Mark Bridges

Wow Mikal Bridges is the real deal! You see that scoring? 26.1 points per game! Bridges is a P-R-O-B-L-E-M! Suns had Kevin Durant at home and traded him away!

Fall Ingdown

Okay chilllll. Yeah, Bridges scored well on the Nets. But it was just 27 games – that is such a small sample! And the Nets had zero, zilch, nada to play for towards the end of the season. It was all just silly season numbers for him!

Mark Bridges

Let’s dispel the myth the Nets had nothing to play for. Yes, they traded away their stars and didn’t have their first round pick to tank for in the draft. But that doesn’t mean the players aren’t trying to win nor that the games were “silly”. The Nets still played competitive ball up and into the playoffs.

I guess it’s fair on the sample size though; it’s still not that large. Still, even YOU would have to admit naysayers were saying “it’s just three games…it’s just five games…it’s just 10 games” and suddenly we’re at 27 games and Bridges was keeping pace. The sample is approaching a point where it’s more believable than not.

Fall Ingdown

Okay okay, the Nets weren’t in true silly season. But still – are we ignoring that Bridges two-point percentage from 2019-2022 compared to last season was down from 63.2% to 50.2% according to CleaningTheGlass? That doesn’t give any reason for concern?

Mark Bridges

Honestly it does a little bit. But I feel like you’re being purposely selective here – with the Nets his two-point percentage did increase back up to 53.0% AND on a harder shot diet. He was assisted on 71% of all made shots on the Suns versus 55% on the Nets – that 55% rate was good for 83rd percentile of all wings! Not to mention what we care about here: is his fantasy production. Even factoring in his efficiency dip, Bridges was 37th on a per-game basis on the Suns, and jumped up to 25th on the Nets per Basketball Monster.

Fall Ingdown

Fair to say Bridges did somehow shoot better on a harder shot diet. But just stay with me here a minute and let’s agree to say there is some negative shooting percentage regression from Bridges’ numbers on the Nets. You want to look at what drove that fantasy ranking improvement? A chunk of it was free throw percentage jumping from roughly 84% in previous seasons all the way to nearly 90%!

Mark Bridges

Maybe there was some random free throw percentage luck there. But you know what else drives free throw percentages for us fantasy managers? Free throw volume. His free throw volume increased from roughly 2.0 on the Suns to 6.6 on the Nets. And before you say that just came from more usage and more shots…the percentage of shots he was fouled on increased from 9.8% on the Suns to 13.8% on the Nets, placing him at the 85th percentile in the league as shown on CleaningTheGlass! Foul drawing is a skill, and that was a clear improvement from Bridges. He was getting into pretty elite territory here!

Fall Ingdown

Yeah yeah okay but c’mon the Nets are going to be looking to retool. And when that happens there’s no way Mikal Bridges will continue to have this usage. Jumping from 13.7% usage rate on the Suns in the 2021-22 season to 18.8% on the Suns in the 2022-23 season and then a towering 28.8% on the Nets? I can pull fancy numbers too! That’s crazy high for a player of Bridges’ stature!

Mark Bridges

It is a high usage number! But perhaps you’re the one adjusting too slow to Bridges’ ascent. On the Nets, Bridges provided a 1.22 points per shot attempt via CleaningTheGlass – similar to other high usage stars such as Zach LaVine, Devin Booker and better than De’Aaron Fox. And he achieved this on a fairly minuscule turnover rate of 8.2%, better than all the players just mentioned. Maybe the word we should be using for Bridges is superstar???

Fall Ingdown

Alright, that’s a pretty good scoring sample. But the turnover percentage is a little misleading. Using your fancy schmancy stats also shows Bridges’ assist-to-usage ratio was 0.49, well below other lead creators like the ones you named above. Sure, Bridges may have unlocked a new aspect of his scoring, but he will be hampered by his limited creation for others. We saw that in the playoffs already against the Sixers. As the only real threat on his team, the Nets offense cratered.

Mark Bridges

I have some doubts on Bridges’ playmaking as well. But he is still young enough that we could see some improvement there. Even if that aspect of his game doesn’t come around, the scoring improvement seems fairly real and a key part of his game. Over the whole year on both teams Bridges still achieved a per-game value of 32nd on the year. That seems like a floor based on his sample with Nets – I think we can agree on that?

Fall Ingdown

Sigh…I think you convinced me on that one. Now let me try again to convince you that Harden deserved MVP over Westbrook in the 2016-17 season…

Mark Bridges

Not this again!

The idea behind this article was inspired from all the discussion and debates I had with friends on Mikal Bridges’ run on the Nets and how much we could trust it going forward. As said earlier, it started as just a five game sample and then a ten game sample…and then the rest of the season. Then it truly became a question of what did the Suns really give up when acquiring Kevin Durant.

As I was writing this article, I thought I would land in-between our two experts (definitely not my internal dialogue at all). But combing through the numbers and the eye-test, it quickly became clear there is much in favor of Bridges raising his skill level. Many of his self-scoring numbers compare extremely favorably to other great scorers of the game today. While it is fair to note his overall efficiency was down from his previous seasons on the Suns, they are still quite respectable with the Nets, especially when factoring in the self-creation aspect. It is rare to see a player’s efficiency stay stable, let alone rise, when volume of shot increases. But it’s not unheard of and is essentially what happened with Mikal Bridges.

Two major stats stuck out for me: the foul drawing improvement and the low turnover rate. The easiest way to score in the game is at the free throw line. A majority of the high-scoring stars of today get to the line frequently. Consistency in getting to the line allows these athletes to maintain a safe floor in point totals, something we saw Bridges excel at when given the reins in Brooklyn. And as fantasy managers, we should love his free throw attempt rise to become a significant contributor in the category of FT%. Additionally, a low turnover rate is a somewhat under-discussed component of helping your team win. Less turnovers leads to less transition opportunities for your opponents and less easy baskets paired with more halfcourt defensive possessions. Limiting your turnovers is quite good, and something that Bridges showed the ability to do.

With all those positives, there are some areas of concern for me. One is that Bridges’ playmaking and assists total were very pedestrian. This limits how much of a focal point he can be on offense. Bridges is still young enough that he could expand this aspect of his game, especially given the fact this is the first time he has been in this high usage of a role. Even if Bridges’ assist totals don’t shoot up, we could still be looking at a Jaylen Brown-like scoring role along with all the other fantasy goodies that Bridges brings to the table. The second worry is if Bridges will retain this role in the future, especially given his mediocre playoff performance against the Sixers. I hope I’ve laid out my conclusion well-enough, but I’ll reiterate it here again – Bridges on the Nets was a high-level scorer, similar to the likes of other established high-level scorers in the league. While I wasn’t the most encouraged with Bridges in the playoffs, it was still an acceptable display in light of the lack of other scoring options on the team and his first time in this expanded scoring role. And remember – fantasy cares more about the regular season than the playoffs. Even if Bridges cannot be a primary scoring option in the playoffs, I still see abundant reasons to believe in him for the regular season.

To answer the initial question, how should dynasty managers view Mikal Bridges? I am buying his scoring output as real and would treat it as such going forward with perhaps some dips in efficiency. I don’t really see his assist totals jumping up that much, but it wouldn’t be something I would rule out either. With the increase in offensive usage, we probably will see a minor decline in steals, but nothing too major. I can easily see Bridges maintaining a 23-4.5-3.5 statline on 46% from the field, 85% from the line on good volume, 2.5 triples, one steal, and 0.5 blocks per game. For reference, his Nets line was 26-4.5-3 on 47.5% from the field, 89.4% from the line, 2.5 triples, one steal, and 0.6 blocks per game via Basketball Reference. My proposed line feels like a conservative floor and would lead to a top-40 finish; any other improvements and suddenly you’re looking at a top-25 ceiling. Treat Mikal Bridges as such going forward!