Offseason Review – SportsEthos https://sportsethos.com Worldwide Sports Coverage • Fantasy • DFS • Gaming Mon, 09 Oct 2023 15:37:10 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.3.1 https://sportsethos.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/cropped-android-chrome-512x512-1-32x32.png Offseason Review – SportsEthos https://sportsethos.com 32 32 2023-24 NBA Draft Guide: Reviewing Last Year’s Busts https://sportsethos.com/articles/fantasy-pass/2023-24-nba-draft-guide-reviewing-last-years-busts/ https://sportsethos.com/articles/fantasy-pass/2023-24-nba-draft-guide-reviewing-last-years-busts/#respond Sat, 07 Oct 2023 20:44:03 +0000 https://sportsethos.com/?p=407597 Part of being a reasonable analyst is looking back on your past work and sorting out what worked and what didn’t. We’ve got to engender some accountability here, but more than that, we’re looking for why past mistakes were made. What about our old opinions and research blew up in our faces? Or better yet, what was dead-on correct?

Given how hard it is for a player picked in most 12-team leagues to totally bottom out, most busts will have held value somewhere. We were not, and are rarely going to, try and call shots on insane degradation of play. Instead, we’re looking at these players to see whether they met their ADPs, or whether the difference between ADP and final value was still worth the time.

With that in mind, let’s take a look back at last season’s predicted Busts to see where the hits and misses were.

Clint Capela

Results: Even fighting against the surge of Onyeka Okongwu, Capela managed to outdo his ADP handily with an early-middle round season.

Verdict: Clint Cap-L-a

Reasons: Full marks to Capela. Okongwu had all the momentum in the offseason but the veteran held strong, though his fantasy resurgence was largely due to a spike in his field goal percentage (and free throws, though they were still bad) that offset marginal dips in the counting stats. With players like this, it’s important to remember that they have a high perch to fall from. Capela doesn’t do a ton across the box, but his areas of specialty are remarkably strong, so any little dips will still end up delivering a reasonable season as long as he doesn’t crater. He also has a stat set that you can project fairly easily; you know what to expect even as he declines. Capela very much did not crater, and it also helped that the Hawks somehow made it through another season of major trade rumors without actually acting on any of them.

Bogdan Bogdanovic

Results: Bogdanovic ended up right around his ADP, outrunning the specter of Atlanta’s new backcourt as well as a late start to the season.

Verdict: Tip your cap, L

Reasons: It was all working against Bogdanovic this past season, and he was already a player who got some favorable breaks in his past time with Atlanta. Him entering the season injured after undergoing knee surgery was enough of a red flag to push Bogdanovic down draft boards, but he was able to hit the ground running upon his return after a couple of bumps in the road shooting-wise. The addition of Dejounte Murray didn’t detract a ton from Bogdanovic’s playmaking output and he was able to get away with only slight downticks in most categories. This shouldn’t have worked at all, but it did, so fair play to Bogdanovic for holding onto 12-team appeal.

Jaden Ivey

Results: Ivey finished outside the top-150 and was a disaster in 9-cat.

Verdict: Easy W

Reasons: Ivey did a ton of good things in his rookie season, but producing fantasy value wasn’t one of them. In his defense, it’s not like he forced anyone to draft him. Players like this just need time to get a grip on the NBA game and there are major hurdles to fantasy appeal from the jump. Efficiency and turnovers were already looking like problem areas and the early exit of Cade Cunningham, while opening up a pathway for a huge rule, only exacerbated the issues. Sometimes unchecked minutes in a starring role are not good for fantasy value, and that’s what we saw here. Hopefully Ivey is the next in a long line of guards who hit the gas pedal in their sophomore efforts.

Julius Randle

Results: Randle was unable to meet his ADP, but not by enough for managers to be truly disappointed in the returns.

Verdict: Julius Rand-L

Reasons: It was not at all fun to watch Randle rack up his numbers, using iso possessions by the handful, but he got the numbers in the end. The real saving grace for him was that the addition of Jalen Brunson eased a lot of the offensive burden and put Randle in position to make his shots at a better clip. A big rise in efficiency led to an accompanying spike in points and Randle even set a new career-high in 3-pointers made, even though that shouldn’t necessarily be a goal for him. There was one big swing factor in Randle’s campaign, and he happened to nail it with big help from a reconstructed roster.

Christian Wood

Results: Wood hit his free throws.

Verdict: Push?

Reasons: Wood didn’t meet his ADP, but he still managed a top-100 season. Like we mentioned with Ivey above, this is another player who may be better suited to a streamlined role with limited usage, as his worst instincts rise to the top quickly when he’s treated as a go-to guy. Wood saw the expected downturn in playing time as a member of the Mavs but kept his stats at a reasonable level — the difference-maker for him was that he shot .772 at the charity stripe after going .623 and .631 in the previous two seasons. Had Wood continued to provide punt-worthy marks at the charity stripe this would’ve been an easy bust, but he came out of nowhere to hit those easy shots and stay afloat in the rankings.

Collin Sexton

Results: Sexton was not plugged in as the primary backcourt option for a surprisingly competitive Jazz team, and didn’t generate the volume needed to shine.

Verdict: Clear W

Reasons: Our hesitation with Sexton stemmed from the fact that he was coming off a major season-ending knee surgery, set to debut for a new team with a deep backcourt. The Jazz had every reason to ease him into action given their long-term goals, and then when they actually started winning games it became more difficult to change things up to let Sexton cook. The circumstances surrounding his high ADP made sense — young, talented player about to take on a big role for a rebuilding team — but that was already too aggressive to begin with considering his previous best season was a top-75/105 finish. Sexton was being drafted to duplicate those results, even off injury, in a new environment that can be hard to adjust to for score-first guards. A couple hamstring injuries basically wiped the second half of his season off the board, so managers who held out hope for a big finish weren’t even rewarded. Sexton finished as a top-200/240 guy despite being drafted in the middle rounds of many leagues.

RJ Barrett

Results: Barrett shot better from the field but made no real strides in his game.

Verdict: Predictable W

Reasons: Is there a proper setup that allows Barrett to be a major contributor of a successful fantasy team? Absolutely. Was that the case for most managers who drafted Barrett? Absolutely not. Like Randle above, Barrett benefited from Brunson pulling the strings on offense, but he felt a bit more of the squeeze in terms of volume. With no other real standout category besides points, that thin margin of error vanished, with Barrett finishing well outside the top-200. He was still an asset in points leagues and you could punt to his strengths, but Barrett needed some miraculous improvement across the board to have a puncher’s chance at meeting his ADP inside the top-100.

Russell Westbrook

Results: Westbrook managed a top-115 season in 8-cat but that was still about 40 spots back of his ADP, and he never stood a chance in 9-cat.

Verdict: Free Space

Reasons: The ADP that Westbrook’s name value delivers means he’s always going to be overdrafted from a pure value perspective. Perhaps the league’s most notable team jettisoning him from the roster dials this back a bit, but it was another easy call. You can construct a roster that allows Westbrook to be a legitimate help in fantasy leagues, but with him going as early as he did in drafts, it’s unlikely that things played out the way they needed to for most managers.

In Summary

Seems like a decent effort, with Christian Wood’s random free throw spike the only thing keeping us from some decisive victory. The market continued to push obviously flawed fantasy players up the draft board, and although not every pick you make is going to be a winner, it is always good to avoid a land mine — and not in the unpredictable form of someone getting injured. Remember, every player on the board does have the capacity to be a contributor, but you have to build out the rest of the roster in a way that works toward that goal. If not, you’re sitting with a player that’s detracting from whatever else you’ve built. In dodging potential busts, you’re simply getting out of your own way by making educated guesses.

Players who were outside the top-200 in 9-cat (per game) with ADPs around 125 or higher? Jalen Green, Westbrook, Sexton, Barrett, Paolo Banchero, Dillon Brooks, James Wiseman and John Wall. Overall, it would seem that the fantasy community is getting better at avoiding those huge, ‘blow up in your face’ busts so long as you can avoid the players who suffer major injuries. That makes our job harder and harder every year, but there’s fun in the challenge of it all.

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2023-24 NBA Draft Guide: Reviewing Last Year’s Sleepers https://sportsethos.com/articles/fantasy-pass/2023-24-nba-draft-guide-reviewing-last-years-sleepers/ https://sportsethos.com/articles/fantasy-pass/2023-24-nba-draft-guide-reviewing-last-years-sleepers/#respond Sat, 07 Oct 2023 20:42:41 +0000 https://sportsethos.com/?p=407473 Transparency and honesty are key attributes in many arenas —  especially fantasy analysis. It’s always nice to win one, but even when you’re off the mark it’s good to go back and look at the totality of things; what went right, what went wrong and why. With that in mind we like to take some time in each Draft Guide to look back at last year’s hits and misses, with particular attention paid to the marquee Sleepers category. It’s everyone’s favorite topic, after all.

There’s something beautiful about the simplicity; hitting on a sleeper communicates the basic idea that you knew your stuff better than your opponents. All of the players we picked as sleepers last year were available for every single one of your leaguemates, and if you snatched one (or more) of them up then you were just rolling in profits. Not everyone had the chance to pick Nikola Jokic, but everyone had multiple chances to select every player on this list. They weren’t all wins but we did get a couple nice values out of our callouts.

Standard Leagues

Onyeka Okongwu, C, Atlanta Hawks

Results: A top-100/75 (8/9-cat) season, with top-60 finishes in terms of total value, all without Okongwu truly hitting his ceiling.

Verdict: Huge W

Reason: Okongwu was a little bit of a stretch as a sleeper in that he was routinely being drafted as a late-round dart, but the obvious potential made him too appealing to ignore for selection here. Anyone who nabbed Okongwu ahead of his ADP was given a game-changer, though he did require a little patience. The first couple months of the season saw Okongwu drawing the short end of a timeshare with Clint Capela, posting value that had him near the cut line in 12-team leagues in about 20 mpg. He found his footing and was aided by some absences from Capela, getting a run of 10 Capela-less games starting in January that helped him take a big jump up the standings. From there it was clear that he needed to play more, and while he never got to author a true breakout it was enough to deliver a big season for fantasy GMs. Okongwu has a stat set that you can set your watch to, and even on his quieter nights he was getting good minutes and producing rebounds and blocks on a strong field goal percentage. Add it all up and you have a middle-round guy that was being drafted at flier prices.

Jalen Smith/Isaiah Jackson, F/C, Indiana Pacers

Results: Smith and Jackson, the heir apparents in the Indiana frontcourt, ended up outside the top-200 with their long-term futures suddenly up for debate.

Verdict: Rick Carlis-L

Reason: The Pacers just didn’t do what we thought they would. They were supposed to keep tanking and let the kids run wild, especially after re-signing Smith in free agency to start at power forward. Instead, the Pacers ended up being pretty competent, and the long-rumored trade of Myles Turner never came to pass — he actually signed an extension with Indiana after it looked like he’d be headed elsewhere for the past three seasons. With Smith getting off to a slow start and eventually losing his spot to Aaron Nesmith, plus the Pacers’ sudden abundance of rotation-caliber guards and forwards, both Smith and Jackson ended up at the edge of the rotation, and at times out of it entirely. At times it felt like Rick Carlisle was hunting for reasons to play anyone else, but at the end of the day Smith and Jackson couldn’t maintain the momentum they established at the end of 2021-22 and got lost in the shuffle.

Isaiah Hartenstein, C, New York Knicks

Results: Hartenstein finished just below full-time roster status in 12-team leagues despite cementing himself as a quality NBA player.

Verdict: Mild L

Reason: Tom Thibodeau’s rotation continued to be a tough nut to crack, and although Hartenstein quickly established himself as an every-night player who deserved a decent role, he could never prove a real threat to Mitchell Robinson. Credit Robinson for becoming an improved NBA player as well. It looked like Hartenstein was ready for rocket fuel after posting 16-8-4 in 40 minutes on opening night, but he settled into a modest career-high of 19.8 mpg. The real issues? Hartenstein’s field goal percentage and blocks dipped, carving off a few rounds of value. He remained a solid option to round out deep-league rosters, and there’s also the fact that the Knicks generally looked pretty good with him on the floor, but for our purposes Hartenstein fell short of a passing grade.

Caleb Martin, F, Miami Heat

Results: Martin finished right around his ADP as his stats remained fairly level despite an increase in playing time.

Verdict: Push — but imagine if the playoffs counted?

Reason: Martin did get the bigger role we projected for him, but a dip in efficiency plus a decline in his per-minute output of defensive stats kept him locked into late-round value. There were spurts of something more throughout the season but Martin was ultimately unable to grab hold of must-start status in fantasy. The playoffs served as his real coming out party, with Martin catching fire from the 3-point arc and logging huge minutes as one of Miami’s most trusted hands at forward. Unfortunately for us, those stats won’t count towards his fantasy value, meaning fantasy GMs basically got what they paid for considering his ADP.

Tari Eason, F, Houston Rockets

Results: The market got very excited about Eason, understandably so, but he wound up floating just above the cut line for most of the year.

Verdict: Push

Reason: It was trouble from the jump when we found out that Bruno Fernando would start over Alperen Sengun on opening night, as it pointed to the notion that the Rockets wouldn’t necessarily make an effort to showcase their top young talent. It wasn’t all that bad, as Eason eventually found his way into regular minutes, and managers who drafted him as the cherry on top of a well-rounded roster were probably happy with the returns. Eason only had 15 games without a steal or block this season and looked every bit the stat magnet that he proved to be in college, with his role increasing from month to month as the Rockets sank in the standings. He wasn’t quite the difference-maker everyone was hoping to snag late in drafts, but 1.2 steals and 0.6 blocks per game is hard to wave away as a disappointment. Like the rest of the Rockets, we’ll be watching to see how Eason reacts to a coaching staff that will try and run a tight ship — players who rack up big defensive numbers while constantly freelancing could be looking at a big adjustment period.

Deep Leagues

Jaylen Nowell, G, Minnesota Timberwolves

Results: Nowell dropped outside the top-250 and the Wolves gave up on him around midseason.

Verdict: Jaylen Nowe-L

Reason: Things got off to a roaring start as Nowell averaged 16.2 points and 1.8 triples on .471 shooting through his first five games, but it was all downhill from that point on. Even with the long-term absence of Karl-Anthony Towns, the Wolves piled minutes onto other bench options and Nowell didn’t help his own case with some wayward 3-point shooting. Falling from .394 to .298 from the arc was too much to overcome, especially when you’re supposed to be a microwave scorer. When the shots stopped falling, Nowell’s minutes started to dip, and that was all she wrote.

Zach Collins, F/C, San Antonio Spurs

Results: Collins finished the season as a late-round value, but those who actually had him rostered made out like bandits down the stretch.

Verdict: Clean W

Reason: In our Sleepers article, we wrote: “It’s a good developmental environment for him and the potential for a Jakob Poeltl trade at some point means that we could see Collins playing huge minutes by the end of the year. Health will always be a concern, but the variety of Collins’ production gets him close to the top-200 even in a strict backup role. Roll the dice at the end of 16-team drafts and don’t be surprised if he ends up going from useful presence to must-start guy over the course of the campaign.”

That’s exactly what happened, and the only thing slowing Collins down from an even bigger finish was the Spurs messing around with his own workload and yo-yoing him out of the lineup in their quest to maximize lottery odds. From the deadline onwards, Collins was a top-40 player in per-game value, with averages of 16.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.1 steals, 1.1 blocks and 1.6 3-pointers per game on .494 shooting.

Dean Wade, F, Cleveland Cavaliers

Results: Wade battled injuries and the Cavs, suddenly in win-now mode, weren’t willing to wait for him to get back up to speed.

Verdict: Hot start but an L

Reason: Wade had us feeling optimistic after a good start to the year that saw him post top-170/200 value through the end of November, but injuries started stacking up and left him playing catch-up for the rest of the campaign. He played 24.9 mpg in that early window, enough for him to deliver usable numbers in rebounds, steals, blocks and triples on a solid mark from the field. Wade only played in 28 games from December 1 onward, however, so we never got a real look at how he would’ve held up over a full season. As the Cavs climbed up the standings their rotation tightened, and although Wade is the type of guy that would’ve really lengthened their bench, Cleveland was unable to give him the time necessary to shake off all that rust.

Gabe Vincent, G, Miami Heat

Results: Vincent finished as a top-250 value and saw very little movement in his stat line despite a more secure role.

Verdict: Swing and a miss

Reason: It seems like the Heat can always turn an unheralded guard into a real contributor, and although Vincent proved as much on the court, it never led to sustained fantasy success. He set a new career-high in playing time but more availability from Kyle Lowry meant fewer starts, and Vincent had fewer opportunities to get into a real rhythm overall. He proved to be an extremely hot and cold value thanks to the high variance in his shooting percentage, but those wild swings made him tough to roster consistently in builds that valued well-roundedness. Vincent was generally a safe pick for some steals and triples, but you needed to catch lightning in a bottle to get more than that.

John Konchar, G/F, Memphis Grizzlies

Results: Konchar didn’t take a huge leap forward in terms of playing time but the stat set carried him to a solid deep-league effort.

Verdict: A weird win, we’ll take it

Reason: Konchar didn’t get up to the 24 mpg we were hoping for, but he still established a new career-high with 20.7 mpg across 72 appearances. He finished as a top-215/180 value in 8/9-cat formats, which lines up with what we wrote last year: “If he can get closer to 24 mpg, Konchar should be able to sail into the top-200 with enough multi-cat upside to think he could be a top-180 asset with some good luck.” The real kicker is that Konchar did all that despite his efficiency plummeting. He shot just .431 from the floor, the first of his four seasons under .500 in that department. The smattering of stats across the box was still there, and if Konchar was able to convert his looks at the expected rates we’d have a borderline top-150 guy on our hands. As it stands, Konchar was a win, but almost despite himself.

Deep Cut Special

Jalen Johnson, F, Atlanta Hawks

Results: Preseason talk about Johnson taking on a larger role was technically correct, but his playing time couldn’t support legitimate value.

Verdict: Maybe next year…

Reason: The Hawks had another season with lots of drama that led to a coaching change, and enough depth above Johnson on the depth chart to keep him held down. He did play in 70 games and was able to drop 5.6 points, 4.0 rebounds, 1.2 rebounds, 0.5 steals and 0.5 blocks in only 14.6 mpg, but that wasn’t enough to carve out more than top-300 appeal.

In Summary

Not our best year ever with only three clear wins, but managers shouldn’t have been too upset about the numbers from Martin and Eason, and even Hartenstein was viable in the proper builds. Even so, the magnitude of wins on Okongwu and Collins in particular made it another fruitful season. That’s our bare minimum expectation around here, however, so we’re going to try and up those numbers this time around.

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NBA Draft Guide: FIBA’s Impact on Fantasy Basketball (Team USA Edition) https://sportsethos.com/top-posts/the-fibas-impact-on-fantasy-basketball-team-usa-edition/ https://sportsethos.com/top-posts/the-fibas-impact-on-fantasy-basketball-team-usa-edition/#respond Sun, 27 Aug 2023 02:29:15 +0000 https://sportsethos.com/?p=408098 Imagine being an NBA player: Waking up at the crack of dawn and getting some weightlifting in, going to practice followed by hours of meetings and then back to getting mentally and physically prepared to play one of the most physically and athletically draining games to ever be created…and then to do it all over again for (hopefully) 8 months straight. 

I wouldn’t know because I like to gamble.

Well that’s just what I was thinking the other day. NBA players have to keep up this routine for nearly 8 months, but in the offseason they get more time for leniency. 

Unless you get the opportunity to play for your home country in the FIBA Basketball World Cup.

So you’re telling me that there are players that play in the most competitive basketball tournament in the world during the break that these players finally get to take after a long season? Absolutely, because the love for basketball runs deeper than just 82 games. 

The real question is how does this affect their play in the following season and what kind of things can we expect from the players that participate in the tournament this season?

2023 USA FIBA World Cup Team

In order of age:
Paolo Banchero, Anthony Edwards, Walker Kessler, Tyrese Haliburton, Jaren Jackson Jr, Austin Reaves, Brandon Ingram, Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges, Cameron Johnson, Josh Hart and Bobby Portis.

We have a mix of players who are starters on their team or role players, proven and unproven, on the prowl for greatness and All-Star nominations. What this team has in common with each other is that they’re younger than most teams that Team USA has put out in the past. 

This mix of players gets to learn a lot from playing with each other as well as getting the opportunity to work with some of the best coaches the country has to offer. The experience that they gain from playing this tournament can take them a long way. 

What can we expect from them in this year’s group of players in this upcoming NBA season following the tournament?

Well for that we’re going to have to do some research on seasons past.

2014 USA FIBA World Cup Team

In order of age:
Andre Drummond, Anthony Davis, Kyrie Irving, Demarcus Cousins, Mason Plumlee, Klay Thompson, Kenneth Faried, James Harden, Demar Derozan, Derrick Rose, Stephen Curry and Rudy Gay. 

After researching the roster and crunching the numbers, we’re going to be taking a look at the seasons of Anthony Davis, James Harden and Demar Derozan before and after their FIBA World Cup games. 

Name 2013-14 Fantasy Points 2014-15 Fantasy Points (=/-) 2013-14 Games Played 2014-15 Games Played (=/-)
Anthony Davis 2806(15) 3219(5) +413(+10) 67 68 +1
James Harden 2995(10) 3722(1) +727(+9) 73 81 +12
Demar Derozan 2724(-19) 1882(67) -842(-48) 79 60 -19

Anthony Davis

After his first All-Star appearance, Davis elected to play with Team USA for the summer and that did wonders for his game moving forward. At this point, we know Anthony Davis is dominant, but we didn’t know how high we should be setting the bar. After the summer, he went on to average 24 PPG, while keeping up with his high IQ defense and stellar rebounding, after only averaging 20 in the season prior. That set a new normal for him and since then he has not looked back. Injuries held him back but if he got the full workload of the 82-game season in 2014-15, Davis would have scored nearly 3,600 fantasy points and finished at number 2 on the season. Anthony Davis would have finished number 1 in the 2014-2015 season if it weren’t for this next guy.

James Harden

Harden dominated the season after the FIBA tournament as the number one fantasy-scoring player in the league. Do I need to say more? He took one of the biggest leaps that I’ve seen with a nearly 800-point differential. He upgraded every single aspect of his game and the difference showed on the court as he continued to dominate for years after this summer. 

Demar Derozan

Derozan got the short end of the stick. He got hit with the injury bug and took a step down averaging fewer points on a lower efficiency. This is what happens from time to time, players do tend to have a higher chance of getting hurt when they overwork themselves and he was one of those players. 

2019 USA FIBA World Cup Team

In order of age:
Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Donovan Mitchell, Myles Turner, Derrick White, Marcus Smart, Harrison Barnes, Joe Harris, Khris Middleton, Kemba Walker, Mason Plumlee and Brook Lopez.

After researching the roster and crunching the numbers, we’re going to be taking a look at the seasons of Jayson Tatum, Jalen Brown, and Kemba Walker. 

Name 2018-19 Fantasy Points(Rank) 2019-20 Fantasy Points(Rank) (=/-) 2018-19 Games Played 2019-20 Games Played (=/-)*
Jayson Tatum  2227(50) 2544(15) -317(+35) 79 66 -13
Jaylen Brown 1592(124) 1817(61) -225(+63) 74 57 -17
Kemba Walker 3320(12) 1842(58) -1468(46) 82 56 -26

*will not be putting weight on the games missed due to COVID

Jayson Tatum

The point total doesn’t show for it but Tatum went from averaging 15.7 PPG to 23.4 PPG and took over as the leader of the Boston Celtics this season. He only played two games for Team USA, but he is a product of his environment so if he didn’t get this opportunity to experience it, he wouldn’t have taken off the way he did. Jayson would have ended with nearly 2,800 fantasy points with a top-10 fantasy finish compared to finishing at 15. 

Jaylen Brown

Brown must’ve taken everything that Tatum took from that experience because he also took a step forward from averaging 13.0 PPG to 20.3 PPG. He got a full workload during his time there and you can see how that helped him as he improved his efficiency. If Jaylen had played up to par with games that were played that season, he would have ended with 2,300 fantasy points with a top-30 fantasy finish. 

Kemba Walker

This is where things take a turn. Kemba Walker went into the 2019 summer with Team USA and killed it. He led them in scoring and was the leader of this squad. The sights were set on the NBA season and though he was great in the games he played, this was the start of the unraveling of Walker. He racked up injuries this season that would start his decline as the 2019-2020 season was the last he was an All-Star. The extra work that he put into the offseason could have been more of a factor than people think and to this day we are going to wonder what could Kemba have been. Kemba still finished in the top 60 with his ceiling finish in the top 30. 

Here are the trends that I’ve been able to pick up on after doing these studies.

Key Insights

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LISTEN: FIBA World Cup: Day 2 recap

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NBA Draft Guide Preview: Fantasy Faceoff 2022-23 Review https://sportsethos.com/top-posts/nba-draft-guide-preview-fantasy-faceoff-2022-23-review/ https://sportsethos.com/top-posts/nba-draft-guide-preview-fantasy-faceoff-2022-23-review/#respond Mon, 21 Aug 2023 14:24:30 +0000 https://sportsethos.com/?p=407894 Readers, I am so excited to get back to talking fantasy basketball with you this season. Summer is coming to an end and that means NBA basketball is on the horizon, so it’s time to reflect with a recap of last year’s Fantasy Faceoff series before I dive right back in next week with some new head-to-head matchups for you to consider ahead of draft day. 

Last summer, we looked at five matchups of positional peers that were expected to go in the early-to-mid rounds in standard re-draft leagues with an eye on their past (two seasons ago), present (last season) and future (projections) as 9-cat producers. Admittedly, injuries mucked things up for some of the head-to-heads so there were some hits (Jaylen Brown over Brandon Ingram and DeMar DeRozan over Khris Middleton) and misses (LaMelo Ball over Tyrese Haliburton, Bam Adebayo over Domantas Sabonis and Terry Rozier over C.J. McCollum). In the game of fantasy projections, you win some and you lose some but the most important thing going into any draft is to ensure you’re getting good value within the range of your pick. Notwithstanding the uncontrollable -injuries-  my theoretical teams wouldn’t have suffered much for my misses, given the draft range of players in each matchup. I hope to improve my win percentage this year while picking player matchups that are solid bets to return good value in their projected draft range.

So here it is, folks. Let’s go matchup by matchup and review the seasons each player had. In some cases, I might switch my picks if I had to re-do the same matchups for the upcoming season but don’t be surprised if I double down on one or two of my misses. You’ll have to read more to find out who and why.

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LaMelo Ball vs. Tyrese Haliburton

My 2022-23 Pick: LaMelo Ball
Winner: Tyrese Haliburton

2022-2023 Stats

Ball: 

23.3 PPG, 4.0 3PT, 6.4 RPG, 8.4 APG, 1.3 SPG, 0.3 BPG, 3.6 TO, .411 FG%, .836 FT%

36 games, 838 points, 144 3-pointers, 231 rebounds, 304 assists, 46 steals, 11 blocks, 129 turnovers, 296-of-721 field goals, 102-of-122 free throws

Haliburton:

20.7 PPG, 2.9 3PT, 3.7 RPG, 10.4 APG, 1.6 SPG, 0.4 BPG, 2.5 TO, .490 FG%, .871 FT%

56 games, 1160 points, 161 3-pointers, 205 rebounds, 585 assists, 91 steals, 25 blocks, 141 turnovers, 412-of-841 field goals, 175-of-201 free throws

There’s no debating the Ball-Haliburton matchup in hindsight. That was a clean sweep in favor of Haliburton after Ball only managed to appear in 36 games and his opponent leveled up as a scorer, shooter and playmaker while improving his efficiency. Ask dynasty managers how they feel about this matchup and you might still find that it is an open debate. There’s really no going wrong with two lead guards that seem likely to contend for first-round value in the next five-plus years. However, it’s now clear that Haliburton has the lead for the short term as the more productive fantasy player with the better team. 

Ball remains the better scorer and shooter but apparently less so than when I wrote the Fantasy Faceoff piece comparing him with Haliburton. There was once about five points per game between them and now there are less than three. I was correct in identifying Haliburton as the better potential assist producer in this matchup and was also proven right with his superior per-game production in blocks, shooting percentages, steals and turnovers. Assists could prove to be a swing category and Ball might be able to draw even as a steals producer but Haliburton is likely to stay at or above the level with his competitor in those areas. Despite some overall efficiency concerns, it seems clear that Ball has once again leveled up as a three-point sniper and is going to flirt with top-12 value there when healthy, so he should continue to outperform Haliburton there. However, if I had the chance to do this one over again, I would definitely switch to Haliburton as he has clearly thrived with another boost in usage and is already outpacing Ball despite the former’s considerably higher career usage rate. 

 

Bam Adebayo vs. Domantas Sabonis

My 2022-23 Pick: Bam Adebayo
Winner: Domantas Sabonis

2022-2023 Stats

Adebayo: 

20.4 PPG, 0.0 3PT, 9.2 RPG, 3.2 APG, 1.2 SPG, 0.8 BPG, 2.5 TO, .540 FG%, .806 FT%

75 games, 1529 points, one 3-pointer, 688 rebounds, 240 assists, 88 steals, 61 blocks, 187 turnovers, 602-of-1114 field goals, 324-of-402 free throws

Sabonis: 

19.1 PPG, 0.4 3PT, 12.3 RPG, 7.3 APG, 0.8 SPG, 0.5 BPG, 2.9 TO, .615 FG%, .742 FT%

79 games, 1510 points, 31 3-pointers, 973 rebounds, 573 assists, 65 steals, 39 blocks, 230 turnovers, 577-of-938 field goals, 325-of-438 free throws

Remember last season when most people found it too easy to discount the Kings due to their extensive playoff drought? Even as a self-proclaimed Sabonis optimist, I didn’t see a surge to nearly top-20 per-game value and top-10 totals value in the cards. Both had been proven more realistic in Adebayo’s career and after what I remember being the closest call of all my matchups, I ended up giving the Heat pivot the favor of the doubt due to historical precedent as much as anything else. Was I wrong to expect a man nicknamed “The Ox” to continue trudging along at the same pace as he always had?

What I didn’t see coming was a nearly twofold increase in assist value from Sabonis, who also stepped up as a field goal percentage anchor. On the contrary, Adebayo both regressed and stayed in place, in a sense. On his way to another NBA Finals appearance, the 6’9” center actually beat his per-game and totals valuation from the 2021-2022 season despite backsliding in rebounds, assists, steals and field goal percentage averages. That’s a net draw for him, while his peer made a massive leap by comparison. They’re close enough that it could be argued either way but if history repeats itself, then the Kings center now has a slight edge. But which history? It’s equally possible that Adebayo could regain his 1-and-1 blocks and steals production from earlier years and in so doing would likely become the better choice once again. That or returning to 5+ assists per game could help to close the gap with Sabonis in that category. As he enters his physical prime on a championship contender, it’s hard to rule either scenario out for Adebayo. Sabonis just became a top-20 fantasy player for the first time in his career but his opponent reached that pinnacle several seasons ago and could reasonably return with previously-achieved marks in assists, blocks or boards. If I had to do this again, I wouldn’t do it differently because it likely will cost one of your first two or three picks to get either one and Adebayo’s peak potential remains higher than Sabonis. 

 

Jaylen Brown vs. Brandon Ingram

My 2022-23 Pick: Jaylen Brown
Winner: Jaylen Brown

2022-2023 Stats

Brown: 

26.6 PPG, 2.4 3PT, 6.9 RPG, 3.5 APG, 1.1 SPG, 0.4 BPG, 2.9 TO, .491 FG%, .765 FT%

67 games, 1784 points, 163 3-pointers, 459 rebounds, 232 assists, 75 steals, 26 blocks, 197 turnovers, 679-of-1383 field goals, 263-of-344 free throws

Ingram: 

24.7 PPG, 1.4 3PT, 5.5 RPG, 5.8 APG, 0.7 SPG, 0.4 BPG, 3.3 TO, .484 FG%, .882 FT%

45 games, 1112 points, 64 3-pointers, 246 rebounds, 262 assists, 32 steals, 19 blocks, 148 turnovers, 404-of-835 field goals, 240-of-272 free throws

These two were natural opponents after being picked back-to-back in the 2016 NBA Draft and carving out similar careers as high-scoring second options. Of course, Brown has experienced better fantasy results recently along with significantly more team success, and is certainly benefitting from the gravity of his consistently healthy superstar teammate(s). That seems to be the case again, leaving last year’s arguments in Brown’s favor mostly unchanged. In terms of counting stats and general standing with the NBA fanbase, Brown and Ingram are fairly similar. However, yours truly was unequivocal in giving the Celtics swingman a past, present and future sweep as the better fantasy option and I promise not to change my tune. 

No matter what optimism Ingram’s summer with USA Basketball could generate, he remains the poorer defensive option and has lost ground to Brown in treys. Further, he has been less available for games than his peer. Last year, I wrote “Drafting Ingram commits a manager to four main categories: points, treys, assists and free throws. Among these categories, it’s only truly clear that Ingram can give teams an extra advantage over Brown in two of these areas.” Ingram is only better if you focus on assist or free throw value. It remains true that the Pelicans forward should be a worthy option within the top 50 for teams looking to get a boost in the aforementioned areas and that he has the tools to surpass Brown as a fantasy producer but I see no reason to predict that one will grow at a significantly greater rate than the other as they approach the pinnacle of their respective careers. You have to know what’s going to get better for the uniquely talented Ingram before you say it will be so. In particular, the Duke product will need to get his 3-point output back up to the two-plus treys per game that he started out with in New Orleans before he should be considered as a potentially better pick than Brown. That or a boost in assists could be x-factors in re-opening this debate. 

DeMar DeRozan vs. Khris Middleton

My 2022-23 Pick: DeMar DeRozan
Winner: DeMar DeRozan

2022-2023 Stats

DeRozan: 

24.5 PPG, 0.6 3PT, 4.6 RPG, 5.1 APG, 1.1 SPG, 0.5 BPG, 2.1 TO, .504 FG%, .872 FT%

74 games, 1816 points, 46 3-pointers, 343 rebounds, 377 assists, 83 steals, 36 blocks, 657-of-1303 field goals, 456-of-523 free throws

Middleton: 

15.1 PPG, 1.5 3PT, 4.2 RPG, 4.9 APG, 0.7 SPG, 0.2 BPG, 2.2 TO, .436 FG%, .902 FT%

33 games,  497 points, 51 3-pointers, 140 rebounds, 163 assists, 23 steals, five blocks, 71 turnovers, 177-of-406 field goals, 92-of-102 free throws

Every DeRozan piece I write should come with a disclaimer: I am a lifelong Raptors fan and was following his career back when SLAM Magazine was writing features on his AAU career with Lil’ Romeo and under Master P’s tutelage. You will rarely get an unbiased take on DeRozan from me but in this case, my declaration in his favor was entirely defensible. Another top-30 fantasy season certainly beats the Middleton roller coaster from last season. If we’re being honest, that roller coaster had more drops than climbs. Middleton struggled with injuries and then was injury-managed through the latter half of a disappointing season for Bucks fans and fantasy managers that drafted the Bucks sniper.

Despite being the younger man by a few years, Middleton had poorer health and that made what was otherwise a very close matchup a bit of a wash. He was never going to match DeRozan as a scorer but the same was true -moreso, even- with the Bulls swingman’s chances of competing in treys. Bulls DeRozan isn’t producing assists like Spurs DeRozan did and he’s now averaging less on a per-game basis than Middleton since that transition. They’re also pacing each other in boards, so DeRozan’s points are the only tiebreaker in counting stats production. If he returns to form, Middleton will likely continue to be the better defender next season but it is no longer clear that fantasy managers will see any benefit and there should be little debate that he will catch up to DeRozan’s value as a field goal percentage or free throw percentage contributor. Middleton is probably falling outside the top 50 in most drafts this year but it’s highly unlikely that the same occurs with DeRozan. The Bulls swingman gets the nod again but it should be noted that Middleton could still provide solid value if he slides past the middle rounds and shouldn’t be discounted too much for last season’s poor results. I’m not willing to close the door on another potential top-50 season for MIddleton just yet but not at the expense of an All-Star like DeRozan.

 

CJ McCollum vs. Terry Rozier

My 2022-23 Pick: Terry Rozier
Winner: CJ McCollum

2022-2023 Stats

McCollum: 

20.9 PPG, 2.8 3PT, 4.4 RPG, 5.7 APG, 0.9 SPG, 0.5 BPG, 2.4 TO, .437 FG%, .769 FT%

75 games, 1568 points, 211 3-pointers, 328 rebounds 429 assists, 70 steals, 38 blocks, 183 turnovers, 587-of-1344 field goals, 182-of-238 free throws

Rozier: 

21.1 PPG, 2.6 3PT, 4.1 RPG, 5.1 APG, 1.2 SPG, 0.3 BPG, 2.1 TO, .415 FG%, .809 FT%

63 games, 1329 points, 165 3-pointers, 259 rebounds, 319 assists, 74 steals, 16 blocks, 134 turnovers, 493-of-1188 field goals, 178-of-220 free throws

Don’t let their per-game valuations fool you: McCollum and Rozier are both better than top-100 players. It wasn’t that long ago that both were top-50 options and really, what changed? From a per-game perspective, they were actually quite good last season despite their seeming decline as fantasy producers. They were as good as ever in certain areas while declining in similar ways as well. 

I predicted a scoring boost for Rozier despite his stock trending down at the time and he came through with a career-high scoring mark of 21.1 points per game. McCollum was correctly identified as the better career scoring option and a likely peer or superior to Rozier as a points producer in the past season and he only narrowly missed the mark. Both set career highs in assists per game last year as well. However, I also was proven unfortunately correct that both would suffer a decline in efficiency, with McCollum continuing to disappoint as a free throw producer, narrowly missing a career-worst mark in turnovers per game and adding field goal percentage as a concern for the year ahead after putting up percentages not seen since his rookie and sophomore years with the Blazers. Not to be outdone, Rozier fell so hard in field goal percentage that he became an outright liability while also dropping to average in free throw percentage and losing a full point on his assist-to-turnover ratio. Their faults outweighed their gains last season and that explains the drop in fantasy valuation but that could work to some managers’ benefit if they fall to the top-100 range that they might seem to be. McCollum seems to be thriving as more of a primary playmaker and just beat Rozier in both per-game and total value. There were some red flags though, as the Pelicans guard played through thumb problems last year and waited until the offseason to have corrective surgery. His health picture looks worse when factoring in the torn labrum in his right shoulder from late last season. Terry Rozier is in a shallower backcourt rotation, has less wear-and-tear on his body and has kept pace with an elite combo guard like McCollum in counting stats over recent years. Declining efficiency and some injury concerns lost the day for McCollum more than they won the day for Rozier. A few years ago, it wouldn’t have been the same result or nearly as close.

 

Recap

I’m only willing to flip on one of my predictions from last year even though I missed more than I hit in hindsight. What can I say? I have my convictions. It’s important to know what you value and why when evaluating players for fantasy basketball and I think I have set out a clear standard for what amounts to a win or loss in each respective matchup. None of these matchups were foregone conclusions at the time of writing and that is arguably still true, with maybe one exception. I’ll be tackling these matchups and more as part of our NBA Draft Guide, coming out in just a few weeks!

BUY THE ALL-SPORT PASS TO GET FOOTBALL, BASEBALL, AND BASKETBALL CONTENT ALL IN ONE! LOCK IN THE $7/MONTH PRICE NOW BEFORE IT INCREASES WHEN THE DRAFT GUIDE DROPS!

That’s a wrap for this week. When we return, it’s going to be Kristaps Porzingis versus Myles Turner in a battle of stretch bigs. Chime in with your thoughts on that matchup in the comments and we’ll see if we agree next time around.

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NBA Fantasy Fun: The First Annual “All Do-Nothing” Fantasy Team https://sportsethos.com/nba-draft-guide-2023/nba-fantasy-fun-the-first-annual-all-do-nothing-fantasy-team/ https://sportsethos.com/nba-draft-guide-2023/nba-fantasy-fun-the-first-annual-all-do-nothing-fantasy-team/#respond Fri, 04 Aug 2023 06:43:31 +0000 https://sportsethos.com/?p=406528 In a lot of ways, fantasy basketball is all about bragging: finding the new stud, the beast in waiting, the unicorn. There are countless articles about “who is the next guy” to blow up.

This is not that kind of article. This article is about the polar opposite: players who are frequently rostered that do very little to help your team win. There are certainly emotional attachments, biases, and cluelessness that anchor these players in place. My hope is to snap you out of it if you habitually roster any of these players.

To be fair, these are all good players in real life. Most are lockdown defenders often responsible for defending the opposing team’s best offensive option and not much else. That’s nice, don’t care. This is fantasy and fantasy requires production. You’d think as a defense-first player they get at least a couple of stocks, right?

As a baseline, I looked at data from the past three years (thanks BasketballMonster) and established some cutoffs for the ADN team. The player has to have played in at least 41 games and averaged at least 25 minutes per game. This filters out scrubs. These are all meaningful rotation players. Then I screened out turnovers because this is about production. Then I looked at per 36 stats to create an even playing field. The remaining players were ranked by their overall z-scored value across all categories. For those of you not familiar with the method it adjusts for the relative prevalence of stats for all categories and combines them into one metric. For example, steals and blocks are more valuable than 3s because there are fewer of them, and that affects the overall value score.

Without further ado, I give you the first annual All-Do-Nothing starting five.

ADN Starters

PJ Tucker
Career Per-36 Averages: 8.5 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 1.8 APG, 1.4 SPG, 0.4 BPG, 42.5/36.6/74.9% Shooting Splits

I don’t get him at all. He’s all reputation at this point. Less than one three-pointer and less than one stock (steals and blocks) per game? If uncalled fouls and flops were a fantasy category then he’d rank a lot higher.

Isaac Okoro
Career Per-36 Averages: 10.7 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 2.1 APG, 1.1 SPG, 0.5 BPG, 45.9/33/74.9% Shooting Splits

I’m not ready to call him Jarett Culver yet, but Cleveland finally reduced his minutes last year.

Reggie Bullock
Career Per-36 Averages: 11.7 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 1.9 APG, 0.9 SPG, 0.2 BPG, 42.5/38.4/82.7% Shooting Splits

He’s a 3&D wing without the 3. Just 1.9 three-pointers per game last season despite averaging over 30 minutes.

Dorian Finney-Smith
Career Per-36 Averages: 10.7 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 1.8 APG, 1.0 SPG, 0.6 BPG, 43.7/35.7/72.3% Shooting Splits

This guy must have incriminating photos of Mark Cuban. Hope he has some of Joe Tsai.

Ayo Dosunmu
Career Per-36 Averages: 11.7 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 4.0 APG, 1.0 SPG, 0.5 BPG, 50.6/34.4/74.4% Shooting Splits

This may be a shocker, but what has he done really except for a couple nice runs when he got injury minutes on a bad team? At least he doesn’t shoot 40% like the other guys.

ADN Second Team

RJ Barrett – This is widely acknowledged and yet we continue to draft him. Other than points what does he do? When the shots decline he’s toast.
Cody Martin – We’ll have to make a special exception for the Martins as they are the only twins eligible for the ADN team.
Caleb Martin – Just shows how ridiculous his 2023 playoffs really were. As a Celtics fan am I petty? Bitter? Sure, what of it?
Patrick Williams – Time’s up, Pat. I had to make a special exception since he missed games in 2022, but he deserves the nod here.
Herb Jones – Whaaatttt? Everyone loves Herb. Just shows how little he does outside of steals. The ultimate one-trick pony.

So there it is. If you roster one of these guys you have no one to blame but yourself for losing. Who else would you put on the ADN team?

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NBA Offseason: 2023 NBA CBA Changes and Fantasy Impact https://sportsethos.com/articles/fantasy-pass/2023-nba-cba-changes-and-fantasy-impact/ https://sportsethos.com/articles/fantasy-pass/2023-nba-cba-changes-and-fantasy-impact/#comments Wed, 28 Jun 2023 18:04:28 +0000 https://sportsethos.com/?p=402447 Thankfully the NBA and the Players Association were able to agree to a new CBA, which is great news for us fans because basketball will continue to be played! However, there were a litany of changes with the new CBA, ones that I anticipate will massively dictate how NBA teams go about building their rosters. The CBA is quite an intricate document, but knowing some basic ins and outs can benefit dynasty managers in predicting future roster moves. Below, we’ll dive into the changes that go into effect for the upcoming 2023-2024 NBA season and cite some teams whose rosters could be affected.

Minimum Team Salary

We’ll start with a simple one – if on the first day of the regular season a team’s salary is below the minimum team salary (90% of salary cap), then the team will not receive tax distribution payments. The team will also pay the difference between the two to the NBA which will then distribute that amount to all players in the NBA. Previously, this difference was just paid to players on the specific team.

This change should incentivize teams to hit the minimum team salary at the beginning of the regular season. Teams can achieve this in numerous ways – handing out bloated one-year contracts in free agency; giving out more guarantees to roster camp invites; agreeing to renegotiate-and-extensions with their own players; acquiring salary dumps of other team’s players before the season starts instead of at the trade deadline. Teams like the Rockets, Pistons, Spurs, Thunder, Jazz, and Pacers all project to be well below the Minimum Team Salary – expect these teams to not be afraid of spending big in free agency and potentially be the dumping ground for unwanted contracts. Players like Kevin Porter Jr., Killian Hayes, Tre Jones and Talen Horton-Tucker could see their fantasy values fluctuate accordingly depending on how these teams behave in the off-season.

Mid-Level Exception Changes Galore!

Diving into something more detail-heavy, mid-level exceptions across the board have been modified. Firstly, the room mid-level exception (the exception given to teams who utilize cap space) is increasing from $5.4M to roughly $7.6M and can now be up to three years rather than two. Next, the non-taxpayer mid-level exception (MLE) is increasing to roughly $12.2M from $10.5M. Lastly, there are two sets of changes to the taxpayer mid-level exception (TMLE): It is now limited to 2-years at $5M per year max, and teams above the second tax apron level (to be discussed later) will not have access to the TMLE at all.

Quick and dirty summary – tax paying teams have less spending power via exceptions than before, and cap space and non-tax paying teams have more spending power. Players wishing to be on higher spending teams (typically contending teams) will have to take a larger salary cut than previous, which may or may change their decision on who to sign with it. Additionally, the room exception is now a more lucrative offer than the TMLE, which was not the case previously. This allows the room exception to be a competitive alternative to the TMLE, further muddying the decision waters for players.

With the above changes, we may see a greater distribution of talent across the seventh to ninth spots in bench rotations across the leagues. We may see more veterans opt to take a larger guaranteed contract over chasing that ring. Not only would this lead to varying playtime opportunities for said veterans, it could also lead to rookies and young under-performing players  getting less run in the beginning of the season. Pay close note to rumors and rumblings about how teams plan to use these modified exceptions. One team that already seems to be aligning itself to utilize the greater room exception is the Sacramento Kings. With their salary dump of Richaun Holmes’ $12M contract, the Kings could open up nearly $30M in cap space this offseason and still have the capability of using the new and improved room exception. Could they be trying to snipe Draymond Green or Jerami Grant? Side note – these moves would mean the Kings could not bring back Harrison Barnes who could be a nice addition to a different NBA locker room.

New Second Tax Apron and Hardened First Tax Apron

As previously mentioned, the new second tax apron should bring about massive ramifications for the top-spending teams in the league. The bulk of the new restrictions involved with the second tax apron will not come into effect until the 2024-2025 NBA season, so we won’t go into detail on them here. Just know they are rather punitive and will be a deterrence to teams looking to spend above the second tax apron line. The one limitation going into effect for this upcoming year is second apron teams (set at $17.5M above the luxury tax line) will not have access to any type of mid-level exception.

Teams projected to be at this level include the Clippers, Warriors, Bucks, Heat, Suns, and potentially other teams. These teams will have to rely on their own Bird Rights free agents, minimum signings, and draft picks to round out their rosters. Without the TMLE, there is the potential for young prospects and players to earn rotation spots that otherwise vets would have taken. Deep league managers rejoice – perhaps MarJon Beauchamp, Jason Preston, Jalen Johnson, or Nikola Jović could provide steady lower-tier value. These are just some of the names I’m putting on my watch list; look for teams approaching the second apron line to opt for their current crop of cheaper options instead of looking outside the organization for rotation help. We just saw the Warriors make a grand move to alleviate future second apron concerns, dealing Jordan Poole and his 4-year/$128M along with a future protected first to the Wizards for Chris Paul and his potentially expiring $30.8M contract (his $30M in 2024-25 is non-guaranteed). Then there’s John Collins with his 3-year/$78.5M contract that was essentially dumped into the Utah Jazz’s cap space to keep the Hawks out of the tax. This could just be the tip of the iceberg – as discussed earlier, plenty of teams will be trying to reach that minimum salary floor, and there is no shortage of teams that could be looking to dump bloated contracts.

First apron teams (set at approximately $7M above the tax line) also have a minor reason to think about whether to enter this limit or not. Teams into the first apron cannot sign a buyout player if their previous salary was at the MLE level or higher. Buyout guys tend to be overrated, but there is still usually one or two who can play a part down the stretch for fantasy rosters. One of the clearest examples that would not be allowed going forward is the Clippers signing of Russell Westbrook after his trade and subsequent cut from the Jazz. The Clippers did give Westbrook more opportunity to “Let Russ be Russ”, and he was a useful and more efficient player than on the Lakers. However, I still don’t expect this buyout clause addition to have much impact on us dynasty managers.

Extension Allowances

We’ll end by discussing two changes to extension rules. The first is with veteran salary extensions. Veterans can now sign up to 140% of the previous salary, up from 120%. This could have impacted players like Myles Turner during the previous season. Turner did end up extending but under the renegotiate-and-extend rules, a type of extension rarely seen in the NBA. With this change, I expect even less mid-tier free agents available in upcoming seasons. Players like Kyle Kuzma this past year may have signed an extension with the Wizards; perhaps someone like Markelle Fultz will now be willing to sign an extension with the Magic this upcoming year. Expect some more immediate continuity on rosters with players securing the guaranteed extension and still having the option of seeking a trade later if they desire. Otherwise, this is probably not a huge impact for us dynasty managers.

The second extension change is with rookie extensions. Before, rookie extensions that were up to five years could only be for their max salary. With the new CBA, five-year rookie extensions are possible with any salary level. This change allows teams more options when negotiating rookies extensions similar to the above extension change. I don’t think this change will affect too much for fantasy – we may see similar guarantee numbers as a four-year max but now over five years instead to spread out the cap hit.

Summary

Whew, that was a lot of nitty-gritty cap lingo there! The above list was not necessarily a fully-encompassing one, but the major ones we should be aware of. I strongly believe at least a basic understanding of what tools and tricks NBA teams have in building their rosters can be beneficial to how we build our own dynasty rosters. Knowing what resources teams have at their disposal and what player moves can reasonably happen is key to our evaluation of players and their value moving forward. Getting a jump on acquiring players in previous years like Bruce Brown in Denver or Donte DiVincenzo with the Warriors would have paid dividends this past season. When free agency starts, be on the lookout for how teams navigate these new CBA rules, and identify and target those players you believe will be looking at new opportunities for their fantasy value to rise! Any questions, comments, or further discussion wanted? Hit me up on Twitter @MACAttack145 or comment below!

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NBA Offseason: 2023 Pre-Free Agency Value Swings https://sportsethos.com/top-posts/2023-pre-free-agency-value-swings/ https://sportsethos.com/top-posts/2023-pre-free-agency-value-swings/#respond Wed, 28 Jun 2023 17:49:07 +0000 https://sportsethos.com/?p=403584 NBA free agency is just around the corner for 2023 and, as always, it will be the most fun, chaotic period of the league calendar. It presents an opportunity for teams to improve their rosters, whether through signings or via the trade market, and some big names could be on the move through either channel. The fantasy values of players will be affected one way or another and in this piece, we’ll be looking at notable players who could be looking at a wild swing in value depending on how things go.

Kevin Porter Jr.
PG, Houston Rockets

This one is going under Kevin Porter Jr., but it might as well be the entire Rockets team. Houston is one of the few teams with ample money to toss around and all rumors indicate that they’re ready to do so. The big one is their alleged pursuit of James Harden, though that has cooled in recent weeks. Now the talk of the town is that Houston is considering a run at Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks and Brook Lopez, with Austin Reaves also a name of note. The Rockets aren’t shooting for bargains, there — VanVleet and Lopez are probably the top available names at their respective positions while Reaves is going to get a Lakers-related bump in value around the league on top of him already being quite good in his own right. Consider that the Rockets are already entering the season with:

Kevin Porter Jr.
Jalen Green
Amen Thompson
Cam Whitmore
Alperen Sengun
Jabari Smith Jr.
Tari Eason
Jae’Sean Tate
Kenyon Martin Jr. (for now)

That’s nine players who have strong claim to regular minutes; you could expand it to younger players who need playing time like Usman Garuba, TyTy Washington and Josh Christopher. Someone, or two, is already going to get the squeeze in terms of minutes, and we don’t know how Ime Udoka values these guys to begin with. He also didn’t take this job to steer another lengthy rebuild; Udoka was brought in to channel some of this talent into wins, with veteran help being brought in accordingly. This has the potential to be a big mess for fantasy purposes.

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