Orlando Magic – SportsEthos https://sportsethos.com Worldwide Sports Coverage • Fantasy • DFS • Gaming Wed, 04 Oct 2023 19:54:36 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.3.1 https://sportsethos.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/cropped-android-chrome-512x512-1-32x32.png Orlando Magic – SportsEthos https://sportsethos.com 32 32 Fantasy Faceoff: Franz Wagner vs. Scottie Barnes https://sportsethos.com/articles/nba-teams/toronto-raptors/fantasy-faceoff-franz-wagner-vs-scottie-barnes/ https://sportsethos.com/articles/nba-teams/toronto-raptors/fantasy-faceoff-franz-wagner-vs-scottie-barnes/#respond Wed, 04 Oct 2023 19:54:36 +0000 https://sportsethos.com/?p=413658 This series has typically focused on older, more established players in order to give greater insight into their fantasy potential. It’s time for a change and one of the head-to-head debates I have been most invested in over the past few years has been Franz Wagner versus Scottie Barnes. Though Barnes’ star shone brighter initially -he was the 2021-2022 Rookie of the Year- it became increasingly common to see Magic fans and the wider NBA fanbase making the case for the German swingman as Barnes failed to notably progress in his sophomore year while Wagner certainly did. So let’s dig into this, shall we? Did Barnes really tread water in his second year and how much ground, if any, did he lose to Wagner in the process? There’s no way around this issue so let’s get it out of the way early: any franchise should consider themselves lucky to have either player but one has to win by the end. If your guy doesn’t make the cut it won’t be because I don’t place a high value on what he does or what he could become, but you’re probably only getting a shot at one or the other on draft day so you might as well start weighing the pros and cons along with me. Let’s get into it.

Last Faceoff: Damian Lillard vs. James Harden

Fantasy Faceoff!

Franz Wagner vs. Scottie Barnes

 

PAST: Who was the better fantasy player?

2021-2022 Statistics

Wagner

15.2 PPG, 1.2 3PT, 4.5 RPG, 2.9 APG, 0.9 SPG, 0.4 BPG, 1.5 TO, .468 FG%, .863 FT%

79 games, 1197 points, 96 3-pointers, 356 rebounds, 231 assists, 69 steals, 33 blocks, 119 turnovers, 456-of-975 field goals, 189-of-219 free throws

Barnes

15.3 PPG, 0.8 3PT, 7.5 RPG, 3.5 APG, 1.1 SPG, 0.7 BPG, 1.9 TO, .492 FG%, .735 FT%

74 games, 1134 points, 58 3-pointers, 557 rebounds, 256 assists, 80 steals, 55 blocks, 136 turnovers, 459-of-932 field goals, 158-of-215 free throws

Spoiler alert: Rookie of the Year generally equates to high fantasy value. Such was the case for Scottie Barnes in his debut season as he immediately became a valued contributor for the Raptors. However, let’s not forget that Wagner was an Opening Night starter in Orlando as well and immediately stood out among that group. The key difference between the two players? One experienced a lot more winning in their early career. Barnes and the Raptors more than doubled the Magic’s win total in the 2021-2022 season, which gave the 6’9” forward an edge with the media. Despite his obvious value to the present and future of the team, the recent champion Raptors arguably needed Barnes less than the Magic needed Wagner behind their solid core of two-way players like Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam.

It’s hard to earn looks in an established offense with veterans that are used to a steady shot diet but that’s exactly what Barnes did from the start. Wagner averaged almost exactly the same number of shots per game but did so on the team that would finish last in Offensive Rating by the end of the season. It follows that Barnes would make a higher percentage of his looks as the Raptors were generally able to create better opportunities for him to score. Once again, Wagner did actually keep almost exact pace with his peer in the scoring department. He actually held an advantage there with more 3-pointers and a significantly higher free-throw percentage on -surprise, surprise- identical volume. It was only once we started to widen the scope that it became clear where the pair really separated. Barnes won the assist battle by a narrow but not insignificant margin while holding the rebounds lead by a wide margin at around three more boards per game. On defense, it was another clean sweep, with Barnes’ 1.1 steals and 0.7 blocks per game representing above-average marks and also eclipsing Wagner by fair margins. By the end of the year the voters took note of Barnes’ more universal value and named him the Rookie of the Year. It follows that he gets the nod here. After all, he matched Wagner’s strengths and outperformed him in so many other areas. What else could I say?

Verdict: Barnes

 

PRESENT: Who is the better fantasy player?

2022-2023 Statistics

Wagner: 

18.6 PPG, 1.6 3PT, 4.1 RPG, 3.5 APG, 1.0 SPG, 0.2 BPG, 2.1 TO, .485 FG%, .842 FT%

80 games, 1485 points, 130 3-pointers, 329 rebounds, 283 assists, 77 steals, 17 blocks, 167 turnovers, 542-of-1118 field goals, 271-of-322 free throws

Barnes

15.3 PPG, 0.8 3PT, 6.6 RPG, 4.8 APG, 1.1 SPG, 0.8 BPG, 2.0 TO, .456 FG%, .772 FT%

77 games, 1179 points, 63 3-pointers, 512 rebounds, 371 assists, 83 steals, 61 blocks, 154 turnovers, 463-of-1016 field goals, 190-of-246 free throws

It was a whole new ball game in the respective sophomore seasons of Franz Wagner and Scottie Barnes. You may have read or heard that Barnes didn’t progress in his second year, which isn’t entirely true and even if true would still represent a valuable NBA player. There’s a difference between a disappointing season and a bad one. However, that was never an issue with Wagner. In fact, it was quite the opposite. The German wing surged forward with a three-point boost in his scoring average along with improved averages in treys, assists, steals and field goal percentage. It became clear that he was going to be pivotal to the Magic’s future as they build around 2022-2023 Rookie of the Year Paolo Banchero. This was and is true of Barnes with the Raptors but the Florida State product fell back in boards and field goal percentage while only showing improvement as a free throw shooter and playmaker with a 1.3 assist per game boost over last season. Otherwise, it was just more of the same production that earned him some pretty nifty hardware only a season earlier. Unfortunately, it was part of a Raptors season that was only noteworthy for how disappointing it was and that affected the narratives of individual players on the team.

Wagner definitely made a leap while Barnes was more or less treading water in the 2022-2023 season but what was the difference between them? Well, there are now clear leads for Wagner in several categories, as he proved to be a much better scorer, 3-point shooter and generally more efficient player than Barnes. In a standard four-game week, Wagner averaged about 13 more points and three more treys than Barnes. However, he remained notably worse in high-impact areas like rebounds, assists, and blocks. A tie is a tie but it’s notable that Wagner has basically caught up to Barnes in steals per game if only for the jump forward that it represents for him. If Barnes’s 0.1 steals per game lead represents a victory for him in that category then so too does his 0.1 turnovers per game advantage, but it’s not important enough to award him a win when the real impact of those slight advantages pales in comparison to the categories that Wagner wins. For me, it’s a 4-3 win for Wagner who had clear wins in points, treys, field goal percentage and free throw percentage with two draws in steals and turnovers, but don’t sleep on Barnes for what could be considered a split decision loss. 

Verdict: Wagner

 

FUTURE: Who will be the better fantasy player in 2023-2024?

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Fantasy Snapshot: Orlando Magic https://sportsethos.com/articles/hoop-ball-fantasy-basketball-features/fantasy-snapshot-orlando-magic/ https://sportsethos.com/articles/hoop-ball-fantasy-basketball-features/fantasy-snapshot-orlando-magic/#respond Wed, 29 Apr 2020 16:42:24 +0000 https://sportsethos.com/?p=297998 2019-2020 Orlando Magic Season Recap to date

2018-2019 Record                 Home Record               Road Record

        42-40                                     25-16                            17-24

2019-2020 Record                 Home Record               Road Record

         30-35                                     16-15                            14-20

Fun Facts for the season

-The Magic have had trouble retaining their young talent dating back to 2013 as they have traded away Tobias Harris (traded to Pistons in 2016 for Ersan Ilyasova and Brandon Jennings), Maurice Harkless (traded to Blazers in 2015 for a second round pick), Dewayne Dedmon (did not re-sign with team after 2013-14), Victor Oladipo (traded with Ersan Ilyasova and Domantas Sabonis to Thunder in 2016 for Serge Ibaka) and Elfird Payton (traded to Suns in 2018 for a second round pick). The only assets the Magic have in return for all that talent are Terrence Ross and Markelle Fultz.

-Prior to suffering a season-ending knee injury that has sidelined him for the last 23 contests, Jonathan Isaac became one of the biggest risers in fantasy season over season as he led the team with 3rd/2nd round per-game value. In contrast, Isaac’s prior career-high in fantasy value came last season when he produced 11th/9th round per-game value.

-Despite achieving career-highs in virtually every statistical category, Markelle Fultz was still on the edge of standard league value as he produced 11th/14th round per-game value three seasons after being picked first overall in the 2017 draft

-Even though he doesn’t have the flashiest name in basketball circles, Nikola Vučević has maintained per-game value inside the top-35 for the last three seasons in 8/9-cat leagues and has returned 3rd/2nd round per-game value so far this season

-The Magic will have to decide in the next two seasons whether or not they would like to keep Mo Bamba as their center of the future after drafting him sixth overall in the 2018 draft as they also have Nikola Vučević signed for the next three years for a total of $72M

-Aaron Gordon saw his value increase dramatically over the last 16 games of the season as he was able to produce 4th/3rd round per-game value compared with 15th/16th round per-game value in the first 42 games of the campaign. There were several reasons to explain this increase in value but the largest can be attributed to Gordon’s increased role as a facilitator within the offense as he saw his assists climb from 2.9 in the first 42 games to a career-high 5.9 in the last 16 contests.

For a closer look at how the season has gone, be sure to check out our Season So Far series. The Magic entry can be found right here.

Rosterable in 12-team 8/9-cat leagues (per-game value)

-Jonathan Isaac (3rd round/2nd round)

-Nikola Vučević (3rd round/2nd round)

-Evan Fournier (6th round/6th round)

-Aaron Gordon (10th round/11th round)

-Markelle Fultz (11th round/14th round)

-Terrence Ross (11th round/9th round)

Showed flashes of fantasy value in 12-team 8/9-cat leagues (per-game value)

-Michael Carter-Williams (10th round/10th round since Feb 1)

-D.J. Augustin (8th round/8th round from Dec 3 through Jan 1)

Rosterable in standard points leagues

(This is Yahoo’s standard scoring system, we’ll be using them as a reference for the rankings but obviously things will be different in your league if you use a custom scoring format or play on ESPN/CBS/Fantrax)

-Nikola Vučević (2nd round)

-Jonathan Isaac (7th round)

-Aaron Gordon (7th round)

-Evan Fournier (8th round)

-Terrence Ross (11th round)

Flashes of value in standard points leagues:

-Markelle Fultz (9th round since Feb 11)

Predicting standard league relevant players for 2020-21 season

-Nikola Vučević (all formats)

-Jonathan Isaac (all formats)

-Aaron Gordon (all formats)

-Evan Fournier (all formats)

Potential for standard league value for 2020-21 season

-Terrence Ross (all formats)

-Markelle Fultz (8-cat/points leagues)

-D.J. Augustin (8/9-cat)

-Michael Carter-Williams (8/9-cat)

-Mo Bamba (9-cat)

Upcoming Notable Free Agents

-Evan Fournier (player option of $17M in 2020-21)

-D.J. Augustin (unrestricted)

-Michael Carter-Williams (unrestricted)

-James Ennis (player option of $2.13M in 2020-21)

-Wes Iwundu (restricted)

Key Additions

-James Ennis (acquired via trade)

Key Departures

-Amile Jefferson (waived)

Upcoming Draft Picks

-2020 first round pick

-2020 second round pick

-2021 first round pick

-2021 second round pick

-2022 first round pick

-2022 second round pick

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Season So Far: Orlando Magic https://sportsethos.com/articles/hoop-ball-fantasy-basketball-features/season-so-far-orlando-magic/ https://sportsethos.com/articles/hoop-ball-fantasy-basketball-features/season-so-far-orlando-magic/#respond Tue, 28 Apr 2020 15:54:07 +0000 https://sportsethos.com/?p=297939 Before the NBA suspended games for the foreseeable future, the Orlando Magic had won three straight, including a 126-106 road victory over the Rockets.  They occupy second place in a poor Southeast Division and their 30-35 record was nevertheless good for a 5.5-game edge over the next best team in the Wizards.  By then, bumps in the road like blowing an 18-point lead during a December 30 loss to the Hawks seemed firmly in the rear view mirror. 

Orlando was likely headed to the postseason by jockeying for position with the Nets to finish in the Eastern Conference’s seven or eight seed despite some notable flaws. It would have meant two postseason trips in head coach Steve Clifford’s first pair of seasons behind the bench for the Magic. Despite being forced to leave a game on March 5 due to dizziness, Clifford certainly can point to some positive developments no matter what the league decides to do going forward.

Offseason Recap

GM John Hammond did well to retain free agents Nikola Vucevic and Terrence Ross last July on contracts widely considered to be favorable to the organization.  With the 16th overall pick, the team selected forward Chuma Okeke from Auburn, whose season was lost to a knee issue.  However, he agreed to sign a G League contract to last for a year prior to agreeing to an NBA pact.  Orlando’s second round pick, Talen Horton-Tucker, was sent to the Lakers for cash and a 2020 second rounder.

Hammond also signed Al-Farouq Aminu, who played just 18 games before suffering a season-ending injury. While Aminu barely made the top-200 in most predraft rankings, he was expected to provide depth. Hammond then inked Khem Birch and Michael Carter-Williams, both of whom have averaged under 20 minutes per game in 2019-20.

Emphasis on Prevention

Despite boasting the league’s most effective offense in the 11 games prior to the season being suspended, the Magic sit tied with the Jazz for 25th in the league when it comes to offensive pace. Their average number of possessions per game was 100.6.  Despite sitting in the middle of the pack with 17.8 team assists per contest and a rebound rate of 49.7 percent, the squad’s offensive efficiency ranked 22nd in the NBA. 

Their effective field-goal percentage of 50.3 percent bested only that of the Knicks and depleted Warriors, not the kind of offensive company one strives to keep.  Orlando’s ostensible playoff position is a product of both a weak Eastern Conference and ranking among the top ten in defensive efficiency by allowing 106.6 points per 100 possessions.

Magic Kingdom

They may not star in a Disney flick, but Vucevic and Aaron Gordon form a solid two-headed monster in the frontcourt.  The pair teamed up to do some special things at times this season, especially during a February 28 victory over the Wolves.  Gordon tallied his first ever triple-double by doing a variety of things well.  He scored in isolation, made pinpoint passes to teammates, and used feeds from Vucevic to score at the rim.  His final line read 17 points, 11 rebounds, 12 assists. 

Vucevic certainly had his moments in 2019-20 as well, including a March 2 performance against the Blazers during which he posted 30 points and 11 boards.  He also went for 30 points, 17 rebounds, and six assists at home versus the Wizards on November 17.  

However, unlike teammate Evan Fournier, who we’ll get to shortly, both big men took something of a step backward statistically.  Gordon’s best Player Efficiency Rating actually came during 2017-18, but his game improved after the Magic committed him to playing him at the four instead of small forward.  Gordon is sometimes a target of trade rumors because, like Jonathan Isaac, he is a strong defender who isn’t known for his long-range game.  However, Isaac’s issues staying on the court have in a way made Gordon seem far from expendable.  Also, Gordon arguably put on the most impressive showing at the Slam Dunk Contest despite being declared the runner-up behind Derrick Jones Jr.

Meanwhile, Vucevic saw his true shooting percentage drop from a career high 57.3 percent in 2018-19 to 54.0 percent this season which was more in line with his usual production.  Neither could he reproduce the 15.3 rebounds per 40 minutes posted the season prior, instead finishing at 13.5.  Still, the tandem was headed in a positive direction during February and March.  At age 24, Gordon has two seasons left on his current contract while Vucevic won’t become a free agent until the summer of 2023.

He’s Back

Evan Fournier shook off a subpar 2018-19 campaign to reward fantasy owners for selecting him at an average ADP of #135 in Yahoo leagues.  His 56.4 effective field-goal percentage led the squad and ranked fourth in the league among starting guards playing at least 50 games.  Fournier’s points per game jumped from 15.1 in 2018-19 to 18.8 despite receiving virtually identical minutes.  The 40.6 percent conversion rate on 3-pointers was a major part of that, but his field-goal success rate also rose more than three points compared to the previous campaign.  In short, Fournier enjoyed arguably his best production during his sixth season in a Magic uniform.  Fournier was ranked among the top-50 players overall in many circles, although his rest of season value appeared to take a hit when he got hurt less than two weeks before the season was suspended.

A major part of Fournier’s success comes from uncanny body control.  His quick cuts to the hoop make him a great target for passes.  When driving the lane, Fournier is able to lean around a defender and score with ease.  He’ll even guide his man into a screen and back up for an open three when the opportunity presents itself.  Fournier’s fine crossover move and aptitude for finishing through contract make a tough combination for anyone guarding him.  He’s also partial to the fadeaway jumper if the opposition seems too committed to preventing a layup.  

Solid Sixth Man

Ross turned out to be one of my better fantasy league pickups down the stretch this season.  While he struggled early on, he came out firing on all cylinders after the All-Star Break and leveraged his bench role into plenty of meaningful contributions.  During a seven-game streak in February and March, Ross hit over 50 percent of his 3-point attempts while averaging 23.7 points per game.  Ross also garnered headlines in January when he changed his jersey number from #8 to #31 as a tribute to the late Kobe Bryant. 

He is a superior shooter off of screen plays, leading the league with 4.3 such points per contest on those actions over the course of the season. All of his shooting numbers were down from 2018-19 in general, when Ross made a career best 87.5 percent from the charity stripe, but nevertheless, it was clear that Ross had turned a corner as the games became more meaningful.

Showing he’s a true man of the people, Ross solicited Netflix recommendations on Instagram Live after the NBA announced that it was suspending play indefinitely. And isn’t that what’s most important?

The Other Guys

The seventh Magic player to average double figure points was DJ Augustin.  In 2018-19, Augustin started 81 games, shooting 47 percent from the field and 42 percent from deep in the process.  However, the point guard made just 39 percent of field goals in a slightly smaller role this season.  The good news is that his ball distribution and rebounding did not suffer on a per-minute basis.  That didn’t stop him from being a lightning rod for fan disapproval, causing teammates to defend his value to the team.  According to Vucevic: “To accept a lesser role when you had a great year starting last year says a lot about him.” 

Despite an uneven season overall, Michael Carter-Williams had been on a tear in averaging 15.8 points in the four games before the world was seemingly brought to a halt.  Carter-Williams has always been a solid per-minute source of steals and he had his second best NBA season shooting the ball, hitting 43.2 percent from the field.  He’ll never be a world beater from further than midrange, though.

While Mo Bamba mixed in a bit more 3-point shooting, he was deployed in a depth role similar to that of his rookie year.  He averaged 1.4 blocks, second on the team behind Isaac.  That equates to a whopping 4.8 swats per 100 possessions. Improved free-throw shooting was also a bright spot.  However, Bamba’s age is sometimes revealed by the errors he makes from time to time. Regardless, it was a quality return for a player limited by significant injuries as a rookie.

A February trade brought James Ennis to Central Florida in exchange for a 2020 second-round draft choice.  He started 10 of the 12 games he played for the Magic, the seventh team for which he has played since the Hawks drafted him in 2013.  While his numbers don’t jump off the page, Ennis made his share of heady plays and Gordon looked very comfortable in his presence.  Even if he remains in Orlando, Ennis would be unlikely to start ahead of a healthy Isaac.  

Injury Bug

New Year’s Day proved to be infamous for Magic fans as Jonathan Isaac sprained his left knee and suffered a bone bruise while facing the Wizards. Isaac was far and away the squad leader in blocks with 2.4 per contest and added 1.6 steals per game.  He improved his field-goal shooting more than three percent year-over-year and sat at 46.3 percent on the season.  However, the sample size is a bit smaller than fantasy players would like because Isaac did not return to action after playing his 32nd game. Even with the small sample, expect Isaac to come at a hefty price in next year’s fantasy drafts after the defensive dynamo finished ranked 34/16 (8/9-cat) in per-game value.

As mentioned, Aminu’s season was derailed due to a knee injury that eventually required surgery in January. Despite some back and quad issues, Fournier appeared in 61 games before an elbow injury sidelined him on March 5.  Vucevic was lost for 11 straight games in November and December thanks to a sprained ankle.  In addition, Augustin was limited to 49 contests due to a knee ailment.

Cautious Optimism

When the Magic dealt for former #1 overall pick Markelle Fultz at the 2019 trade deadline, President of Basketball Operations Jeff Weltman pointed to his high ceiling as the primary reason for the trade.  While Fultz may never be able to live up to the original expectations, he did take a step forward a season after suffering from thoracic outlet syndrome while playing for the Sixers. 

Fultz had a career best 17 points per 40 minutes this season with significant jumps in field goal and free throw efficiency compared to his statistics with Philadelphia.  He shined in a January 15 victory over the Lakers while ending the night with 21 points, 11 rebounds, and 10 assists.  As Clifford put it: “There’s a reason that he was the No. 1 pick in a really talented draft class.’’ 

Fultz has demonstrated the ability to finish in traffic and bury 16-footers when the opposition collapses on a teammate.  He also leverages his size to obtain an edge against more diminutive point guards.  He’s not a top-100 guy yet, but not many would have predicted Fultz to boast 57 percent ownership in Yahoo leagues.

Look Ahead

Carter-Williams and Augustin are set to become free agents in the summer.  Wes Iwundu and Gary Clark are less impactful reserves who could also depart for greener pastures.  In addition, Fournier and James Ennis hold player options for the 2020-21 campaign.  Nevertheless, the Magic would rank sixth in the league in terms of cap space committed toward next season if Fournier exercises the $17 million option.  With the salary cap expected to be set around $115 million due to lost revenue, they seem unlikely to make any major moves in free agency.  However, a healthy squad seems likely to make another run at the postseason even if we have seen the last of the 2019-20 slate.

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Magic bolster forward rotation with James Ennis trade https://sportsethos.com/top-posts/magic-bolster-forward-rotation-with-james-ennis-trade/ https://sportsethos.com/top-posts/magic-bolster-forward-rotation-with-james-ennis-trade/#respond Fri, 07 Feb 2020 02:01:03 +0000 https://sportsethos.com/?p=286926 The Magic made a minor move on Thursday, acquiring James Ennis from the Sixers for a second-round pick before the deadline buzzer sounded.

The move doesn’t figure to have huge consequences, though it would be shocking if the second-round pick was on of consequence considering Philadelphia needed to unload Ennis in order to make space for their own deadline pickups, Alec Burks and Glenn Robinson.

Ennis had fallen out of favor in Philly, averaging 15.8 minutes per game on the season but slipping to a shade over 10 since the beginning of January. The career .356 3-point shooter is hitting his treys at a .349 rate this year – respectable but hardly a threat that forces defenses to change their tactics. At 6’6” and 210 pounds, he’ll give the Magic another depth piece to absorb some minutes at the forward spots. He’ll be competing with the likes of Aaron Gordon, Wesley Iwundu and Khem Birch, primarily, and while he offers more utility in certain matchups than Birch, it’s safe to say that Ennis has the lowest (i.e., nonexistent) upside of the bunch.

Low upside won’t preclude him from carving out a healthy role, however, as Ennis is definitely capable of outplaying Iwundu and Birch given his higher floor as a shooter.

There’s a certain degree of dependability there, and that may come in handy as Orlando tries to stave off Chicago for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. It’s been a letdown season for the Magic after a strong surge down the stretch last year, and the injury to Jonathan Isaac basically eliminated any real expectations for the team this time around.

Ennis does have a player option worth $2.1 million for next season, though he may decline it to seek more playing time – next year his path to minutes in Orlando will be blocked by not only Isaac but also Al-Farouq Aminu, who is recovering from a torn meniscus.

To make room for Ennis, the Magic waived forward Amile Jefferson. He has appeared in 30 games across two seasons with Orlando and has averaged 18.1 points, 12.3 rebounds, 0.8 steals and 0.7 blocks while shooting 60.8 percent from the field in 84 G League contests.

The decision likely came down to Jefferson or current 10-day contract player Gary Clark, which portends well for Clark’s near-term future with the Magic.

Ennis is unlikely to move the needle for Orlando, but the Magic didn’t give up much to get him and still may have gotten an upgrade on their current placeholder starters.

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Jonathan Isaac’s injury could create a battle for East’s final playoff spot https://sportsethos.com/top-posts/jonathan-isaacs-injury-could-create-a-battle-for-easts-final-playoff-spot/ https://sportsethos.com/top-posts/jonathan-isaacs-injury-could-create-a-battle-for-easts-final-playoff-spot/#respond Mon, 06 Jan 2020 00:59:49 +0000 https://sportsethos.com/?p=279048 With news that Jonathan Isaac will miss at least two months, the bottom of the Eastern Conference playoff picture could become wide open.

The first six spots are very much spoken for, and the Nets figure to have a strong grip on the seventh spot given their .500 record and their spotty health so far.

Orlando, a strong second-half team from last season, and one of the tougher outs among the clear underdogs in last year’s first round, sits eighth at a disappointing 16-20. They have a two-game lead over the Hornets and a three-game lead over the Bulls and Pistons, clearly the top team in the East’s third tier, but their margin for error has thinned considerably with the loss of Isaac.

It’s safe to argue that Isaac is the Magic’s second most irreplaceable player, behind only All-Star Nikola Vucevic – and any discussion of Orlando’s current standing has to come with a mention that Vucevic missed multiple weeks with his own injury.

Isaac gives the Magic an elite, versatile defensive threat and is really the only player on the roster capable of making a significant impact out of the small forward slot.

Up to when Isaac got hurt on January 1, the Magic had a 105.1 defensive rating with him on court and a 105.4 mark with him off the floor. That’s not a huge gap but it’s safe to say that some of that is a result of the lineups and players that Isaac is defending. Among Orlando’s starters, only Vucevic also improves the team’s defensive rating when he’s on the floor, with Markelle Fultz, Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier sitting at a differential of 2.9 or worse.

Among Isaac’s most frequent defensive covers (in terms of possessions per game) this season have been Lauri Markkanen, Kristaps Porzingis, Pascal Siakam, Julius Randle, Blake Griffin, Jaren Jackson Jr., Davis Bertans, Myles Turner, Bojan Bogdanovic and Anthony Daivs. That is a wide variety of offensive skill, and with Al-Farouq Aminu also shelved for a lengthy period, it’s tough to see how any one player can be counted on to even try and absorb Isaac’s defensive burden.

Most impressive among that list is Isaac’s performance against Davis, the one certified elite player on it. He shot 1-for-6 in 21.9 partial possessions while being guarded by Isaac, with the Lakers scoring 17 points as a team in that time.

While the big loss will be felt on that end, don’t let it overshadow Isaac’s growth as a more complete player in general.

Offensively, Isaac has been able to improve his efficiency even as his usage has increased. He’s sporting career-highs in field goal attempts (10.1), usage (18.1), field goal percentage (.463) and true shooting percentage (.542).

He’s getting a slightly different diet of shots as well, with more pull-ups and less catch-and-shoot looks, as well as more shots coming off longer periods with the ball in his hands. That extra activity may also be what’s driving a career-high in assist rate (7.0). Over a third of Isaac’s buckets have come unassisted whereas fewer than 24 percent of his makes were unassisted in each of his first two seasons.

Obviously the defense is going to be a major problem since that’s where Orlando has chosen to plant its flag. Under Steve Clifford, the Magic are aiming to be one of the league’s elite defenses and grind games to a mucky halt. That task becomes far more difficult with the team down its two best defensive forwards, and now the Magic won’t be able to push the limits of Isaac’s burgeoning offensive play to help make up for a defense that has been merely ‘pretty good’ so far.

While the Magic are still in the catbird seat in terms of the final playoff spot in the East, the loss of Isaac is significant. It’s at least cracked the door open for the teams beneath Orlando, who all are looking to make the postseason despite their differing organizational timelines.

For the Pistons, who have made bold moves to try and brute-force their way into the playoffs, or even the up-and-coming Hornets and Bulls, this could be a major opportunity to make legitimate forward progress. Maybe even the Hawks find their stride and mount a charge over the second half. Regardless of which low-tier contender has eyes on the spot, the absence of Isaac improves the odds. And while nobody in this field is likely to make much noise in the postseason, just getting there has the potential to save jobs, earn contracts, you name it.

The Magic have lost their rising star, and will now have to turn to their bench for a serious lift. Wesley Iwundu, Khem Birch, Michael Carter-Williams (when healthy) and maybe even Amile Jefferson are all going to be tasked with heavy lifting. Perhaps this larger role can get Aaron Gordon snapped out of his year-long funk. How they respond, and whether the teams below them can get their houses in order, could have a lasting effect on the Eastern Conference landscape.

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What to watch for in the preseason: Eastern Conference edition https://sportsethos.com/articles/nba-teams/what-to-watch-for-in-the-preseason-eastern-conference-edition/ https://sportsethos.com/articles/nba-teams/what-to-watch-for-in-the-preseason-eastern-conference-edition/#respond Tue, 08 Oct 2019 00:54:28 +0000 https://sportsethos.com/?p=249745 The preseason is a sign of relief for most basketball fans. It’s not quite the real deal but it’s miles away from the sloppy, admittedly fun, anarchy of Summer League. Though some teams are getting their feet wet against inferior international competition, and with swaths of players that won’t see the court once the games start to count, preseason is the basketball world’s version of the leaves turning.

Fun times are ahead, and this exhibition season gives folks a glimpse at drawing meaningful conclusions – the UDFA who scores 25 points might not end up playing outside of garbage time but fans will be able to sink their teeth into rotations, lineups and find out who was lying about reworking their jump shot in the summer.

The Eastern Conference especially finds itself in a state of flux. LeBron James’ departure swung the door wide open, with Masai Ujiri’s Raptors taking some bold steps to be the first team through. Now that Kawhi Leonard is gone, the Celtics’ presumed title core has been rejiggered and the Sixers’ Big 4 approach has been altered, it’s shaping up like a free-for-all with a widening group of potential contenders.

We’ll run through the West later in the week, but for now here are some Eastern Conference stories to watch out for in the preseason.

Atlanta Hawks

How NBA-ready is Bruno Fernando?

The Hawks look to have some long-term answers at four of the five spots on the floor, with the lone exception coming at center. Alex Len showed up as a vastly improved shooter last season and will enter this year as the starter, but that’s a stopgap solution for a team hoping to ride its young core to contention in the near-ish future.

Enter Bruno Fernando, who should immediately fit in as a rim-runner and rebounder. His pivotal role in Maryland’s offense should serve him well even if he won’t be tasked with much playmaking this season, and the question is whether Fernando’s limited offensive game can hold up in extended minutes. Defensively he’ll be able to provide rim protection, but lateral quickness could be an issue and teams will surely target him in space.

If Fernando looks the part of a ready-made NBA center, he could quickly flip the split of playing time so the Hawks can get a better look at how their long-term pieces fit together. Don’t expect the Hawks to force the issue, but they would undoubtedly be happy if Fernando developed quickly.

Boston Celtics

Offense or defense at center?

When the Celtics signed Enes Kanter, it was assumed that he would slot right in as the team’s starter, replacing Aron Baynes and Al Horford. While Kanter is coming off a solid playoff run after rotting away on the bench in New York, his game does come with extensive defensive deficiencies. Depending on how Brad Stevens wants his team to look, it’s possible that we see one of the other candidates assert themselves as a viable option.

Robert Williams, who started the team’s first preseason contest, is the likely frontrunner of the non-Kanter field. While he fills an extremely narrow lane on offense, he would give the Celtics a potentially elite rim protector and offers the most upside of anyone in the group. Should Stevens opt for a more intimidating defensive group, Williams is the easy call.

There’s also the notion that Kanter can be used as more of a matchup type, drawing the starts against burly centers while coming off the bench to dominate weaker opponents in other games. It’s not dissimilar to how the Raptors used Jonas Valanciunas or how the Bucks used to use Greg Monroe.

Perhaps Daniel Theis, whose versatile game can serve as a happy medium, will stand out. He’ll require fewer offensive touches than Kanter and offers the best spacing of all the options. Newcomer Vincent Poirier will also be competing for time. The Celtics lost a ton of production at the center spot this summer and Stevens now has the chance to remold the team with a distinct new identity. Which player he chooses, assuming nobody asserts themselves entirely as a result of their play, should be revealing.

Brooklyn Nets

Kenny Atkinson’s ‘good problem’ in the backcourt

The Nets have reached the mountaintop, or at least gone as high as you can without having played any games yet. They bottomed out but rebuilt the team in such a way that they could attract two superstar talents. Brooklyn has collected a number of quality players to complement its big pieces, and Kenny Atkinson’s deep rotations have helped develop a lot of players in meaningful situations.

The Nets have received quality play from D’Angelo Russell, Spencer Dinwiddie, Joe Harris and Caris LeVert, among others, over the last few seasons. While the team gets credit for helping these players blossom, they’ve all been aided by some lucky breaks. Dinwiddie first broke onto the scene when Jeremy Lin got hurt and became a mainstay when Russell went down in 2017-18. Russell really broke out last season after LeVert went down, and LeVert returned to the lineup while Dinwiddie was sidelined.

While injuries will inevitably strike, Atkinson’s juggling task will only get tougher as each player continues to grow. With four starting-caliber guards, and the presence of Taurean Prince and Rodions Kurucs (and eventually Kevin Durant) soaking up minutes at small forward, the Nets will need to strike a careful balance to make sure everyone gets fed. Brooklyn’s rotation is always busy but we’ll be keeping a close eye on the playing time throughout the preseason.

Charlotte Hornets

Can Willy Hernangomez get it together?

The offensively gifted 25-year-old seems to be running out of chances. The Knicks punted him from the rotation despite a solid rookie campaign, and Hernangomez couldn’t gain any traction after being traded to Charlotte. The team couldn’t afford to deal with his shortcomings last season while they were trying to make the playoffs and convince Kemba Walker to stick around, but there’s really no excuse for Hernangomez to be an occasional DNP-CD this season.

The defense will always be problematic, but the setup is perfect for the Hornets to just grin and bear it. If Hernangomez can’t establish himself as the clear backup to the oft-injured Cody Zeller by beating out the oft-injured Bismack Biyombo, it might just be the final straw. There’s enough offensive skill to keep a rebuilding team interested, but eventually the rubber has to hit the road.

Chicago Bulls

The Kris Dunn dilemma

Dunn was given the starting nod for Chicago’s preseason opener but the team’s actions point to a different long-term vision. They can pump up Tomas Satoransky and Shaq Harrison as guys who can play 1-3 as much as they’d like, but to play them anywhere other than point guard is a major disservice to both them and the team.

That said, Dunn could very well play his way back into the mix with a strong preseason. He’ll have limited opportunities with the Bulls mixing and matching their lineups to get a good look at all four PGs on the roster but it’s not out of the question that he outplays his counterparts. A trade still seems likely at some point but stranger things have happened and we’re likely to see a highly motivated version of Dunn, who went from potential franchise guard to potential DNP-CD in a hurry.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Garland & Sexton

The Cavs took a bit of a risk in drafting Darius Garland fifth overall after he was felled for the season by a torn meniscus in November. Doubly so considering they just took a point guard in the lottery, grabbing Collin Sexton last summer. How these two coexist will determine a lot about Cleveland’s future, and with both more inclined to be scorers we’ll be watching closely to see how things shake out.

Sexton struggled mightily with efficiency last season before a strong burst at the finish, and he still needs some work in terms of shot selection. Garland offers better range and is more of a dynamic scorer in general, but neither really fits a traditional playmaking mold. It can certainly work with the two splitting that load, but how they find a groove playing side by side is going to be the story of the preseason for the Cavs. Keep a close eye on how both players manage without the ball in their hands.

Detroit Pistons

Christian Wood’s big break?

It’s been two seasons of Christian Wood throttling inferior competition, and even a big finish with the Pelicans couldn’t get him a guaranteed spot. It looks as though he’ll be competing with Joe Johnson for the final spot on Detroit’s roster. It’s an interesting battle in that the two competitors provide entirely different things, so Dwane Casey may already have a good idea of who the frontrunner is even if there’s nothing being said publicly.

There’s some dynamic talent at play, and Wood would seem to offer a bit more all-around upside than Thon Maker or Markieff Morris. If the Pistons, who are hoping to actually make noise in the playoffs, and Casey, who has historically had a hard time deviating from plans until his hand is forced, want the safe route, then Wood is going to be facing an uphill battle.

Indiana Pacers

Myles Turner’s shooting

The Pacers are going a little old school with their frontcourt combo of Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis. Most teams are riding with better shooting out of the power forward slots, but Turner and Sabonis are clearly Indiana’s two most talented big men and it’s well worth it to figure out how the pairing functions, and how they can thrive together long-term. There’s pretty clear evidence that Sabonis works best in the paint, so most of the adjusting figures to fall to Turner.

He’ll need to spend more time outside the arc, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him cutting in and out of the paint quickly to give Sabonis room to operate on offense. Turner is a .363 career deep shooter with notable progress in each year of his career, culminating in last season’s .388 mark. Expect him to easily eclipse last year’s career-high 2.6 3-point attempts per game and look out for where those attempts are coming – Turner shot .625 from the corners last season but only took 16 attempts. He took 179 of his threes above the break, hitting at a .369 clip.

Miami Heat

Justise Winslow’s versatility, or lack thereof

Winslow entered the league as a do-it-all prospect who could switch across multiple positions, which sort of left him in no man’s land on a Miami roster that had a few similar players. Eventually, the question has to be asked: if you play multiple positions but never truly excel at any of them, are you really versatile after all?

Luckily, Winslow seemed to find his calling as the fill-in point guard when Goran Dragic was injured last season. It’s a position that he’s been vocal about playing going forward, except the Heat have been committed to Dragic as their PG for as long as he’s on the roster. That might be a little bit of lip service considering they tried to trade him this summer, but it’s unlikely that The Dragon would be shuttled aside right away. How those two split the role is going to have a big say in Miami’s results this year, and with expectations cranked up as a result of the Jimmy Butler acquisition, the Heat may face a tough decision.

Winslow has more of a future in Miami than the 33-year-old Dragic. How much are the Heat willing to sacrifice his development at a position where he finally looks comfortable?

Milwaukee Bucks

Who fills the void in Malcolm Brogdon’s absence?

The Bucks predictably found success by stuffing the roster with shooters that can play off of Giannis Antetokounmpo’s elite penetration game. Though they’re still clearly one of the top teams in the East, Milwaukee may struggle to replace Malcolm Brogdon – the team’s fourth-leading assist man and a .408 career 3-point shooter.

Wesley Matthews and Kyle Korver have been brought in but neither can fill the playmaking shoes, and the Bucks’ second units could have trouble with scoring without a clear leader and efficient perimeter scorer who can create his own shot. Perhaps Khris Middleton, who was frustrated by his new role at times last season, is asked to handle a lot of that load.

New York Knicks

Frank Ntilikina

The Knicks’ brass likes to talk a lot. It’s David Fizdale who said that Lance Thomas could be New York’s version of Draymond Green, after all, so you can excuse anyone who chooses to take any audio from MSG with a big grain of salt. Allegedly, the Knicks will have a competition for the point guard spot this season. Allegedly, Frank Ntilikina is part of it.

That’s pretty inconsistent with all the rumors surrounding Ntilikina’s future with the organization, but perhaps New York will bank on a strong World Cup performance creating enough confidence to get Frankie Smokes rolling out of the gates. Odds are that Ntilikina’s NBA career will be best-served by a move to another organization – the Knicks haven’t exercised their option on him yet, after all – but he just might be able to salvage things. New York was very quick to give up on a raw player with obvious defensive merit, and while that’s on brand for the Knicks, some quick proof of improvement could change their tune.

Orlando Magic

Al-Farouq Aminu’s role

It was a bit curious that the Magic signed Al-Farouq Aminu this summer when they have Aaron Gordon and Jonathan Isaac already in the fold, but it’s a move that made more sense after some marinating.

The Magic became a stifling defensive team last season, and Aminu has experience taking on the tough matchups in Portland. Aminu will also provide a little bit of a boost to a team that shot .321 from deep last year and can also chip in on the glass. He’ll help bolster a bench unit that wavered in terms of impact (aside from Terrence Ross) last season and can be elevated into a larger role if need be. Simply put, he’s the sort of defender and complementary contributor that Steve Clifford is likely to love.

His signing is a win-now move from a team that’s really buying into last year’s big step forward, and it’s going to be interesting to see if his steady play can take minutes from either Gordon or Isaac.

Philadelphia 76ers

Josh Richardson’s offensive fit

Richardson is a nice get for Philadelphia, who acquired an ascendant two-way guard in exchange for sending Jimmy Butler to Miami. Over the course of his first four seasons with the Heat, Richardson rose through the pecking order and set a career-high in usage in each campaign. That figures to change in Philly, where he could be look at as the low man on the totem pole.

Although Richardson’s game and flighty efficiency might actually shine with a more limited set of responsibilities, it will be an adjustment for a player who has been on a linear progression as a primary offensive weapon. He’ll be counted on to stretch the floor and will be a major part of the elite defense that the Sixers have assembled (on paper), but we may be able to learn a bit about the team’s offensive plans for Richardson in the preseason. Teams with lots of overhaul tend to deploy their real rotation guys the most in the exhibition season so the Sixers might provide some insightful games.

Toronto Raptors

The big lineup

The Raptors have a ton of changes to work through given their high-profile departures, but despite the huge vacancies at the two and three spots it’ll be how they deploy their three best forwards that merits watching. The combination of Marc Gasol, Serge Ibaka and Pascal Siakam played 37 minutes together in the playoffs – after playing zero minutes in the regular season – to a 97.1 ORTG and a 101.5 DRTG, though the added size was crucial in keeping the Sixers off the glass in the postseason.

It would be wise for the Raptors to give Siakam as many minutes as possible at different positions to find the limits of his versatility and although Ibaka found great success as a full-time center, the Raptors are likely short on the shooting that can allow him to really shine as a dump-off or mid-range option on offense. Gasol’s game is malleable enough to fit with most players, especially if a climb in the pecking order eliminates the passivity that defined his worst playoff performances.

This is a team that will lean heavily on its defense this season. Getting their smartest defender, their best rim protector and most athletic player on the court at the same time is going to fit that vibe. At the very least it’s a lineup worth exploring further.

Washington Wizards

Davis Bertans, besides the shooting

It’s already established that Bertans is one of the league’s elite sharpshooters among big men. The Marcus Morris free agency flip-flop took Bertans from a great basketball program in San Antonio, but it sent him to a fantastic opportunity in Washington. It looks as though he’ll enter the season as a starter, and the big question is how well the rest of his game can hold up.

Although Bertans has developed nicely, it’s fair to say that there was a limit on his ceiling with the Spurs. The team was too good to tolerate potential growing pains, and they’ve had capable forwards in place for as long as he was on the roster. Washington isn’t expected to make much noise this season and it’s an environment where Bertans should be tested. The team will be able to let him play through mistakes and carry a heavier burden than he would’ve with the Spurs.

Though his bread-and-butter skill will keep Bertans in the league for a while, he’ll be afforded the chance to shed his reputation as a one-dimensional player. If he looks like a capable defender in the preseason, expect the expectations and excitement to quietly rachet up.

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