Transparency and honesty are key attributes in many arenas —  especially fantasy analysis. It’s always nice to win one, but even when you’re off the mark it’s good to go back and look at the totality of things; what went right, what went wrong and why. With that in mind we like to take some time in each Draft Guide to look back at last year’s hits and misses, with particular attention paid to the marquee Sleepers category. It’s everyone’s favorite topic, after all.

There’s something beautiful about the simplicity; hitting on a sleeper communicates the basic idea that you knew your stuff better than your opponents. All of the players we picked as sleepers last year were available for every single one of your leaguemates, and if you snatched one (or more) of them up then you were just rolling in profits. Not everyone had the chance to pick Nikola Jokic, but everyone had multiple chances to select every player on this list. They weren’t all wins but we did get a couple nice values out of our callouts.

Standard Leagues

Onyeka Okongwu, C, Atlanta Hawks

Results: A top-100/75 (8/9-cat) season, with top-60 finishes in terms of total value, all without Okongwu truly hitting his ceiling.

Verdict: Huge W

Reason: Okongwu was a little bit of a stretch as a sleeper in that he was routinely being drafted as a late-round dart, but the obvious potential made him too appealing to ignore for selection here. Anyone who nabbed Okongwu ahead of his ADP was given a game-changer, though he did require a little patience. The first couple months of the season saw Okongwu drawing the short end of a timeshare with Clint Capela, posting value that had him near the cut line in 12-team leagues in about 20 mpg. He found his footing and was aided by some absences from Capela, getting a run of 10 Capela-less games starting in January that helped him take a big jump up the standings. From there it was clear that he needed to play more, and while he never got to author a true breakout it was enough to deliver a big season for fantasy GMs. Okongwu has a stat set that you can set your watch to, and even on his quieter nights he was getting good minutes and producing rebounds and blocks on a strong field goal percentage. Add it all up and you have a middle-round guy that was being drafted at flier prices.

Jalen Smith/Isaiah Jackson, F/C, Indiana Pacers

Results: Smith and Jackson, the heir apparents in the Indiana frontcourt, ended up outside the top-200 with their long-term futures suddenly up for debate.

Verdict: Rick Carlis-L

Reason: The Pacers just didn’t do what we thought they would. They were supposed to keep tanking and let the kids run wild, especially after re-signing Smith in free agency to start at power forward. Instead, the Pacers ended up being pretty competent, and the long-rumored trade of Myles Turner never came to pass — he actually signed an extension with Indiana after it looked like he’d be headed elsewhere for the past three seasons. With Smith getting off to a slow start and eventually losing his spot to Aaron Nesmith, plus the Pacers’ sudden abundance of rotation-caliber guards and forwards, both Smith and Jackson ended up at the edge of the rotation, and at times out of it entirely. At times it felt like Rick Carlisle was hunting for reasons to play anyone else, but at the end of the day Smith and Jackson couldn’t maintain the momentum they established at the end of 2021-22 and got lost in the shuffle.

Isaiah Hartenstein, C, New York Knicks

Results: Hartenstein finished just below full-time roster status in 12-team leagues despite cementing himself as a quality NBA player.

Verdict: Mild L

Reason: Tom Thibodeau’s rotation continued to be a tough nut to crack, and although Hartenstein quickly established himself as an every-night player who deserved a decent role, he could never prove a real threat to Mitchell Robinson. Credit Robinson for becoming an improved NBA player as well. It looked like Hartenstein was ready for rocket fuel after posting 16-8-4 in 40 minutes on opening night, but he settled into a modest career-high of 19.8 mpg. The real issues? Hartenstein’s field goal percentage and blocks dipped, carving off a few rounds of value. He remained a solid option to round out deep-league rosters, and there’s also the fact that the Knicks generally looked pretty good with him on the floor, but for our purposes Hartenstein fell short of a passing grade.

Caleb Martin, F, Miami Heat

Results: Martin finished right around his ADP as his stats remained fairly level despite an increase in playing time.

Verdict: Push — but imagine if the playoffs counted?

Reason: Martin did get the bigger role we projected for him, but a dip in efficiency plus a decline in his per-minute output of defensive stats kept him locked into late-round value. There were spurts of something more throughout the season but Martin was ultimately unable to grab hold of must-start status in fantasy. The playoffs served as his real coming out party, with Martin catching fire from the 3-point arc and logging huge minutes as one of Miami’s most trusted hands at forward. Unfortunately for us, those stats won’t count towards his fantasy value, meaning fantasy GMs basically got what they paid for considering his ADP.

Tari Eason, F, Houston Rockets

Results: The market got very excited about Eason, understandably so, but he wound up floating just above the cut line for most of the year.

Verdict: Push

Reason: It was trouble from the jump when we found out that Bruno Fernando would start over Alperen Sengun on opening night, as it pointed to the notion that the Rockets wouldn’t necessarily make an effort to showcase their top young talent. It wasn’t all that bad, as Eason eventually found his way into regular minutes, and managers who drafted him as the cherry on top of a well-rounded roster were probably happy with the returns. Eason only had 15 games without a steal or block this season and looked every bit the stat magnet that he proved to be in college, with his role increasing from month to month as the Rockets sank in the standings. He wasn’t quite the difference-maker everyone was hoping to snag late in drafts, but 1.2 steals and 0.6 blocks per game is hard to wave away as a disappointment. Like the rest of the Rockets, we’ll be watching to see how Eason reacts to a coaching staff that will try and run a tight ship — players who rack up big defensive numbers while constantly freelancing could be looking at a big adjustment period.

Deep Leagues

Jaylen Nowell, G, Minnesota Timberwolves

Results: Nowell dropped outside the top-250 and the Wolves gave up on him around midseason.

Verdict: Jaylen Nowe-L

Reason: Things got off to a roaring start as Nowell averaged 16.2 points and 1.8 triples on .471 shooting through his first five games, but it was all downhill from that point on. Even with the long-term absence of Karl-Anthony Towns, the Wolves piled minutes onto other bench options and Nowell didn’t help his own case with some wayward 3-point shooting. Falling from .394 to .298 from the arc was too much to overcome, especially when you’re supposed to be a microwave scorer. When the shots stopped falling, Nowell’s minutes started to dip, and that was all she wrote.

Zach Collins, F/C, San Antonio Spurs

Results: Collins finished the season as a late-round value, but those who actually had him rostered made out like bandits down the stretch.

Verdict: Clean W

Reason: In our Sleepers article, we wrote: “It’s a good developmental environment for him and the potential for a Jakob Poeltl trade at some point means that we could see Collins playing huge minutes by the end of the year. Health will always be a concern, but the variety of Collins’ production gets him close to the top-200 even in a strict backup role. Roll the dice at the end of 16-team drafts and don’t be surprised if he ends up going from useful presence to must-start guy over the course of the campaign.”

That’s exactly what happened, and the only thing slowing Collins down from an even bigger finish was the Spurs messing around with his own workload and yo-yoing him out of the lineup in their quest to maximize lottery odds. From the deadline onwards, Collins was a top-40 player in per-game value, with averages of 16.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.1 steals, 1.1 blocks and 1.6 3-pointers per game on .494 shooting.

Dean Wade, F, Cleveland Cavaliers

Results: Wade battled injuries and the Cavs, suddenly in win-now mode, weren’t willing to wait for him to get back up to speed.

Verdict: Hot start but an L

Reason: Wade had us feeling optimistic after a good start to the year that saw him post top-170/200 value through the end of November, but injuries started stacking up and left him playing catch-up for the rest of the campaign. He played 24.9 mpg in that early window, enough for him to deliver usable numbers in rebounds, steals, blocks and triples on a solid mark from the field. Wade only played in 28 games from December 1 onward, however, so we never got a real look at how he would’ve held up over a full season. As the Cavs climbed up the standings their rotation tightened, and although Wade is the type of guy that would’ve really lengthened their bench, Cleveland was unable to give him the time necessary to shake off all that rust.

Gabe Vincent, G, Miami Heat

Results: Vincent finished as a top-250 value and saw very little movement in his stat line despite a more secure role.

Verdict: Swing and a miss

Reason: It seems like the Heat can always turn an unheralded guard into a real contributor, and although Vincent proved as much on the court, it never led to sustained fantasy success. He set a new career-high in playing time but more availability from Kyle Lowry meant fewer starts, and Vincent had fewer opportunities to get into a real rhythm overall. He proved to be an extremely hot and cold value thanks to the high variance in his shooting percentage, but those wild swings made him tough to roster consistently in builds that valued well-roundedness. Vincent was generally a safe pick for some steals and triples, but you needed to catch lightning in a bottle to get more than that.

John Konchar, G/F, Memphis Grizzlies

Results: Konchar didn’t take a huge leap forward in terms of playing time but the stat set carried him to a solid deep-league effort.

Verdict: A weird win, we’ll take it

Reason: Konchar didn’t get up to the 24 mpg we were hoping for, but he still established a new career-high with 20.7 mpg across 72 appearances. He finished as a top-215/180 value in 8/9-cat formats, which lines up with what we wrote last year: “If he can get closer to 24 mpg, Konchar should be able to sail into the top-200 with enough multi-cat upside to think he could be a top-180 asset with some good luck.” The real kicker is that Konchar did all that despite his efficiency plummeting. He shot just .431 from the floor, the first of his four seasons under .500 in that department. The smattering of stats across the box was still there, and if Konchar was able to convert his looks at the expected rates we’d have a borderline top-150 guy on our hands. As it stands, Konchar was a win, but almost despite himself.

Deep Cut Special

Jalen Johnson, F, Atlanta Hawks

Results: Preseason talk about Johnson taking on a larger role was technically correct, but his playing time couldn’t support legitimate value.

Verdict: Maybe next year…

Reason: The Hawks had another season with lots of drama that led to a coaching change, and enough depth above Johnson on the depth chart to keep him held down. He did play in 70 games and was able to drop 5.6 points, 4.0 rebounds, 1.2 rebounds, 0.5 steals and 0.5 blocks in only 14.6 mpg, but that wasn’t enough to carve out more than top-300 appeal.

In Summary

Not our best year ever with only three clear wins, but managers shouldn’t have been too upset about the numbers from Martin and Eason, and even Hartenstein was viable in the proper builds. Even so, the magnitude of wins on Okongwu and Collins in particular made it another fruitful season. That’s our bare minimum expectation around here, however, so we’re going to try and up those numbers this time around.