Mark Bridges

Wow Mikal Bridges is the real deal! You see that scoring? 26.1 points per game! Bridges is a P-R-O-B-L-E-M! Suns had Kevin Durant at home and traded him away!

Fall Ingdown

Okay chilllll. Yeah, Bridges scored well on the Nets. But it was just 27 games – that is such a small sample! And the Nets had zero, zilch, nada to play for towards the end of the season. It was all just silly season numbers for him!

Mark Bridges

Let’s dispel the myth the Nets had nothing to play for. Yes, they traded away their stars and didn’t have their first round pick to tank for in the draft. But that doesn’t mean the players aren’t trying to win nor that the games were “silly”. The Nets still played competitive ball up and into the playoffs.

I guess it’s fair on the sample size though; it’s still not that large. Still, even YOU would have to admit naysayers were saying “it’s just three games…it’s just five games…it’s just 10 games” and suddenly we’re at 27 games and Bridges was keeping pace. The sample is approaching a point where it’s more believable than not.

Fall Ingdown

Okay okay, the Nets weren’t in true silly season. But still – are we ignoring that Bridges two-point percentage from 2019-2022 compared to last season was down from 63.2% to 50.2% according to CleaningTheGlass? That doesn’t give any reason for concern?

Mark Bridges

Honestly it does a little bit. But I feel like you’re being purposely selective here – with the Nets his two-point percentage did increase back up to 53.0% AND on a harder shot diet. He was assisted on 71% of all made shots on the Suns versus 55% on the Nets – that 55% rate was good for 83rd percentile of all wings! Not to mention what we care about here: is his fantasy production. Even factoring in his efficiency dip, Bridges was 37th on a per-game basis on the Suns, and jumped up to 25th on the Nets per Basketball Monster.

Fall Ingdown

Fair to say Bridges did somehow shoot better on a harder shot diet. But just stay with me here a minute and let’s agree to say there is some negative shooting percentage regression from Bridges’ numbers on the Nets. You want to look at what drove that fantasy ranking improvement? A chunk of it was free throw percentage jumping from roughly 84% in previous seasons all the way to nearly 90%!

Mark Bridges

Maybe there was some random free throw percentage luck there. But you know what else drives free throw percentages for us fantasy managers? Free throw volume. His free throw volume increased from roughly 2.0 on the Suns to 6.6 on the Nets. And before you say that just came from more usage and more shots…the percentage of shots he was fouled on increased from 9.8% on the Suns to 13.8% on the Nets, placing him at the 85th percentile in the league as shown on CleaningTheGlass! Foul drawing is a skill, and that was a clear improvement from Bridges. He was getting into pretty elite territory here!

Fall Ingdown

Yeah yeah okay but c’mon the Nets are going to be looking to retool. And when that happens there’s no way Mikal Bridges will continue to have this usage. Jumping from 13.7% usage rate on the Suns in the 2021-22 season to 18.8% on the Suns in the 2022-23 season and then a towering 28.8% on the Nets? I can pull fancy numbers too! That’s crazy high for a player of Bridges’ stature!

Mark Bridges

It is a high usage number! But perhaps you’re the one adjusting too slow to Bridges’ ascent. On the Nets, Bridges provided a 1.22 points per shot attempt via CleaningTheGlass – similar to other high usage stars such as Zach LaVine, Devin Booker and better than De’Aaron Fox. And he achieved this on a fairly minuscule turnover rate of 8.2%, better than all the players just mentioned. Maybe the word we should be using for Bridges is superstar???

Fall Ingdown

Alright, that’s a pretty good scoring sample. But the turnover percentage is a little misleading. Using your fancy schmancy stats also shows Bridges’ assist-to-usage ratio was 0.49, well below other lead creators like the ones you named above. Sure, Bridges may have unlocked a new aspect of his scoring, but he will be hampered by his limited creation for others. We saw that in the playoffs already against the Sixers. As the only real threat on his team, the Nets offense cratered.

Mark Bridges

I have some doubts on Bridges’ playmaking as well. But he is still young enough that we could see some improvement there. Even if that aspect of his game doesn’t come around, the scoring improvement seems fairly real and a key part of his game. Over the whole year on both teams Bridges still achieved a per-game value of 32nd on the year. That seems like a floor based on his sample with Nets – I think we can agree on that?

Fall Ingdown

Sigh…I think you convinced me on that one. Now let me try again to convince you that Harden deserved MVP over Westbrook in the 2016-17 season…

Mark Bridges

Not this again!

The idea behind this article was inspired from all the discussion and debates I had with friends on Mikal Bridges’ run on the Nets and how much we could trust it going forward. As said earlier, it started as just a five game sample and then a ten game sample…and then the rest of the season. Then it truly became a question of what did the Suns really give up when acquiring Kevin Durant.

As I was writing this article, I thought I would land in-between our two experts (definitely not my internal dialogue at all). But combing through the numbers and the eye-test, it quickly became clear there is much in favor of Bridges raising his skill level. Many of his self-scoring numbers compare extremely favorably to other great scorers of the game today. While it is fair to note his overall efficiency was down from his previous seasons on the Suns, they are still quite respectable with the Nets, especially when factoring in the self-creation aspect. It is rare to see a player’s efficiency stay stable, let alone rise, when volume of shot increases. But it’s not unheard of and is essentially what happened with Mikal Bridges.

Two major stats stuck out for me: the foul drawing improvement and the low turnover rate. The easiest way to score in the game is at the free throw line. A majority of the high-scoring stars of today get to the line frequently. Consistency in getting to the line allows these athletes to maintain a safe floor in point totals, something we saw Bridges excel at when given the reins in Brooklyn. And as fantasy managers, we should love his free throw attempt rise to become a significant contributor in the category of FT%. Additionally, a low turnover rate is a somewhat under-discussed component of helping your team win. Less turnovers leads to less transition opportunities for your opponents and less easy baskets paired with more halfcourt defensive possessions. Limiting your turnovers is quite good, and something that Bridges showed the ability to do.

With all those positives, there are some areas of concern for me. One is that Bridges’ playmaking and assists total were very pedestrian. This limits how much of a focal point he can be on offense. Bridges is still young enough that he could expand this aspect of his game, especially given the fact this is the first time he has been in this high usage of a role. Even if Bridges’ assist totals don’t shoot up, we could still be looking at a Jaylen Brown-like scoring role along with all the other fantasy goodies that Bridges brings to the table. The second worry is if Bridges will retain this role in the future, especially given his mediocre playoff performance against the Sixers. I hope I’ve laid out my conclusion well-enough, but I’ll reiterate it here again – Bridges on the Nets was a high-level scorer, similar to the likes of other established high-level scorers in the league. While I wasn’t the most encouraged with Bridges in the playoffs, it was still an acceptable display in light of the lack of other scoring options on the team and his first time in this expanded scoring role. And remember – fantasy cares more about the regular season than the playoffs. Even if Bridges cannot be a primary scoring option in the playoffs, I still see abundant reasons to believe in him for the regular season.

To answer the initial question, how should dynasty managers view Mikal Bridges? I am buying his scoring output as real and would treat it as such going forward with perhaps some dips in efficiency. I don’t really see his assist totals jumping up that much, but it wouldn’t be something I would rule out either. With the increase in offensive usage, we probably will see a minor decline in steals, but nothing too major. I can easily see Bridges maintaining a 23-4.5-3.5 statline on 46% from the field, 85% from the line on good volume, 2.5 triples, one steal, and 0.5 blocks per game. For reference, his Nets line was 26-4.5-3 on 47.5% from the field, 89.4% from the line, 2.5 triples, one steal, and 0.6 blocks per game via Basketball Reference. My proposed line feels like a conservative floor and would lead to a top-40 finish; any other improvements and suddenly you’re looking at a top-25 ceiling. Treat Mikal Bridges as such going forward!

Minimum Team Salary

We’ll start with a simple one – if on the first day of the regular season a team’s salary is below the minimum team salary (90% of salary cap), then the team will not receive tax distribution payments. The team will also pay the difference between the two to the NBA which will then distribute that amount to all players in the NBA. Previously, this difference was just paid to players on the specific team.

This change should incentivize teams to hit the minimum team salary at the beginning of the regular season. Teams can achieve this in numerous ways – handing out bloated one-year contracts in free agency; giving out more guarantees to roster camp invites; agreeing to renegotiate-and-extensions with their own players; acquiring salary dumps of other team’s players before the season starts instead of at the trade deadline. Teams like the Rockets, Pistons, Spurs, Thunder, Jazz, and Pacers all project to be well below the Minimum Team Salary – expect these teams to not be afraid of spending big in free agency and potentially be the dumping ground for unwanted contracts. Players like Kevin Porter Jr., Killian Hayes, Tre Jones and Talen Horton-Tucker could see their fantasy values fluctuate accordingly depending on how these teams behave in the off-season.

Mid-Level Exception Changes Galore!

Diving into something more detail-heavy, mid-level exceptions across the board have been modified. Firstly, the room mid-level exception (the exception given to teams who utilize cap space) is increasing from $5.4M to roughly $7.6M and can now be up to three years rather than two. Next, the non-taxpayer mid-level exception (MLE) is increasing to roughly $12.2M from $10.5M. Lastly, there are two sets of changes to the taxpayer mid-level exception (TMLE): It is now limited to 2-years at $5M per year max, and teams above the second tax apron level (to be discussed later) will not have access to the TMLE at all.

Quick and dirty summary – tax paying teams have less spending power via exceptions than before, and cap space and non-tax paying teams have more spending power. Players wishing to be on higher spending teams (typically contending teams) will have to take a larger salary cut than previous, which may or may change their decision on who to sign with it. Additionally, the room exception is now a more lucrative offer than the TMLE, which was not the case previously. This allows the room exception to be a competitive alternative to the TMLE, further muddying the decision waters for players.

With the above changes, we may see a greater distribution of talent across the seventh to ninth spots in bench rotations across the leagues. We may see more veterans opt to take a larger guaranteed contract over chasing that ring. Not only would this lead to varying playtime opportunities for said veterans, it could also lead to rookies and young under-performing players  getting less run in the beginning of the season. Pay close note to rumors and rumblings about how teams plan to use these modified exceptions. One team that already seems to be aligning itself to utilize the greater room exception is the Sacramento Kings. With their salary dump of Richaun Holmes’ $12M contract, the Kings could open up nearly $30M in cap space this offseason and still have the capability of using the new and improved room exception. Could they be trying to snipe Draymond Green or Jerami Grant? Side note – these moves would mean the Kings could not bring back Harrison Barnes who could be a nice addition to a different NBA locker room.

New Second Tax Apron and Hardened First Tax Apron

As previously mentioned, the new second tax apron should bring about massive ramifications for the top-spending teams in the league. The bulk of the new restrictions involved with the second tax apron will not come into effect until the 2024-2025 NBA season, so we won’t go into detail on them here. Just know they are rather punitive and will be a deterrence to teams looking to spend above the second tax apron line. The one limitation going into effect for this upcoming year is second apron teams (set at $17.5M above the luxury tax line) will not have access to any type of mid-level exception.

Teams projected to be at this level include the Clippers, Warriors, Bucks, Heat, Suns, and potentially other teams. These teams will have to rely on their own Bird Rights free agents, minimum signings, and draft picks to round out their rosters. Without the TMLE, there is the potential for young prospects and players to earn rotation spots that otherwise vets would have taken. Deep league managers rejoice – perhaps MarJon Beauchamp, Jason Preston, Jalen Johnson, or Nikola Jović could provide steady lower-tier value. These are just some of the names I’m putting on my watch list; look for teams approaching the second apron line to opt for their current crop of cheaper options instead of looking outside the organization for rotation help. We just saw the Warriors make a grand move to alleviate future second apron concerns, dealing Jordan Poole and his 4-year/$128M along with a future protected first to the Wizards for Chris Paul and his potentially expiring $30.8M contract (his $30M in 2024-25 is non-guaranteed). Then there’s John Collins with his 3-year/$78.5M contract that was essentially dumped into the Utah Jazz’s cap space to keep the Hawks out of the tax. This could just be the tip of the iceberg – as discussed earlier, plenty of teams will be trying to reach that minimum salary floor, and there is no shortage of teams that could be looking to dump bloated contracts.

First apron teams (set at approximately $7M above the tax line) also have a minor reason to think about whether to enter this limit or not. Teams into the first apron cannot sign a buyout player if their previous salary was at the MLE level or higher. Buyout guys tend to be overrated, but there is still usually one or two who can play a part down the stretch for fantasy rosters. One of the clearest examples that would not be allowed going forward is the Clippers signing of Russell Westbrook after his trade and subsequent cut from the Jazz. The Clippers did give Westbrook more opportunity to “Let Russ be Russ”, and he was a useful and more efficient player than on the Lakers. However, I still don’t expect this buyout clause addition to have much impact on us dynasty managers.

Extension Allowances

We’ll end by discussing two changes to extension rules. The first is with veteran salary extensions. Veterans can now sign up to 140% of the previous salary, up from 120%. This could have impacted players like Myles Turner during the previous season. Turner did end up extending but under the renegotiate-and-extend rules, a type of extension rarely seen in the NBA. With this change, I expect even less mid-tier free agents available in upcoming seasons. Players like Kyle Kuzma this past year may have signed an extension with the Wizards; perhaps someone like Markelle Fultz will now be willing to sign an extension with the Magic this upcoming year. Expect some more immediate continuity on rosters with players securing the guaranteed extension and still having the option of seeking a trade later if they desire. Otherwise, this is probably not a huge impact for us dynasty managers.

The second extension change is with rookie extensions. Before, rookie extensions that were up to five years could only be for their max salary. With the new CBA, five-year rookie extensions are possible with any salary level. This change allows teams more options when negotiating rookies extensions similar to the above extension change. I don’t think this change will affect too much for fantasy – we may see similar guarantee numbers as a four-year max but now over five years instead to spread out the cap hit.

Summary

Whew, that was a lot of nitty-gritty cap lingo there! The above list was not necessarily a fully-encompassing one, but the major ones we should be aware of. I strongly believe at least a basic understanding of what tools and tricks NBA teams have in building their rosters can be beneficial to how we build our own dynasty rosters. Knowing what resources teams have at their disposal and what player moves can reasonably happen is key to our evaluation of players and their value moving forward. Getting a jump on acquiring players in previous years like Bruce Brown in Denver or Donte DiVincenzo with the Warriors would have paid dividends this past season. When free agency starts, be on the lookout for how teams navigate these new CBA rules, and identify and target those players you believe will be looking at new opportunities for their fantasy value to rise! Any questions, comments, or further discussion wanted? Hit me up on Twitter @MACAttack145 or comment below!