part of their offense moving forward. 

Burning Questions

What will happen to Aaron Rodgers? The speculation began after the Packers’ loss to the Lions on Monday night. Rookie Jamison Williams asked Rodgers for his jersey, and he replied by saying he needed to hold onto that one. Then, cameras panned to Rodgers walking off the field, arm around Randall Cobb, as the two looked like they may have played their last game in their respective careers. Rodgers is coming off a poor season by his standards, and the Packers have to take a look a Jordan Love sooner rather than later. If Rodgers returns, the Packers will have to commit to either starting or trading Jordan Love, but so far, it seems as though Rodgers’ incredible career may have finally come to an end. 

Chicago Bears

Recap

There was very little reason for optimism for Chicago Bears fans coming into this year. Justin Fields was returning to a team with no surrounding cast after a horrendous rookie season, and they continued to lose defensive pieces. The Bears cleaned house, pairing new General Manager Ryan Pace with Matt Eberflus. They soon parted ways with franchise favorites Akeem Hicks, Roquan Smith, and Robert Quinn. This resulted in the Bears having arguably the worst defense in the NFL, and despite great moments from Justin Fields, their offense wasn’t good enough for them to be competitive. The Bears finished 3-14, giving them the first overall pick in the NFL Draft this upcoming April. 

Fantasy Star

Justin Fields had a very confusing season in 2022. Fields played in 15 games this year, and his passing numbers were horrendous. Fields completed just over 60% of passes for just 2,242 yards, 17 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. Fields looked lost throwing the ball for much of the year, as he struggled to set basic protections and failed to get the ball out early behind one of the worst offensive lines in football. Fields’ rushing production, however, was incredible. Fields carried the ball 160 times for 1,143 yards and eight touchdowns, falling just short of the single-season NFL rushing yard record for a quarterback. Fields showed flashes of being one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the NFL, but his future upside depends on his ability to improve in the passing game. If he can even become a league-average passer, Fields has MVP upside in his future. 

Fantasy Letdown

Darnell Mooney had a ton of offseason hype after catching 81 passes for 1,055 yards and four touchdowns a year ago. Mooney made the most out of a horrible offense in 2021, and a full offseason with Fields left fantasy managers excited about his upside. Mooney was taken around the turn of the fourth and fifth rounds in most drafts, and he wasn’t startable most weeks. Mooney only played 12 games due to injury, but he only caught 40 passes for 493 yards and two touchdowns in those games. Mooney’s poor production came from a confusing lack of targets in one of the most run-heavy offenses in football, as well as inaccuracy and poor reads from Justin Fields. A Darnell Mooney resurgence in 2023 largely depends on what steps Fields takes as a passer. 

Burning Questions

What will the Bears do with the first overall pick? Recent reports suggest the Bears will look at quarterbacks, but they would have to be absolutely blown away to take one. Teams will likely have an interest in leap-frogging the Texans at two to take Bryce Young, but the Bears will have the last call on what to do. It is very likely that the Bears will take a defensive player or trade the first pick away, but there is always a chance that they take a quarterback and trade Justin Fields. A trade could land the Bears a ridiculous amount of draft capital and set them up extremely well for the future since they also have the most cap space in football going into this offseason. The Bears may not factor into the postseason in 2022, but they’ll be in focus following the Super Bowl as one of the most interesting teams to monitor this offseason.