Fantasy Faceoff!

Kristaps Porzingis vs. Myles Turner

PAST: Who was the better fantasy player?

2021-2022 Statistics

Porzingis: 

20.2 PPG, 1.5 3PT, 8.1 RPG, 1.6 APG, 0.5 SPG, 1.6 BPG, 1.6 TO, .459 FG%, .867 FT%

51 games, 1030 points, 78 3-pointers, 411 rebounds, 119 assists, 37 steals, 84 blocks, 81 turnovers, 352-of-767 field goals, 248-of-286 free throws

Turner: 

12.9 PPG, 1.5 3PT, 7.1 RPG, 1.0 APG, 0.7 SPG, 2.8 BPG, 1.3 TO, .509 FG%, .752 FT%

42 games, 540 points, 61 3-pointers, 297 rebounds, 44 assists, 28 steals, 118 blocks, 54 turnovers, 200-of-393 field goals, 79-of-105 free throws

The NBA season is 82 games long, so tons of managers got burned by the combined 71 games missed by Porzingis and Turner. The former had just completed a top-25 per game season and the latter had just wrapped up a top-15 effort. After those results, it would have been near-impossible to find them past the third or fourth round in almost any re-draft format. By their averages, it’s arguably that both men met expectations after returning top-25 valuations on a per-game basis but after leaving nearly a full season’s worth of games unplayed, it’s hard to make the blanket statement that they had a truly great fantasy season.

Porzingis split the season between Dallas and Washington after a mid-season trade which saw him miraculously return from a 14-game absence the moment he switched uniforms. Had that right knee bone bruise and presumably some risk-averse Mavs personnel not kept him off-court, the combined result would have made Porzingis an undeniable early-round asset by averages and totals. The 7’3″ Latvian beat Turner in 6-of-9 categories, with blocks, field goals percentage and turnovers being the exceptions. Given that blocks are the only truly impactful victory for Turner -whose turnover value is lost in 8-cat formats or punts and who doesn’t shoot often enough to truly help in field goals percentage- it is especially important to note that he was miles ahead (pun intended) of his peer. Porzingis was a top-10 rim protector among centers but even his 1.6 blocks per game paled in comparison to Turner’s 2.8. That’s more than twice the weighted value of Porzingis’ already strong contributions in this category and anchors any case for Turner as an elite fantasy player. Outside of that very niche area, there’s only one way to judge the 2021-2022 matchup of Porzingis and Turner. 

Verdict: Porzingis

PRESENT: Who is the better fantasy player?

2022-2023 Statistics

Porzingis: 

23.2 PPG, 2.1 3PT, 8.4 RPG, 2.7 APG, 0.9 SPG, 1.5 BPG, 2.1 TO, .498 FG%, .851 FT%

65 games, 1505 points, 137 3-pointers, 546 rebounds, 174 assists, 58 steals, 100 blocks, 137 turnovers, 507-of-1018 field goals, 354-of-416 free throws 

Turner: 

18.0 PPG, 1.5 3PT, 7.5 RPG, 1.4 APG, 0.6 SPG, 2.3 BPG, 1.7 TO, .548 FG%, .783 FT%

62 games, 1113 points, 93 3-pointers, 466 rebounds, 89 assists, 36 steals, 140 blocks, 103 turnovers, 402-of-733 field goals, 216-of-276 free throws

At the conclusion of the 2022-2023 season, both Porzingis and Turner had set career bests in field goal percentage and points per game while also appearing in significantly more contests. In fact, they dropped from 71 combined missed games to only 37 and in so doing became thoroughly average in terms of availability. There was no waste in selecting either player for last season, especially when considering their consistent availability for fantasy playoff season. Managers got a winner with their picks of Porzingis or Turner but there’s no fun in calling this a tie, so who’s on top?

Turner gets major bonus points for becoming an above-average scorer in the last season but it’s worth noting that Turner’s career-high mark would be Porzingis’ second-worst result. Given the real impact of about five points per game is approximately 10-to-20 points per week on average, there isn’t as big a gap as one might think. Porzingis retains his win in this area but he lost a lot of ground to his rival, who graduated from a punt points option to a pseudo-asset in a single season. Turner has always had the higher field goal percentage but scoring more meant he was also taking more shots. Increased shot volume increases his already solid value in this area, whereas Porzingis’ boost was from negative to exactly average and his change was more about reducing losses than improving gains. In regards to where they became better this year, it seems clear that Turner moved the needle a bit more. However, those two categories aren’t what make them unique among centers. As floor-spacing bigs, they’re often identified for out-of-position value in treys and free throws. In these areas and other less-important ones like assists or steals, Porzingis retains his lead. Do we give him much credit for being a better bad option in the latter? Barely, but yes. While I am tempted to reward Turner’s more notable improvements, minor advantage in turnovers and wider margins of victory in blocks and field goal percentage, the fact remains that Porzingis out-produced him by averages and totals with key victories in points, treys, rebounds and free throw percentage. Even if we dispense with their shared outright negative production in assists and steals, the fact remains that Porzingis’ four winning categories are greater than Turner’s two or three. Chalk another one up for the Unicorn.

Verdict: Porzingis

FUTURE: Who will be the better fantasy player in 2023-24?

Well, we’re at 2-0 for Porzingis after the first two stages. I do have a background in sales but I might not be good enough to sell you on Turner at this point. That’s not going to stop me from trying. Perhaps I could sell you on how their respective environments could alter their outcomes.

Turner has only ever been a Pacer, albeit a Pacer that seems to be perpetually on the verge of not being a Pacer. Trades are often rumored for the Texas alum but they have been substantiated with Porzingis several times, including this off-season as he was sent to play third-fiddle to Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum with the Celtics. 

Whereas Turner will play alongside a playmaking star in Tyrese Haliburton in an egalitarian offense, Porzingis will now find himself sharing the ball with a pair of shoot-first swingmen that both averaged 20-plus shots per game. That’s about half of the shots a team takes in a game. For Porzingis -who has taken about 15 shots per game over the last three seasons- that could be a problem. Over that same period of time, only Kemba Walker has managed to get 11 or more shots a night alongside the Brown-Tatum duo. If Porzingis falls to that shot volume, he will likely lose his scoring advantage over Turner and his once-solid lead could progress even further than it did last season towards a tie. While it might be extreme to predict a major shift in shot diet, it’s very likely going to be true that Porzingis gets less shots up next season. Efficiency would then become an x-factor in determining how much ground he yields to Turner in that scenario. 

The gravity of two superstars should yield tons of open looks and generally produce a higher quality of shots. That should make Porzingis’ field goal percentage sustainable but not in a way that would translate as well to fantasy impact. If connecting on more shots at a higher rate results in better field goal percentage results for a fantasy team then the reverse is true as well. Further, on a spacing-oriented Celtics squad, he’ll probably be taking less shots and doing it from farther away, which could also yield less free throw attempts. Anticipated changes in this area would bring Porzingis’ shot diet from the field and charity stripe closer to what Turner did last year. There was about four field goals attempts, two free throws and around five points per game separating them this season. Based on my earlier projection for his role with the Celtics, it seems possible if not probable that this gap with Turner will close over the next year. 

If Porzingis loses ground in points due to decreased shot volume, then he would need to retain his league by increasing production in one or more of the following: treys, rebounds and blocks. These are proven strengths of the Latvian pivot and all things which will be needed in the Celtics’ diminutive frontcourt. Padding his lead in treys or rebounds could mitigate any scoring declines, while blocks remain one of the most impactful categories in fantasy basketball and any progress there is undeniably valuable. Expecting Porzingis to reach Turner’s lofty heights as a blocks producer is simply unreasonable but coupling a blocks boost with one other category may be sufficient for him to win another season’s judgment. Predicting that he will see boosts in boards or blocks might not be realistic alongside frontcourt studs like Al Horford and Robert Williams III in the post, who will themselves be competing to maintain their high values in these areas. Unlike last year with the Wizards, Porzingis will have more competition in the rotation and may see less opportunities to pad stats as he did on a pretty uncompetitive team.

In Turner’s case, there’s nothing to do but hope that he continues on the trajectory he set for himself this past season. Aside from a scoring boost, he remains more-or-less the same player he has been since entering the league, so it’s perfectly reasonable to expect him to sustain or exceed those marks as he enters his physical prime with very little difference in his playing conditions. With that in mind, we could probably attribute the extra points to his All-NBA point guard, but who cares where they come from as long as they’re there? Haliburton and Turner formed one of the most productive pick-and-roll duos in the league last season and there’s no reason to expect that their mutually beneficial results would worsen with experience. They were the top scorers on the team last season for a reason. 

So what happens if Turner catches up to Porzingis offensively? Perhaps more appropriately: what if Porzingis falls to Turner’s level of offensive production? That just makes the little things matter more. You know, the sort of things that star role players like Turner have made a career off of. He’s not going to carry the Pacers to victory very often if at all -and will certainly do so less often than his Latvian peer- but fantasy basketball doesn’t measure on-court value. While it typically rewards offensive studs like Porzingis, it also punishes them more notably for any statistical backslides than it does lower-volume players like Turner whose value is mostly rooted in efficiency and blocks. This seems to be the season that Turner may finally be able to soak up enough points or rebounds to surpass his peer in one or both areas. With nearly double the defensive value of Porzingis, drawing even or better in those areas likely results in a higher year-end rank for Turner.

If you think that Porzingis deserves the nod then I can hardly blame you. History is on your side and, as they say, it often repeats itself. There’s no doubt that the Celtics’ prized off-season acquisition will rank among the best fantasy players if healthy for the 2023-2023 season. Despite this, he remains the third-best of a newly-formed Big Three and will share the court with several other high-level players like Derrick White, Malcolm Brogdon, Horford and Williams. In contrast, Turner will return as the most-tenured Pacer coming off a career year and forming a strong inside-out duo with one of the league’s brightest young stars. With a contract extension in hand, there is less cause to doubt his future as a Pacer than in previous years and it seems likely that Turner will meet or exceed last year’s already-elite production. Will it be enough to finally catch up with Porzingis? For that matter, will Porzingis’ production stay consistent or fall back? I’m betting on a great season for both and am truly looking forward to seeing Porzingis find his way in Boston, so don’t take this judgment as an indictment. His on-court value remains high but I expect a bit of a statistical drop-off after transitioning away from his presumably higher-usage role with the Wizards. Think Chris Bosh after moving to Miami. On the flip side, a resurgent Pacers squad is anchored by a close statistical rival in Turner, who just registered a career year alongside Haliburton and a deep backcourt. History may repeat itself but things seem a little different now.

Verdict: Turner 

JR The Bossman (@JRTheBossman) was joined by Indiana Pacers Beat Writer for Fieldhouse Files, Scott Agness (@ScottAgness).

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2018-2019 Record                 Home Record               Road Record

        48-34                                     29-12                            19-22

2019-2020 Record                 Home Record               Road Record

         39-26                                     21-11                            18-15

Fun Facts for the season

-The Pacers are on track to make the playoffs for the fifth consecutive season but have not made it out of the first round since the 2014 playoffs when Paul George, David West, Roy Hibbert, George Hill and Lance Stephenson lost to the “Heatles” in the 2014 Eastern Conference Finals

-Pacers fans only got to see the formidable starting lineup of Malcolm Brogdon (17 missed games), Victor Oladipo (52 missed games), Domantas Sabonis (3 missed games), Myles Turner (10 missed games) and T.J. Warren (4 missed games) five times this season due to several injuries. However, all of these players are under contract for next season so fans will hopefully get to see how their starters perform when fully healthy.

-In his first season in an expanded role with the Pacers, Malcolm Brogdon got off to a torrid start as he produced 3rd/3rd round per game value until December 13 (22 games, November 15th game removed due to in-game injury that limited him to just nine minutes of action) while Brogdon’s value plummeted to 14th/17th round per-game value since December 14 (26 games) as the guard wore down as the season went along and saw his production slip in almost every statistical category

-Those who drafted Victor Oladipo and held on to him for the entire season were extremely disappointed as the All-Star guard appeared to round into form right when the league was suspended as his last game on March 10 was reminiscent of his 2018-19 performance when he was a 5th/5th round per-game value. In his first 12 games back from a knee injury, Oladipo was clearly still shaking off the rust as he was returning 21st/27th round per-game value.

-After three consecutive seasons in which Myles Turner ranked ahead of Domantas Sabonis in fantasy value in 8/9-cat formats, Sabonis changed the narrative in 2019-20 as he led the entire team in fantasy value.

-T.J. Warren had excellent field goal and free throw percentage numbers this season (.529 from the field and .812 from the line) and that can help explain how the forward was ranked four-to-five rounds higher in category leagues than he was in points formats

For a closer look at how the season has gone, be sure to check out our Season So Far series. The Pacers’ entry can be found right here.

Rosterable in 12-team 8/9-cat leagues (per-game value)

-Domantas Sabonis (4th round/4th round)

-Myles Turner (6th round/5th round)

-T.J. Warren (6th round/5th round)

-Malcolm Brogdon (6th round/7th round)

-Jeremy Lamb (10th round/8th round)

-Justin Holiday (12th round/10th round)

Showed flashes of fantasy value in 12-team 8/9-cat leagues (per-game value)

-Aaron Holiday (10th round/9th round from Dec 11 through Jan 10)

Rosterable in standard points leagues

(This is Yahoo’s standard scoring system, we’ll be using them as a reference for the rankings but obviously things will be different in your league if you use a custom scoring format or play on ESPN/CBS/Fantrax)

-Domantas Sabonis (3rd round)

-Malcolm Brogdon (5th round)

-Myles Turner (7th round)

-T.J. Warren (10th round)

-Jeremy Lamb (12th round)

Flashes of value in standard points leagues:

-Victor Oladipo (11th round since Feb 11)

Predicting standard league relevant players for 2020-21 season

-Victor Oladipo (all formats)

-Domantas Sabonis (all formats)

-Myles Turner (all formats)

-Malcolm Brogdon (all formats)

-T.J. Warren (8/9-cat)

-Jeremy Lamb (8/9-cat)

Potential for standard league value for 2020-21 season

-T.J. Warren (points leagues)

-Jeremy Lamb (points leagues)

-Justin Holiday (9-cat)

-Aaron Holiday (8/9-cat)

Upcoming Notable Free Agents

-Justin Holiday (unrestricted)

-T.J. McConnell (team option of $3.5M in 2020-21 including $1M guaranteed)

-JaKarr Sampson (unrestricted)

Key Additions

-N/A

Key Departures

-N/A

Upcoming Draft Picks

-2020 second round pick (protected 45-60, 31-44 to Brooklyn 2020-2022, if unconveyed becomes unprotected second round pick in 2023; one year after Brooklyn receives Indiana’s second round pick, Indiana will give it’s second round pick the following draft to Milwaukee)

-2021 first round pick

-2021 second round pick (protected 45-60, 31-44 to Brooklyn for 2021-2022, if unconveyed becomes unprotected second round pick in 2023; one year after Brooklyn receives Indiana’s second round pick, Indiana will give it’s second round pick the following draft to Milwaukee)

-2021 second round pick (via Milwaukee)

-2021 second round pick (via Utah)

-2022 first round pick

-2022 second round pick

-2022 second round pick (via Miami)

George, who was nearing free agency, had just re-established himself as a legitimate star after returning from his gruesome leg injury. Oladipo was fresh off a new four-year, $82 million contract he inked with the Thunder, so he had some years of control. Sabonis had club options remaining on his rookie deal so he was solidly in the fold and has since been extended by the Pacers. Both had exhibited some flashes of brilliance in their young careers to that point. Both were also unproven. Even with George’s impending free agency looming, Pritchard’s decision was undoubtedly a gamble.

This season, while once again sporting a middle-of-the-road record, Pritchard and the Pacers can almost assuredly say they received sufficient value from the swap, mostly in the form of Sabonis. Their future now largely rests on the shoulders of the lethal Lithuanian, especially if they don’t lock up Oladipo beyond next season, as well as strong contributions from their sizable long-term financial investments in both Myles Turner and Malcolm Brogdon.

T.J. Warren IS, In Fact, Dependable

If there was any doubt (which there was) that T.J. Warren, while on a roster that played meaningful games over the course of a full season, would be able sustain the solid numbers he’d posted over the last couple of years with the Suns, he has soundly put those questions to rest.

Pundits reasoned that Warren was only able to have such good numbers with the Suns because he played for a lowly squad that had not participated in many competitive basketball games during Warren’s five-year tenure in downtown Phoenix.

In 2017-18 (19.6 ppg, 5.1 rpg) and 2018-19 (18.0 ppg, 4.0 rpg), Warren was quite good for the Suns and, notably, made massive improvements with his 3-point shooting (he knocked down 77 treys in 43 games last season after only hitting 20 the season before in 65 games) while rehabbing for an injury that caused him to miss nearly half of the 2018-19 campaign. The Suns had rewarded his efforts with a four-year, $50 million contract extension in the summer of 2018.

The Pacers acquired Warren (still only 25 last offseason), along with the rights to the 32^nd overall pick in the draft, for cash considerations. It was an obvious salary dump for cap reasons by the Suns (three years, $35 million was left on Warren’s deal) but they hardly got breadcrumbs in return for a player they had extended just one year prior; a guy who was a proven contributor for multiple seasons for the team. We know, it doesn’t make much sense to us either.

While Warren predictably hasn’t been able to sustain the level of production from deep that he showed in his final season with the Suns (.428 in limited action), he has still shot a very respectable .375 from beyond the arc this year with the Pacers. The main takeaway from the Warren deal for the Pacers, however, is that Warren is simply an above-average basketball player.

That may seem overly simplified but, for years now, basketball fans and people around the league have seemingly tried to avoid admitting that Warren might just be a good player. So far this season Warren has averaged 18.7 points, 4.0 rebounds, 1.1 steals and 1.1 3-pointers per game in 32.5 minutes (61 games), numbers nearly identical to those he put up in his last two years with the Suns.

Warren has just about matched the per-game fantasy production he put together last season with the Suns when he finished ranked 44^th in categories formats (75^th in 2017-18 and 66^th in 2016-17). This year, he slots in right inside the top-60 in 8- and 9-cat leagues, once again outperforming his ADP in Yahoo (99) and ESPN (123). Remarkably steady. A good basketball player who can help a team in multiple capacities. Both would accurately describe Warren and the Pacers have to be delighted with their offseason acquisition/gift from the Suns.

Replacing Bojan Bogdanovic’s Production

The Pacers had big shoes to fill at the small forward position when incumbent starter Bojan Bogdanovic (18.0 PTS, 4.1 REB, 2.0 AST and 2.0 3PT in 31.8 minutes per game) departed in the offseason, signing a lucrative contract with the Jazz in free agency. And seeing that the Pacers had just committed four years and $85 million to Brogdon in a sign-and-trade with the Bucks, there was no easy answer as to how they were going to fill those shoes. It was most certainly going to come from a combination of different sources, likely from outside the organization.

After learning of the Brogdon deal, swingman Jeremy Lamb also decided to agree to sign on with the Pacers at the very reasonable price of $31.5 million over three seasons. That was a huge help. Lamb was coming off two very solid seasons with the Hornets and had proven to be a productive scorer and is versatile on the defensive end.

Lamb had been having a really nice year for the Pacers in 46 games (42 starts) to begin the season, ranking inside the top 100 in categories leagues. In late February, unfortunately, Lamb went down with a torn ACL that ended his season prematurely. Losing their starting wing was a big blow for a Pacers squad that was solidly in playoff contention. Fantasy owners were also none too pleased with the news, as Lamb had been deployable all season in every format (12.5 points, 4.3 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.2 threes, and 1.2 steals per game in 28 minutes).

Heading into the year, there was no guarantee any Pacer, beyond Turner, Sabonis, Brogdon and Oladipo (when he returned), would provide must-own fantasy value. Prior to the injury, Lamb provided that. In reality, the aforementioned Warren has been the real savior this season in Bogdanovic’s absence. He has picked up most, if not all, of the slack left behind by the Croatian small forward, with some help from Lamb until his injury.

In addition to Lamb, Pritchard signed two other options for production at small forward during the offseason. Doug McDermott ($22 million over three years) and Justin Holiday ($9 million for one year) were brought aboard in case Lamb, who would logically be given the first crack at starting, underwhelmed with his new team.

At this point, the Pacers are probably wishing those contracts were switched. Holiday has impressed in his role as a bench piece but he didn’t really push Lamb for minutes while Lamb was healthy. McDermott has been pretty much as advertised as far as his track record is concerned; that is, a 3-point specialist off the bench more deserving of a deal the size of Holiday’s rather than the one he was able to get with Indiana. He has done little besides make 3s (1.9 per contest on .445 shooting from deep) in 62 games off the bench.

The Pacers will now have to re-sign Holiday during the offseason if they want to bring him back, while McDermott is on the books for two more seasons.

The Victor Oladipo Situation

When the Pacers traded away George and acquired Sabonis and Oladipo, the primary piece was pretty obviously Oladipo. This was especially true given that his four-year contract extension, which he signed with the Thunder, would all occur in Indiana. Well, as can be the case for small market franchises building from the ground up, things took a little longer to come together than originally anticipated.

The first two seasons in the post-Paul George era went similarly. They ended with fifth place finishes in the Eastern Conference and identical records of 48-34, both times ending in first-round playoff exits (the Pacers have lost in the first round each of the last four seasons). In 2017-18, Oladipo was a beast, both for fantasy purposes and on the court. He finished that season, his first with the Pacers, ranked tenth among all players on a per game basis in categories leagues. Tenth.

On the floor, he was an All-Star and took home the Most Improved Player award (75 games, 23.1 points, 4.3 assists, 5.2 rebounds, 2.4 steals per game), leading the Pacers into the playoffs where they took the LeBron James-led Cavs to a full seven games in a first-round loss. There were plenty of reasons for optimism in Indiana.

The Pacers’ ascension was abruptly put on hold early in the 2019 calendar year when Oladipo went down with a long-term injury, rupturing his right quad. The timing could not have been worse for the Pacers and their budding star, both for the outlook the rest of the season and contractually. Just like that Oladipo’s second season with the Pacers was cut in half (he was notably named an All-Star again, despite the injury) and he wound up missing much of this season as well.

Now, with the coronavirus stoppage, the conclusion of the third year of Oladipo’s extension could have come a lot sooner than anticipated, especially if the NBA is unable to resume play. And if that’s the case, Oladipo will have checked-in to a measly 13 games in 2019-20 (and the past calendar year, for that matter), and the Pacers have only gone 9-9 in games since he made his season debut on against the Bulls on January 29. Seeing that next season will be his last before free agency, Oladipo’s contract extension with Indiana will not be culminating the way the team envisioned it would.

Small market franchises in almost any American professional sport are in a difficult position if they allow their stars to enter the final year of a contract without an extension, whether you think it’s fair or not. Teams in these situations then have to decide whether to let them walk in free agency or trade their superstars before the end of their deals in order to net some sort value from losing the player. In what probably seems like the snap of a finger, Pritchard has found himself facing that exact predicament with Oladipo.

There simply has not been enough time, games played, or opportunities for Oladipo to rebuild his play in a manner that would justify a massive contract extension or give the Pacers the ability find a suitable trade partner willing to take the risk for a one-year rental. Recent reports have indicated that, after trying to work out an extension before the season (while Oladipo was injured, no less), negotiations have since stopped. Oladipo seems likely to want to try to rebuild some of his value in 2020-2021 and then test the open market. Yikes, Pacers fans.

Domantas the Destroyer

After their hard-fought 2018 playoff exit, the Pacers were in an exciting position. They had drawn an unlucky matchup in the Cavs, Oladipo had had a monster season, and both of their young big-men, Sabonis and Myles Turner, were displaying promising ability. Sabonis looked like he would end up being better than anticipated at the time he was dealt from the Thunder and Turner had just finished up a second consecutive productive season.

Turner seemed to be the more intriguing of the two and he was a steady fantasy contributor, ranking 24^th in 2016-17 and 55^th in 2017-18 on a per game basis. The Pacers rewarded him with a four-year rookie contract extension just before the next season kicked off, guaranteeing Turner $72 million and paying him up to $80 million with incentives.

Sabonis had taken a step forward in his first season with the Pacers, averaging 11.6 points and 7.7 boards in 24.5 minutes in 74 contests in 2017-18. But even still, he was viewed as a likely rotational player who could potentially be a decent starter for someone down the road. Sabonis, still only 22 at the time, took another step forward last season by showing increased aggressiveness, nearly averaging a double-double (14.1 points, 9.4 boards) but he started fewer games than he had the previous season. Sabonis’ ceiling seemed like it might be a little bit higher than the Pacers had expected, but not much.

This season Sabonis put it all together. Heading into the year, the Pacers were coming off being swept out of the first round of the 2019 playoffs and were in dire need of someone besides Turner to provide consistency with Oladipo potentially out of action until sometime midseason. They also wanted to empower Sabonis, choosing to let dependable starter Thad Young leave as a free agent to let their young duo start. Sabonis evidently heard the cry for help.

Named an All-Star for his efforts, Sabonis has been one of the league’s best in 2019-20 as of the league stoppage in March due to the pandemic. Thus far in 34.8 minutes per game, Sabonis is averaging 18.5 points, 12.4 rebounds and has upped his assists all the way to 5.0 per game (2.9 last season). He looks like a piece to build around and the Pacers realized that, wasting no time by locking up Sabonis to a four-year rookie extension that could be worth up to $85 million with incentives when all is said and done.

Fantasy GMs who drafted Sabonis anywhere near his ADP (74 Yahoo, 66 ESPN) in drafts last fall have to be thoroughly pleased with what they’ve received from him. Beyond just his production, Sabonis has shown massive strides in the leadership department and solid chemistry with the variety of guards the Pacers have deployed this season after they added an influx of backcourt options in the offseason.

The Potential of the Holiday Brothers

While Justin Holiday, the elder of the Brothers Holiday, is only signed to a one-year pact that will expire after this season (which, as you know, could very well already be over), he has been reliable and, more importantly, healthy all season long. He ranks in at 110 in 8- and 9-cat leagues, averaging modest yet productive numbers (8.4 points, 3.2 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.2 steals and 1.9 threes per game) while maintaining his effectiveness on the defensive perimeter. The Pacers had a hole to fill at the forward spot last offseason and not much money to do it with and Justin has helped in an important way. The Pacers will likely try to re-sign him in some capacity after the season, depending on how the market takes shape.

Aaron Holiday, a point guard and Justin’s younger brother, has done a lot of good things in a reserve point guard role during his second season in the league. At first glance, Aaron’s raw numbers make it seem as though he may not have improved much from his rookie season. However, given the fluidity, depth and new faces at the point guard position for the Pacers this season, he has done a solid job playing meaningful minutes off the bench behind Brogdon. T.J. McConnell, who also gets minutes at point guard with the backups, got a two-year deal in the offseason and has carved out a little role for himself, but obviously nobody expects him (or Holiday) to suddenly overtake Brogdon as the starter.

The Pacers, who have a whopping eleven players from their current roster on the books for next year, could be running it back with a very similar group of guys whenever the 2020-2021 (only 2021?) season begins. Pritchard’s three noteworthy offseason additions (Brogdon, Warren, and Lamb), McDermott, and the extensions of Sabonis and Turner fill a large portion of their cap space for the next couple of seasons. Oh and, it shouldn’t go unstated, the Pacers will still somehow be paying Monta Ellis about $2.25 million next season.

Even sitting comfortably in playoff position as the standings look right now (yep, you guessed it, fifth place), the Pacers seem like they’re definitely going to need another piece to make any sort of championship push in the near future – a feat they likely can’t pull off given their current salary commitments…and the fact that they are the Pacers; convincing high-profile free agents to move to Indiana is not easy.

Maybe it’s circumstances like Monta Ellis that leave the Pacers franchise steeped in good-but-not-great. Maybe it’s their uncanny ability, no matter the roster, to avoid drama at all costs, thus gaining next to no air time, season after season. Maybe it’s the state of Indiana. Who knows? If the regular season is not resumed, they will finish in fifth place in the East. For the third consecutive season. They are, astoundingly, consistently okay. All Pacers fans can hope for is more enormous strides from Sabonis, more cap space, and maybe a surprising hit on draft pick or two.

The team’s core of Victor Oladipo and Myles Turner remains the same, but much of the supporting cast has changed in the last few months.

Sophomore point guard Aaron Holiday, fresh off a season in which he averaged 12.9 minutes across 50 games, will assume backup duties. It will mean consequential minutes on a team that’s eyeing deep playoff runs in the coming years and make for a mighty test – not just for Holiday, but for the Pacers’ development philosophy as well.

Two seasons ago, Indiana looked ready to embark on a long rebuild after trading Paul George to the Thunder for two intriguing young players who had shown flashes of promise, but ultimately still had questions to answer. The Pacers would be younger, but still lacked the first-year, high-lottery sort of talent that steps right into a major role.

Oladipo’s breakout was enough to lurch the team forward into the playoff field and the organization remained steadfast in its cautious handling of its youngest players. Since Turner was selected in 2015, the Pacers’ rookies have spent most of their first years soaking up the action from the best seats in the house.

Given the list of recent draftees, it’s not exactly surprising that the team felt it prudent to give them more seasoning rather than toss them right into the fire. Partly a result of circumstance, with the Pacers looking strong even after Oladipo tore a quad tendon last season, and partly a result of organizational practice, Holiday followed a similar plan despite a loftier pedigree.

Entering the draft, Holiday’s stock was up for debate. Some prognosticators viewed him as a long-term answer at point guard that could be drafted in the early teens while others had him going in the second round and carving out a role as a quality backup.

No matter the projection, Holiday was universally lauded for his ability to penetrate on offense and his willingness to battle any opponent on the defensive end. His shooting and scoring abilities also won rave reviews, and despite the prospect of Holiday becoming a major contributor, the Pacers stuck with their typical plan. Holiday, like the team’s other recent rookies, would spend a lot of time observing in his first campaign.

While his selection was cause for some long-term excitement, Holiday was stuck behind a pair of quality guards on a strong team in Darren Collison and Cory Joseph. While he impressed in his opportunities, there were limited chances for Holiday to carve out a larger role – likely by design. Still, even given the team’s depth, it felt like a bit much, especially for a player with Holiday’s expected upside.

In his rookie class, Holiday ranked 21^st in minutes per game among first-round picks. When you eliminate players that missed significant time due to injury, only Jacob Evans, Robert Williams, Mo Wagner, Anfernee Simons and Grayson Allen played less than Holiday – and two of those guys were drafted with the expectation of a quasi-redshirt season.

Expand that to include the 2017 and 2016 draft classes, and only the following first-round players saw less time than Holiday in their rookie years:

2017: Tyler Lydon, Caleb Swanigan, Justin Patton (only four games but multiple foot surgeries), D.J. Wilson, Terrance Ferguson, T.J. Leaf, Derrick White

2016: Wade Baldwin, Jakob Poeltl, Thon Maker, Malachi Richardson, Damian Jones, Dejounte Murray, Henry Ellenson, Guerschon Yabusele, Furkan Korkmaz, Ante Zizic, Brice Johnson

Among that group, there aren’t many players with serious shots at big roles in the near future, and less than a handful of players who look to be established as serious contributors. In short, the good players were typically given at least the chance to make an impact right away.

It should be repeated that the Pacers simply haven’t drafted any rookies that have been so good as to demand playing time since Turner in 2015. With all due respect to Georges Niang, Joe Young, T.J. Leaf, Ike Anigbogu and Alize Johnson, none entered the league as a threat to crack the rotation in year one. Theoretically, Holiday was in a different class – he’s expected to be the backup point guard while the rest of that group is either already out of the league or set to work in deep reserve duty, after all.

Development isn’t one-size-fits-all, and not every player will benefit from simply being on the court. The Pacers aren’t the sort of anarchistic environment that allows bad habits to set deep roots in free-flowing, garbage-time minutes, but there was just slightly too much at stake to give Holiday substantial playing time and ask for quality play from the jump.

Still, Oladipo’s injury, plus Collison and Joseph’s impending free agency, gave the Pacers a perfect opportunity to pull the chute and see just how NBA-ready Holiday was down the stretch. Indiana was comfortably in a playoff spot and wasn’t reasonably expected to win more than a single round without their star. They chose to stick with the plan, forgoing serious reps for a presumed core piece in the process.

That’s not to say that Holiday is ‘too good’ for that treatment. It was thought that he was above that route, certainly, but the Pacers clearly felt that Holiday would benefit from a less-intense rookie season.

Now, with expectations high following a year where Indiana looked borderline excellent when Oladipo was healthy, Holiday will be asked to step up to the plate and deliver, with no cushion in the standings for the team to fall back on in case it doesn’t go smoothly. Although Indiana added a pair of quality playmakers in Malcolm Brogdon and T.J. McConnell, the sophomore will be counted on to contribute in a meaningful role.

The Pacers are past their short window of patience. The urgency has been ratcheted up, as evidenced by the team’s aggressive decisions in free agency and the likelihood that first-round pick Goga Bitadze starts the year in the rotation. Indiana got good far faster than anticipated and it’s time for the team’s depth to rise to the occasion, even if they haven’t been tested rigorously yet.

If Holiday, and the complementary pieces in general, struggle to work out the kinks, then Oladipo’s eventual return will come as a major relief. If the Pacers’ gambit pays off and Holiday’s behind-the-scenes development turns into on-court production, that same return could serve as rocket fuel.

Either way, in Holiday, we’re about to see the fruits of Indiana’s development plan.

Fun times are ahead, and this exhibition season gives folks a glimpse at drawing meaningful conclusions – the UDFA who scores 25 points might not end up playing outside of garbage time but fans will be able to sink their teeth into rotations, lineups and find out who was lying about reworking their jump shot in the summer.

The Eastern Conference especially finds itself in a state of flux. LeBron James’ departure swung the door wide open, with Masai Ujiri’s Raptors taking some bold steps to be the first team through. Now that Kawhi Leonard is gone, the Celtics’ presumed title core has been rejiggered and the Sixers’ Big 4 approach has been altered, it’s shaping up like a free-for-all with a widening group of potential contenders.

We’ll run through the West later in the week, but for now here are some Eastern Conference stories to watch out for in the preseason.

Atlanta Hawks

How NBA-ready is Bruno Fernando?

The Hawks look to have some long-term answers at four of the five spots on the floor, with the lone exception coming at center. Alex Len showed up as a vastly improved shooter last season and will enter this year as the starter, but that’s a stopgap solution for a team hoping to ride its young core to contention in the near-ish future.

Enter Bruno Fernando, who should immediately fit in as a rim-runner and rebounder. His pivotal role in Maryland’s offense should serve him well even if he won’t be tasked with much playmaking this season, and the question is whether Fernando’s limited offensive game can hold up in extended minutes. Defensively he’ll be able to provide rim protection, but lateral quickness could be an issue and teams will surely target him in space.

If Fernando looks the part of a ready-made NBA center, he could quickly flip the split of playing time so the Hawks can get a better look at how their long-term pieces fit together. Don’t expect the Hawks to force the issue, but they would undoubtedly be happy if Fernando developed quickly.

Boston Celtics

Offense or defense at center?

When the Celtics signed Enes Kanter, it was assumed that he would slot right in as the team’s starter, replacing Aron Baynes and Al Horford. While Kanter is coming off a solid playoff run after rotting away on the bench in New York, his game does come with extensive defensive deficiencies. Depending on how Brad Stevens wants his team to look, it’s possible that we see one of the other candidates assert themselves as a viable option.

Robert Williams, who started the team’s first preseason contest, is the likely frontrunner of the non-Kanter field. While he fills an extremely narrow lane on offense, he would give the Celtics a potentially elite rim protector and offers the most upside of anyone in the group. Should Stevens opt for a more intimidating defensive group, Williams is the easy call.

There’s also the notion that Kanter can be used as more of a matchup type, drawing the starts against burly centers while coming off the bench to dominate weaker opponents in other games. It’s not dissimilar to how the Raptors used Jonas Valanciunas or how the Bucks used to use Greg Monroe.

Perhaps Daniel Theis, whose versatile game can serve as a happy medium, will stand out. He’ll require fewer offensive touches than Kanter and offers the best spacing of all the options. Newcomer Vincent Poirier will also be competing for time. The Celtics lost a ton of production at the center spot this summer and Stevens now has the chance to remold the team with a distinct new identity. Which player he chooses, assuming nobody asserts themselves entirely as a result of their play, should be revealing.

Brooklyn Nets

Kenny Atkinson’s ‘good problem’ in the backcourt

The Nets have reached the mountaintop, or at least gone as high as you can without having played any games yet. They bottomed out but rebuilt the team in such a way that they could attract two superstar talents. Brooklyn has collected a number of quality players to complement its big pieces, and Kenny Atkinson’s deep rotations have helped develop a lot of players in meaningful situations.

The Nets have received quality play from D’Angelo Russell, Spencer Dinwiddie, Joe Harris and Caris LeVert, among others, over the last few seasons. While the team gets credit for helping these players blossom, they’ve all been aided by some lucky breaks. Dinwiddie first broke onto the scene when Jeremy Lin got hurt and became a mainstay when Russell went down in 2017-18. Russell really broke out last season after LeVert went down, and LeVert returned to the lineup while Dinwiddie was sidelined.

While injuries will inevitably strike, Atkinson’s juggling task will only get tougher as each player continues to grow. With four starting-caliber guards, and the presence of Taurean Prince and Rodions Kurucs (and eventually Kevin Durant) soaking up minutes at small forward, the Nets will need to strike a careful balance to make sure everyone gets fed. Brooklyn’s rotation is always busy but we’ll be keeping a close eye on the playing time throughout the preseason.

Charlotte Hornets

Can Willy Hernangomez get it together?

The offensively gifted 25-year-old seems to be running out of chances. The Knicks punted him from the rotation despite a solid rookie campaign, and Hernangomez couldn’t gain any traction after being traded to Charlotte. The team couldn’t afford to deal with his shortcomings last season while they were trying to make the playoffs and convince Kemba Walker to stick around, but there’s really no excuse for Hernangomez to be an occasional DNP-CD this season.

The defense will always be problematic, but the setup is perfect for the Hornets to just grin and bear it. If Hernangomez can’t establish himself as the clear backup to the oft-injured Cody Zeller by beating out the oft-injured Bismack Biyombo, it might just be the final straw. There’s enough offensive skill to keep a rebuilding team interested, but eventually the rubber has to hit the road.

Chicago Bulls

The Kris Dunn dilemma

Dunn was given the starting nod for Chicago’s preseason opener but the team’s actions point to a different long-term vision. They can pump up Tomas Satoransky and Shaq Harrison as guys who can play 1-3 as much as they’d like, but to play them anywhere other than point guard is a major disservice to both them and the team.

That said, Dunn could very well play his way back into the mix with a strong preseason. He’ll have limited opportunities with the Bulls mixing and matching their lineups to get a good look at all four PGs on the roster but it’s not out of the question that he outplays his counterparts. A trade still seems likely at some point but stranger things have happened and we’re likely to see a highly motivated version of Dunn, who went from potential franchise guard to potential DNP-CD in a hurry.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Garland & Sexton

The Cavs took a bit of a risk in drafting Darius Garland fifth overall after he was felled for the season by a torn meniscus in November. Doubly so considering they just took a point guard in the lottery, grabbing Collin Sexton last summer. How these two coexist will determine a lot about Cleveland’s future, and with both more inclined to be scorers we’ll be watching closely to see how things shake out.

Sexton struggled mightily with efficiency last season before a strong burst at the finish, and he still needs some work in terms of shot selection. Garland offers better range and is more of a dynamic scorer in general, but neither really fits a traditional playmaking mold. It can certainly work with the two splitting that load, but how they find a groove playing side by side is going to be the story of the preseason for the Cavs. Keep a close eye on how both players manage without the ball in their hands.

Detroit Pistons

Christian Wood’s big break?

It’s been two seasons of Christian Wood throttling inferior competition, and even a big finish with the Pelicans couldn’t get him a guaranteed spot. It looks as though he’ll be competing with Joe Johnson for the final spot on Detroit’s roster. It’s an interesting battle in that the two competitors provide entirely different things, so Dwane Casey may already have a good idea of who the frontrunner is even if there’s nothing being said publicly.

There’s some dynamic talent at play, and Wood would seem to offer a bit more all-around upside than Thon Maker or Markieff Morris. If the Pistons, who are hoping to actually make noise in the playoffs, and Casey, who has historically had a hard time deviating from plans until his hand is forced, want the safe route, then Wood is going to be facing an uphill battle.

Indiana Pacers

Myles Turner’s shooting

The Pacers are going a little old school with their frontcourt combo of Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis. Most teams are riding with better shooting out of the power forward slots, but Turner and Sabonis are clearly Indiana’s two most talented big men and it’s well worth it to figure out how the pairing functions, and how they can thrive together long-term. There’s pretty clear evidence that Sabonis works best in the paint, so most of the adjusting figures to fall to Turner.

He’ll need to spend more time outside the arc, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him cutting in and out of the paint quickly to give Sabonis room to operate on offense. Turner is a .363 career deep shooter with notable progress in each year of his career, culminating in last season’s .388 mark. Expect him to easily eclipse last year’s career-high 2.6 3-point attempts per game and look out for where those attempts are coming – Turner shot .625 from the corners last season but only took 16 attempts. He took 179 of his threes above the break, hitting at a .369 clip.

Miami Heat

Justise Winslow’s versatility, or lack thereof

Winslow entered the league as a do-it-all prospect who could switch across multiple positions, which sort of left him in no man’s land on a Miami roster that had a few similar players. Eventually, the question has to be asked: if you play multiple positions but never truly excel at any of them, are you really versatile after all?

Luckily, Winslow seemed to find his calling as the fill-in point guard when Goran Dragic was injured last season. It’s a position that he’s been vocal about playing going forward, except the Heat have been committed to Dragic as their PG for as long as he’s on the roster. That might be a little bit of lip service considering they tried to trade him this summer, but it’s unlikely that The Dragon would be shuttled aside right away. How those two split the role is going to have a big say in Miami’s results this year, and with expectations cranked up as a result of the Jimmy Butler acquisition, the Heat may face a tough decision.

Winslow has more of a future in Miami than the 33-year-old Dragic. How much are the Heat willing to sacrifice his development at a position where he finally looks comfortable?

Milwaukee Bucks

Who fills the void in Malcolm Brogdon’s absence?

The Bucks predictably found success by stuffing the roster with shooters that can play off of Giannis Antetokounmpo’s elite penetration game. Though they’re still clearly one of the top teams in the East, Milwaukee may struggle to replace Malcolm Brogdon – the team’s fourth-leading assist man and a .408 career 3-point shooter.

Wesley Matthews and Kyle Korver have been brought in but neither can fill the playmaking shoes, and the Bucks’ second units could have trouble with scoring without a clear leader and efficient perimeter scorer who can create his own shot. Perhaps Khris Middleton, who was frustrated by his new role at times last season, is asked to handle a lot of that load.

New York Knicks

Frank Ntilikina

The Knicks’ brass likes to talk a lot. It’s David Fizdale who said that Lance Thomas could be New York’s version of Draymond Green, after all, so you can excuse anyone who chooses to take any audio from MSG with a big grain of salt. Allegedly, the Knicks will have a competition for the point guard spot this season. Allegedly, Frank Ntilikina is part of it.

That’s pretty inconsistent with all the rumors surrounding Ntilikina’s future with the organization, but perhaps New York will bank on a strong World Cup performance creating enough confidence to get Frankie Smokes rolling out of the gates. Odds are that Ntilikina’s NBA career will be best-served by a move to another organization – the Knicks haven’t exercised their option on him yet, after all – but he just might be able to salvage things. New York was very quick to give up on a raw player with obvious defensive merit, and while that’s on brand for the Knicks, some quick proof of improvement could change their tune.

Orlando Magic

Al-Farouq Aminu’s role

It was a bit curious that the Magic signed Al-Farouq Aminu this summer when they have Aaron Gordon and Jonathan Isaac already in the fold, but it’s a move that made more sense after some marinating.

The Magic became a stifling defensive team last season, and Aminu has experience taking on the tough matchups in Portland. Aminu will also provide a little bit of a boost to a team that shot .321 from deep last year and can also chip in on the glass. He’ll help bolster a bench unit that wavered in terms of impact (aside from Terrence Ross) last season and can be elevated into a larger role if need be. Simply put, he’s the sort of defender and complementary contributor that Steve Clifford is likely to love.

His signing is a win-now move from a team that’s really buying into last year’s big step forward, and it’s going to be interesting to see if his steady play can take minutes from either Gordon or Isaac.

Philadelphia 76ers

Josh Richardson’s offensive fit

Richardson is a nice get for Philadelphia, who acquired an ascendant two-way guard in exchange for sending Jimmy Butler to Miami. Over the course of his first four seasons with the Heat, Richardson rose through the pecking order and set a career-high in usage in each campaign. That figures to change in Philly, where he could be look at as the low man on the totem pole.

Although Richardson’s game and flighty efficiency might actually shine with a more limited set of responsibilities, it will be an adjustment for a player who has been on a linear progression as a primary offensive weapon. He’ll be counted on to stretch the floor and will be a major part of the elite defense that the Sixers have assembled (on paper), but we may be able to learn a bit about the team’s offensive plans for Richardson in the preseason. Teams with lots of overhaul tend to deploy their real rotation guys the most in the exhibition season so the Sixers might provide some insightful games.

Toronto Raptors

The big lineup

The Raptors have a ton of changes to work through given their high-profile departures, but despite the huge vacancies at the two and three spots it’ll be how they deploy their three best forwards that merits watching. The combination of Marc Gasol, Serge Ibaka and Pascal Siakam played 37 minutes together in the playoffs – after playing zero minutes in the regular season – to a 97.1 ORTG and a 101.5 DRTG, though the added size was crucial in keeping the Sixers off the glass in the postseason.

It would be wise for the Raptors to give Siakam as many minutes as possible at different positions to find the limits of his versatility and although Ibaka found great success as a full-time center, the Raptors are likely short on the shooting that can allow him to really shine as a dump-off or mid-range option on offense. Gasol’s game is malleable enough to fit with most players, especially if a climb in the pecking order eliminates the passivity that defined his worst playoff performances.

This is a team that will lean heavily on its defense this season. Getting their smartest defender, their best rim protector and most athletic player on the court at the same time is going to fit that vibe. At the very least it’s a lineup worth exploring further.

Washington Wizards

Davis Bertans, besides the shooting

It’s already established that Bertans is one of the league’s elite sharpshooters among big men. The Marcus Morris free agency flip-flop took Bertans from a great basketball program in San Antonio, but it sent him to a fantastic opportunity in Washington. It looks as though he’ll enter the season as a starter, and the big question is how well the rest of his game can hold up.

Although Bertans has developed nicely, it’s fair to say that there was a limit on his ceiling with the Spurs. The team was too good to tolerate potential growing pains, and they’ve had capable forwards in place for as long as he was on the roster. Washington isn’t expected to make much noise this season and it’s an environment where Bertans should be tested. The team will be able to let him play through mistakes and carry a heavier burden than he would’ve with the Spurs.

Though his bread-and-butter skill will keep Bertans in the league for a while, he’ll be afforded the chance to shed his reputation as a one-dimensional player. If he looks like a capable defender in the preseason, expect the expectations and excitement to quietly rachet up.