Every offseason, industry analysts love to speculate about which niche name is going to be the next to break out and become a stud. The thing is…you only ever hear these analysts brag when they predicted that Lauri Markkanen would suddenly go into beast mode out in the Great State of Deseret. You rarely read or hear anyone talk about how they thought Herb Jones was going to increase his usage greatly with both Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram out, because…well, that didn’t happen. It’s important to remember who and what you’re paying attention to with this sort of analysis: many people are too emotional, some are too calculated, nearly all of them have a decent, (mostly) healthy ego to factor into each player profile and roster construction. The deeper we dive into this fantasy world, the more some of us begin to fashion ourselves as real GMs. It’s silly, but it’s true.

So how do analysts come to these conclusions?

Often, this is a result of circumstance; for example, if a void is left to be filled, due to a big trade or a starter leaving in free agency, someone (or multiple individuals) obviously has to/have to soak up those minutes. One must ask oneself not only who was or were the backups in the previous season; one must also ask oneself how much this potential pickup might make sense on a real-life roster. A thing to remember is: as much fun as we have pretending to be front office executives, and as much as one of our guys we took a flier on at the end of the draft or scooped up from the waiver wire in week two might make us proud, fantasy basketball is still, in many ways, strongly impacted by and associated with the physical, mental, and emotional aspects of what happens in the real world between the players, the coaches, the front office, the owner(s), etc.

Why are there sometimes such disparities between fantasy production and real-life success?

How many times have we seen guys ball out so hard every time they get minutes, only to have those minutes be yanked away? I mean, think about it for a moment…Christian Wood is someone who immediately comes to mind. No matter how much we want to will someone like Wood into the starting five of a competitive team and see what he’s truly capable of doing, if the coach thinks he’s a ding-dong and/or the front office already invested the owner’s time and money into a guy – which really isn’t all that unusual or uncommon – it makes for an awkward situation (at best) for all parties. Wood recently has and will probably continue to get drafted in fantasy leagues (in any format) far earlier than he ought to go, reflecting the upside, rather than the likely continued string of subpar contexts. But whenever he is given the chance, he produces at a high level, in very significant ways, dominating inside the paint and making it rain from beyond the arc. However, he can’t stop watching players zip past him like he’s having a picnic on the grass infield at the Daytona International Speedway.

Fantasy managers tend to not care so much about RPM (Real Plus-Minus), PER (Player Efficiency Rating), VORP (Value Over Replacement Player), and other advanced metrics; however, we should (if we want to win, which makes playing more fun, of course). Every single NBA franchise has entire departments using analytics to make decisions about their personnel. You should do the layman’s version of that with your squad(s). You don’t need to know every acronym and what they all mean. But you should make note of some of these things when considering who to go after, whether it be a sleeper or a third-round pick. There’s a reason Alex Caruso is such a highly sought-after player in the real world – basically, he doesn’t make bad plays, which is in many ways, the opposite of the aforementioned Christian Wood.

Perhaps you ought to consider striking a balance between the two extremes when attempting to pinpoint potentially crucial players and extract as much value out of them as possible. From my experience, this will likely lead you to land on some of the less sexy names in the sport, such as Tobias Harris or Khris Middleton. But don’t forget that Middleton, specifically, has been named to multiple All-Star teams, and not just because he plays with Giannis (only partly because he plays with Giannis). He’s not exciting, nor does he have much upside; that said (recent injuries aside), guys like him (and Harris) will absolutely help you – at the very least – have a solid foundation, a high floor. They’re the types of players who allow you to take the bigger, riskier swings on rookies, sophomores, new players from other countries, etc. You need that roster balance to be as competitive as possible, week in and week out.

What are some other factors that cause analysts to get duped, and in turn, inadvertently dupe you?

Sometimes some people get tricked into thinking silly season or the Summer League are somehow indicative of something other than the fact that every single player who makes it far enough to compete on a professional level is ridiculously good at basketball, even though it sometimes doesn’t always seem like that’s the case (forcing myself to watch the number five pick of the 2015 draft, Mario Hezonja, was at times more painful than going through my divorce; seriously – even that guy, who “sucks,” is actually really, really good).

For real, though – just because a freak athlete, like Obi Toppin, dunks on the head of some rando, who was just recently called up from the G League, during the 4th quarter of some game at the end of March…well, that doesn’t mean that he’s going to blow the frick up once he moves from Manhattan to Hoosierville. He certainly could, but please don’t bank on it. If you look at the list of all the Summer League MVPs from the early days of the tournament until now, I must say…it’s quite impressive. But over the course of the past five years, Brandon Clarke, Cam Thomas, and Davion Mitchell are a few of the winners of the award. If you could combine all three of their skill sets, you’d probably have a first-round fantasy player; however, they’re all fairly one-dimensional (with Davion actively trying to further grow and develop his game) and none of them were ever going to and probably never will help you win your league(s).

So how do you find the ideal sleeper(s) for you?

Well, first of all, you need to watch basketball; like, I mean, actually watch basketball – pay attention to the on-court feel of players you might be interested in rostering, pay attention to various coaches’ rotations, and track patterns instead of blips (Kyle Anderson, the 2015 Summer League MVP, consistently getting peak Draymond numbers is something to seriously take note of and do something about; Cam Thomas scoring 40 points or more three games in a row was never ever going to be sustainable, and he quickly returned to the bench).

Of course, you can’t consume basketball and basketball-related content all day, every day. We all have lives – jobs, families, other hobbies, etc. So, in addition to using your eyes, find a few analysts with proven track records and listen to them; and again – try to pay attention to some of the more basic analytic models; they really are useful, despite what the old heads have to say.

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Now, to further illustrate my point as to how off the experts can be, I present to you:

The Five Worst Sleepers of the Past Five Years

Darius Bazley

Looking back, this one was such a unique combination of things: the Thunder were clearly tanking, they had no legit centers, and Bazley profiled as a spry and sturdy small-ball five option, who ostensibly could stretch the floor and swat some shots. Fantasy experts really ran with this one and convinced a bunch of people to overdraft him, and he was immediately a bust. His shooting percentages were mostly atrocious, and he could kind of get some blocks, but not really. He showed some flashes in the Thunder’s worst tanking moments, and he still has some people hoping he can eventually do something, but in all likelihood, he’ll be a journeyman from here on out.

Chris Boucher

Unlike Bazley, The Mighty Boosh lived up to his pre-draft hype…for a matter of, I dunno, two weeks? And then Nick Nurse, as he’s prone to do with non-starters, played with his minutes and his psyche. And as soon as fantasy managers got insane value for their late-round pick, it had completely dissipated. Toronto’s front office gave Boucher a very nice contract for a backup big, but Nurse essentially wasted the prime of his career and the time of every fantasy manager who held out hope for the rail-thin stretch big to be their baby unicorn of the North.

Bones Hyland

This one is personal for me. I received my master’s degree from VCU, so I had high hopes for Bizzy Bones when he entered the league. He had swagger and soul, and there was a void in Denver’s backcourt that it seemed as though he could eventually fill – remember what I said earlier? Voids can be a trap! Jamal Murray was injured, and there was nobody talented enough to block his minutes, if he managed to convince Coach Malone that he deserved them. However, somehow, somewhere along the way, Hyland decided he didn’t want to live the easy life catching magical passes from the unicorn of all unicorns, Nikola Jokic; instead, he stirred enough controversy in the Nuggets’ locker room that Calvin Booth chose to trade him to the Clippers for a pair of Taylor Swift tickets. Bummer…

Elfrid Payton

I cannot believe anyone, at any point, had this dude on their sleepers list. The only thing worth mentioning about him was his hairdo. Seems like a sweet guy, though.

Jalen Smith

This one was understandable, to some degree. Phoenix idiotically passed up on Tyrese Haliburton for Smith, but then they never even really gave him a shot. In the few instances where he got some run, he produced. Then they didn’t guarantee his rookie contract and he ended up with the Pacers. As soon as he got there, he looked like a potential diamond in the rough, putting up very, very promising stats. The Pacers gave him a guaranteed contract and a guaranteed spot in the starting lineup. However, it turns out he was just an elite “silly season hero,” and within weeks, Rick Carlisle more or less pulled him out of the rotation, and he was watching Aaron Nesmith pretend to be a power forward through his Horace Grant-style Rec Specs.

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