Part of being a reasonable analyst is looking back on your past work and sorting out what worked and what didn’t. We’ve got to engender some accountability here, but more than that, we’re looking for why past mistakes were made. What about our old opinions and research blew up in our faces? Or better yet, what was dead-on correct?

Given how hard it is for a player picked in most 12-team leagues to totally bottom out, most busts will have held value somewhere. We were not, and are rarely going to, try and call shots on insane degradation of play. Instead, we’re looking at these players to see whether they met their ADPs, or whether the difference between ADP and final value was still worth the time.

With that in mind, let’s take a look back at last season’s predicted Busts to see where the hits and misses were.

Clint Capela

Results: Even fighting against the surge of Onyeka Okongwu, Capela managed to outdo his ADP handily with an early-middle round season.

Verdict: Clint Cap-L-a

Reasons: Full marks to Capela. Okongwu had all the momentum in the offseason but the veteran held strong, though his fantasy resurgence was largely due to a spike in his field goal percentage (and free throws, though they were still bad) that offset marginal dips in the counting stats. With players like this, it’s important to remember that they have a high perch to fall from. Capela doesn’t do a ton across the box, but his areas of specialty are remarkably strong, so any little dips will still end up delivering a reasonable season as long as he doesn’t crater. He also has a stat set that you can project fairly easily; you know what to expect even as he declines. Capela very much did not crater, and it also helped that the Hawks somehow made it through another season of major trade rumors without actually acting on any of them.

Bogdan Bogdanovic

Results: Bogdanovic ended up right around his ADP, outrunning the specter of Atlanta’s new backcourt as well as a late start to the season.

Verdict: Tip your cap, L

Reasons: It was all working against Bogdanovic this past season, and he was already a player who got some favorable breaks in his past time with Atlanta. Him entering the season injured after undergoing knee surgery was enough of a red flag to push Bogdanovic down draft boards, but he was able to hit the ground running upon his return after a couple of bumps in the road shooting-wise. The addition of Dejounte Murray didn’t detract a ton from Bogdanovic’s playmaking output and he was able to get away with only slight downticks in most categories. This shouldn’t have worked at all, but it did, so fair play to Bogdanovic for holding onto 12-team appeal.

Jaden Ivey

Results: Ivey finished outside the top-150 and was a disaster in 9-cat.

Verdict: Easy W

Reasons: Ivey did a ton of good things in his rookie season, but producing fantasy value wasn’t one of them. In his defense, it’s not like he forced anyone to draft him. Players like this just need time to get a grip on the NBA game and there are major hurdles to fantasy appeal from the jump. Efficiency and turnovers were already looking like problem areas and the early exit of Cade Cunningham, while opening up a pathway for a huge rule, only exacerbated the issues. Sometimes unchecked minutes in a starring role are not good for fantasy value, and that’s what we saw here. Hopefully Ivey is the next in a long line of guards who hit the gas pedal in their sophomore efforts.

Julius Randle

Results: Randle was unable to meet his ADP, but not by enough for managers to be truly disappointed in the returns.

Verdict: Julius Rand-L

Reasons: It was not at all fun to watch Randle rack up his numbers, using iso possessions by the handful, but he got the numbers in the end. The real saving grace for him was that the addition of Jalen Brunson eased a lot of the offensive burden and put Randle in position to make his shots at a better clip. A big rise in efficiency led to an accompanying spike in points and Randle even set a new career-high in 3-pointers made, even though that shouldn’t necessarily be a goal for him. There was one big swing factor in Randle’s campaign, and he happened to nail it with big help from a reconstructed roster.

Christian Wood

Results: Wood hit his free throws.

Verdict: Push?

Reasons: Wood didn’t meet his ADP, but he still managed a top-100 season. Like we mentioned with Ivey above, this is another player who may be better suited to a streamlined role with limited usage, as his worst instincts rise to the top quickly when he’s treated as a go-to guy. Wood saw the expected downturn in playing time as a member of the Mavs but kept his stats at a reasonable level — the difference-maker for him was that he shot .772 at the charity stripe after going .623 and .631 in the previous two seasons. Had Wood continued to provide punt-worthy marks at the charity stripe this would’ve been an easy bust, but he came out of nowhere to hit those easy shots and stay afloat in the rankings.

Collin Sexton

Results: Sexton was not plugged in as the primary backcourt option for a surprisingly competitive Jazz team, and didn’t generate the volume needed to shine.

Verdict: Clear W

Reasons: Our hesitation with Sexton stemmed from the fact that he was coming off a major season-ending knee surgery, set to debut for a new team with a deep backcourt. The Jazz had every reason to ease him into action given their long-term goals, and then when they actually started winning games it became more difficult to change things up to let Sexton cook. The circumstances surrounding his high ADP made sense — young, talented player about to take on a big role for a rebuilding team — but that was already too aggressive to begin with considering his previous best season was a top-75/105 finish. Sexton was being drafted to duplicate those results, even off injury, in a new environment that can be hard to adjust to for score-first guards. A couple hamstring injuries basically wiped the second half of his season off the board, so managers who held out hope for a big finish weren’t even rewarded. Sexton finished as a top-200/240 guy despite being drafted in the middle rounds of many leagues.

RJ Barrett

Results: Barrett shot better from the field but made no real strides in his game.

Verdict: Predictable W

Reasons: Is there a proper setup that allows Barrett to be a major contributor of a successful fantasy team? Absolutely. Was that the case for most managers who drafted Barrett? Absolutely not. Like Randle above, Barrett benefited from Brunson pulling the strings on offense, but he felt a bit more of the squeeze in terms of volume. With no other real standout category besides points, that thin margin of error vanished, with Barrett finishing well outside the top-200. He was still an asset in points leagues and you could punt to his strengths, but Barrett needed some miraculous improvement across the board to have a puncher’s chance at meeting his ADP inside the top-100.

Russell Westbrook

Results: Westbrook managed a top-115 season in 8-cat but that was still about 40 spots back of his ADP, and he never stood a chance in 9-cat.

Verdict: Free Space

Reasons: The ADP that Westbrook’s name value delivers means he’s always going to be overdrafted from a pure value perspective. Perhaps the league’s most notable team jettisoning him from the roster dials this back a bit, but it was another easy call. You can construct a roster that allows Westbrook to be a legitimate help in fantasy leagues, but with him going as early as he did in drafts, it’s unlikely that things played out the way they needed to for most managers.

In Summary

Seems like a decent effort, with Christian Wood’s random free throw spike the only thing keeping us from some decisive victory. The market continued to push obviously flawed fantasy players up the draft board, and although not every pick you make is going to be a winner, it is always good to avoid a land mine — and not in the unpredictable form of someone getting injured. Remember, every player on the board does have the capacity to be a contributor, but you have to build out the rest of the roster in a way that works toward that goal. If not, you’re sitting with a player that’s detracting from whatever else you’ve built. In dodging potential busts, you’re simply getting out of your own way by making educated guesses.

Players who were outside the top-200 in 9-cat (per game) with ADPs around 125 or higher? Jalen Green, Westbrook, Sexton, Barrett, Paolo Banchero, Dillon Brooks, James Wiseman and John Wall. Overall, it would seem that the fantasy community is getting better at avoiding those huge, ‘blow up in your face’ busts so long as you can avoid the players who suffer major injuries. That makes our job harder and harder every year, but there’s fun in the challenge of it all.